Are we experiencing the calm before the storm?

[Quackers]

I'm already positioning myself for a fascist takeover. Just saying. That's where the smart (Goldman Sachs') money is.

Bought a huge tub of white face paint? Or is it gonna be aborginal fascism? Or Yellow fascism!

 

[aelf]

Fear from what? Hatred against whom? I am asking those questions because the reasoning (a hyperbole, I beg your forgiveness) "uncertain economic times -> fears -> that's something the Nazis used -> authoritarian regimes built on fear and hatred" strikes me as very simplistic and inconclusive.

Uh, I did say it's not because of dire economic straits, did I not?

I'm not postulating any chain of events. I'm not sure where you got that impression. I said the Nazis used fear to gain power. Yes, many groups do that, but the Nazis were very effective at it, yes? Are they not after all a "political movement" and not a particular species of demons?

Anyway, maybe you missed the whole War on Terror thing, because that is an example of how liberties have been eroded for the sake of security. And of course fear has been a big part of the highly effective propaganda war that has been waged in the aftermath of 9/11.

Before you jump to conclusions, no, I'm not saying that the US government is comparable to the Nazis. But with xenophobia, Islamophobia and general social tensions on the rise (in part because of economic uncertainty, granted), I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that a right-wing brand of fearmongering authoritarianism may be back in vogue within the next few decades (depending on what happens, of course). "Democracy" and "freedom" will still be part of the discourse and that may just be enough to convince people that nothing's really changed.

 

[Masada]

Bought a huge tub of white face paint? Or is it gonna be aborginal fascism? Or Yellow fascism!

You'd be confusing Fascism with Nazism. Two rather distinct entities. Besides, it'll be an Asian dictatorship. White people are lazy proles.

 

[Antilogic]

@Antilogic
Yeah, it is pretty outrageous that the EU hasn't drawn a line in the sand. At least it is my understanding that the EU requires members to in principle embrace it, which Hungary seems to have ceased doing. But, like Romania and other nations, Hungary never stroke me as a settled democracy to begin with.

I don't really expect the EU to draw a line in the sand--they are far more of a loose confederation than any sort of actual governing body. When push comes to shove, they won't push.

I could see several minor states, like Hungary, going towards a more absolutist/authoritarian form of government, but I'm not sure their impact on global politics will be enough to cause storm hinted at in the OP.

 

[luiz]

I think this entire post is hyperbole and overly pessimistic. The EU and USA economies are still the two largest in the world. It will take a century of recession to even see them surpassed, let alone completely fail. I am not of the opinion that China's economy will grow like it has forever. But, even if it does, the EU and USA economies will still be top three.

Actually China is expected to surpass the US by 2018.

 

[Cutlass]

Actually China is expected to surpass the US by 2018.

China will triple in 6 year while the US doesn't grow at all?

 

[Lord of Elves]

China will triple in 6 year while the US doesn't grow at all?

The Chinese juggernaut is unstoppable. Their massive numbers of agrarian poor, huge wealth disparities, and growing liberal movement ensures that the secretive and vaguely dictatorial party structure will never fall.

Hide your beautiful, beautiful children while you still can, Fu Manchu will kill us all!

 

[GamezRule]

You know, I've always wondered why we say that China is such a threat, yet we do nothing to fix our population disparity.

I am of the opinion that the USA should form Oceania.

 

[Narz]

Yeah, of course it's the calm before the storm. We've built an unsustainable world for ourselves. Underpinning all our advances in human rights has been increasing standard of living for people all over the world. As that starts to slip in the other direction due to energy (peak oil, etc.), political & environmental pressures things will get ugly.

The growth model will have to give way & like all addictions the recovery process won't be pretty.

Chances are the Earth cannot sustainably house all 7+ billion of us. This is taboo to speak about because the implications are a bit terrifying. Also terrifying is how utterly dependent the US specifically is dependent on personal motor vehicle transportation & other nations doing our dirty work for us.

When the USSR collapsed things weren't pretty exactly but it wasn't the end of the world for most people. When the US collapses it will be a lot worse I suspect. Americans are a lot softer & have more of a sense of entitlement than Russians & other Soviets.

The idea that the period from the 1940's to 2008 was "normal" and eventually we'll get back to that normalacy is a fiction, an opiate of the masses so to speak.

 

[Takhisis]

The last decades have been relatively peaceful for the western world. There have been no great war between developed country for decades. And apart from former Yugoslavia, there haven't been any civil wars in the western world either. Of course there's has been the occasional terror attack, but compared to a real war that's nothing.

But now I feel that tensions are rising. At the moment economies seem to be crumbling. I think the current situation will be solved, but as some guy once said: When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

But seriously. What will happen if capitalism has finally run it's course for the western world, and the European and American economies completely fail. Is it possible that some countries will elect untrustworthy politicians into office, like the Germans did in 1933, and everything will escalate from there? Or will we just live with our miserable economies like the Japanese have done for the last twenty years?

Capitalism has finally run its course? Lolwut? It was in full force before both World Wars, it's simply that now titles are gone so on the surface you have 'class equality' but there's still oligarchies and aristocrats everywhere.

The American people and their righteous might will not allow another Great War to happen.

I thought it was the mighteous right. Maybe it's the same?

You know, I've always wondered why we say that China is such a threat, yet we do nothing to fix our population disparity.

The Mormons have been setting an example for decades and you people don't listen.

I am of the opinion that the USA should form Oceania.

You only think the US borders Mexico and such. Never left your hometown, eh?

 

[classical_hero]

Actually China is expected to surpass the US by 2018.

China could slump just as quickly since it does appear that a lot of the growth is not natural and that could come back and hurt them later on.

 

[Disgustipated]

Americans are too fat, dumb, and lazy to overthrow their government. As long as American idol keeps pushing through to their televisions, they are content. Television will subdue the masses.

 

[Winner]

But now I feel that tensions are rising. At the moment economies seem to be crumbling. I think the current situation will be solved, but as some guy once said: When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

If this is what a "crumbling economy" looks like, I am not worried. So perhaps Europe won't grow as "fast" as it used to, so bloody what? We don't have a rapidly growing population where hundreds of thousands of new jobs are required every year to keep the unemployment at bay. Even with a very slow grow, our living standard will be maintained at the very least.

The challenge of the tomorrow is to reconcile modern industrial civilization with the needs to preserve the environment. I think we're much better poised to do that than the developing countries or the really poor ones.

But seriously. What will happen if capitalism has finally run it's course for the western world,

It's more like the present-day form of capitalism will be supplanted by one that will be a bit better. More just, if we're lucky. I say bring it on.

and the European and American economies completely fail.

Do you realize that the success of the developing countries (the so-called BRICs and all the rest) is ENTIRELY dependent on the West? Without USA and Europe as markets for Chinese goods, the Chinese economy would crumble like a house of cards.

Is it possible that some countries will elect untrustworthy politicians into office, like the Germans did in 1933, and everything will escalate from there? Or will we just live with our miserable economies like the Japanese have done for the last twenty years?

First, Japan has high living standards, low unemployment, and an export-driven hi-tech economy. If you want to see miserable, look at Africa. Second, the chance that some new form of totalitarianism would take root in the West is remote, especially in Europe which has an experience with the two previous attempts. Maybe the Middle East will breed something new (Islamism), but not the West.

In short, don't let the doom&gloom spread by the media get to you.

Has anyone been paying attention to Hungary recently? Some of their constitutional changes are alarming to say the least. However, Hungary isn't exactly the foreign country that tops the "fear list".

I've been following the situation with one eye. It's worrisome, but I expect Orbán to fail utterly in the next elections. The next government will undo the craziest of his "reforms". Especially if they drive Hungary to bankruptcy.

I am actually glad we have such a country here in Central Europe, it serves as the perfect cautionary tale.

 

[Monsterzuma]

Actually China is expected to surpass the US by 2018.

China will triple in 6 year while the US doesn't grow at all?

claims like those usually involve purchasing power adjustment in the GDP calculation. this makes the Chinese economy look about 1.7 times as strong due to the low price level from low labor costs. I'm not 100% cynical about doing this, because not mentioning the price level at all in the comparison leaves a major advantage of China's out of the picture.

China could slump just as quickly since it does appear that a lot of the growth is not natural and that could come back and hurt them later on.

of course none of this could be said about the US or anything.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Capitalism itself won't have run it's course, it's just liberal ideologcal version that's showing cracks. For the time being the US seem to be determinded to dig themselves deeper, thanks to FREEDOM and and the fear of SOCIALISM, but the occupy movement gives me hope that people are finally catching on.
Europe is in better shape than many people seem to think. Germany is doing very well, although everybody (especially the Germans) is dumbfounded about it, France has recently been downgraded by S&P and nobody seems to care, Italy is currently under repair and while our collective handling of the crisis leaves a lot to be desired, it's not a complete failure either. Greece is admittedly a mess and I don't know when and how it will be sorted out, but Greece is a relatively small part of the EU economy. I think they'll need to temporarily leave the Eurozone and could be readmitted in ten or twenty years after a thorough screening process.
Hungary is worrying, but it's again a very small country and the EU has enough carrots and sticks to deal with them. Victor Hugo said every war between Europeans is a civil war, and I'm convinced we'll fight our civil wars with words and money in the foreseeable future, and Orban will lose this one.

The Japanese and the EU and to some extent many others have been subsidized by US deficit defense spending which will at some point recede.

Wrooong ! The military spending of the EU contries combined is about twice as large as that of China and Russia combined. If you guys need to scale back your military expenditures, then by all means do it. Don't worry about us, we'll be fine.
The only country that is capable to pose a credible military threat to the EU is the USA.
Japan is a different matter. The still have a constitution that forbids them an actual military and restricts defense spending, but that's a Japanese political problem, not an economic one.

 

[CavLancer]

I figure the EU, minus Greece, will be driving towards Moscow within a very few years. They might get stopped before Moscow and freeze, or they might take it and it catches fire and then they freeze. The world economy cannot recover until some European armies freeze around Moscow. Any Historical Military Economist will tell you that.

 

[holy king]

The idea that the person from the 1940's to 2008 was "normal" and eventually we'll get back to that normalacy is a fiction, an opiate of the masses so to speak.

what has little fascist from 1940, ready to conquer the world to do with the socialist insurgent who just ended up in gestapo custody, with the jew worrying about what the future will bring him, with the woman from 1945, desperately starting to rebuild a completely demolished urban center while on the verge of starving, with the broken man returning from russian war capitivity?

what do all these people have to do with me, having been born in the 80s, enjoying a relative wealth that is now starting to decline a little bit?

why would anyone postulate that something like a "1940s to 2008 person" actually exists, when there are so many persons living so fundamentally different lives within even a very limited geographic area such as austria?

I figure the EU, minus Greece, will be driving towards Moscow within a very few years. They might get stopped before Moscow and freeze, or they might take it and it catches fire and then they freeze. The world economy cannot recover until some European armies freeze around Moscow. Any Historical Military Economist will tell you that.

sign me up.

 

[Winner]

I figure the EU, minus Greece, will be driving towards Moscow within a very few years. They might get stopped before Moscow and freeze, or they might take it and it catches fire and then they freeze. The world economy cannot recover until some European armies freeze around Moscow. Any Historical Military Economist will tell you that.

Why? The Russians seem intent on defeating themselves by tolerating a government that keeps screwing Russia's future as much a humanely possible.

But maybe we could let the Greeks invade it this time, while the rest of us watch the show

 

[NedimNapoleon]

If this is what a "crumbling economy" looks like, I am not worried. So perhaps Europe won't grow as "fast" as it used to, so bloody what? We don't have a rapidly growing population where hundreds of thousands of new jobs are required every year to keep the unemployment at bay. Even with a very slow grow, our living standard will be maintained at the very least.

You can always import turks and arabs they have a high population boom

 

[Kyriakos]

Well a new WW will be the end anyway. Can't really see nuclear powers from both sides taking part and no nuke being fired.
Time to leave the Matrix