Are we experiencing the calm before the storm?

[Narz]

holy king, I mistyped, I meant period, not person.

 

[Antilogic]

I've been following the situation with one eye. It's worrisome, but I expect Orbán to fail utterly in the next elections. The next government will undo the craziest of his "reforms". Especially if they drive Hungary to bankruptcy.

I am actually glad we have such a country here in Central Europe, it serves as the perfect cautionary tale.

This is a possibility--I haven't seen the polls on his popularity. I'd assume changing their constitution to undo some of those "reforms" would require another 2/3rds majority, so it won't be easy even if Orbán's party loses the next set of elections--they would have to be swept out.

 

[CavLancer]

Why? The Russians seem intent on defeating themselves by tolerating a government that keeps screwing Russia's future as much a humanely possible.

But maybe we could let the Greeks invade it this time, while the rest of us watch the show

I should say for the energy supplies, though no point in Baku. Have to keep pushing a bit farther these days.

Were the Greeks to invade Russia I would say its only fair that someone should inform the Russians.

 

[Winner]

This is a possibility--I haven't seen the polls on his popularity. I'd assume changing their constitution to undo some of those "reforms" would require another 2/3rds majority, so it won't be easy even if Orbán's party loses the next set of elections--they would have to be swept out.

I understand that, but without Orbán in power, there will be nobody to enforce his draconian measures to curb the press freedom, for example.

I should say for the energy supplies, though no point in Baku. Have to keep pushing a bit farther these days.

There's no need to invade, they're quite willing to sell them to us so that their rotten regime can maintain an illusion of economic growth and social progress. I know, I know, Europe has grown very boring since 1989, but we like it that way after all the fun we've had in the last century. Perhaps you guys could have a little fun on your own now, try and invade someone with a strength to fight back for a change Someone far, far away, preferably - China, India, Brazil, someone like that.

 

[luiz]

China will triple in 6 year while the US doesn't grow at all?

The Chinese GDP in current excahnge rate is already over half of the American. In PPP it is about two thirds. 2018 is the best guess of the IMF and The Economist. There's virtually no chance that they won't be number one by the aearly 2020's.

 

[holy king]

holy king, I mistyped, I meant period, not person.

still, the 40s to 2008 hardly is a consistent period, not even in very limited geographical areas.

 

[Joecoolyo]

My prediction: The recession will end, China will not be able to safely keep it's absurd momentum up and slow down, and the world won't collapse just like it didn't after every other damn recession we've had.

You're all a bunch of nutters.

 

[kramerfan86]

Im pretty young relatively speaking (25), so does anyone who is a little bit older know if people usually lose their minds like this every recession or is there just something special about this one that has people proclaiming its the end times?

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

Im pretty young relatively speaking (25), so does anyone who is a little bit older know if people usually lose their minds like this every recession or is there just something special about this one that has people proclaiming its the end times?

No buddy, you have been long enough around to live in 3-4 recessions.
But this time it may be little more complex. There seem to be demand for political, social as well as economical/financial changes together with evolution of spirit. I guess no one knows what is coming but most feel quite rightly that progress has to be made to bring some deeper satisfaction.

 

[Glassfan]

Keeping in mind that US and EU GDP are each well north of $14 trillion dollars, that both entities are reasonably stable democracies with constitutional traditions, the rule of law and more than adaquate military defense, I'm willing to believe I'll live to see my 401(k) be spent, and that I'll die peacefully in bed.

 

[kramerfan86]

No buddy, you have been long enough around to live in 3-4 recessions.
But this time it may be little more complex. There seem to be demand for political, social as well as economical/financial changes together with evolution of spirit. I guess no one knows what is coming but most feel quite rightly that progress has to be made to bring some deeper satisfaction.

Yea but do you think I was actually paying much political attention when I was the age I was during the other recessions? That's why I was asking someone a little older than me to weigh in since they would have actually been at an age where they were paying attention to other people's commentary on the situation.

 

[Glassfan]

Yea but do you think I was actually paying much political attention when I was the age I was during the other recessions? That's why I was asking someone a little older than me to weigh in since they would have actually been at an age where they were paying attention to other people's commentary on the situation.

The only wisdon we old-timers can offer is that recessions have always ended in the past and we'd expect them to continue to do so in the future. People start spending again, start-ups happen, companies hire, the economic indicators go positive.

 

[Godwynn]

We're in the storm before the calm.

 

[G-Max]

I think this entire post is hyperbole and overly pessimistic. The EU and USA economies are still the two largest in the world.

Our debts are also the largest in the world and the economy is a house of cards. There's more to consider than just GDP.

 

[Glassfan]

There's more to consider than just GDP.

Indeed. In the States we also have the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which have been growing positive in recent months.

 

[Antilogic]

Im pretty young relatively speaking (25), so does anyone who is a little bit older know if people usually lose their minds like this every recession or is there just something special about this one that has people proclaiming its the end times?

From what I've picked up in reading, recessions and depressions tend to bring out the extremists, the lunatics, etc. There are some arguments I've seen made on the TV today that I have seen, almost verbatim, in writings about the Great Depression.

From my own experience (which is much more limited), we had a few back around the dot-com crash and millennium freak-out, but they seem to be getting more traction now.

 

[Virote_Considon]

On Hungry, I find it somewhat amusing that the most "free" country in the Warsaw Pact (even after the '56 fiasco) is moving in such an authoritarian direction. Though I don't believe it will go down that route too much further.

what has little fascist from 1940, ready to conquer the world to do with the socialist insurgent who just ended up in gestapo custody, with the jew worrying about what the future will bring him, with the woman from 1945, desperately starting to rebuild a completely demolished urban center while on the verge of starving, with the broken man returning from russian war capitivity?

what do all these people have to do with me, having been born in the 80s, enjoying a relative wealth that is now starting to decline a little bit?

why would anyone postulate that something like a "1940s to 2008 person" actually exists, when there are so many persons living so fundamentally different lives within even a very limited geographic area such as austria?

He was being a "The World Is America", I think.

But maybe we could let the Greeks invade it this time, while the rest of us watch the show

But if they reprise by taking over Greece, then that gives them more impetus to move in on Constantinople... The Russian Empire will live again

I think this entire post is hyperbole and overly pessimistic. The EU and USA economies are still the two largest in the world. It will take a century of recession to even see them surpassed, let alone completely fail. I am not of the opinion that China's economy will grow like it has forever. But, even if it does, the EU and USA economies will still be top three.

Out of curious interest, who had the top global economies during the Great Depression? Surely the US didn't lose their position even in that spot of bother?

 

[Winner]

But if they reprise by taking over Greece, then that gives them more impetus to move in on Constantinople... The Russian Empire will live again

So? Russia fighting Turkey after annexing Greece would quadruple the fun.

 

[G-Max]

I must tip my hat to you for your absolutely blemishless record of never having once uttered a single word or thought here that was anything other than exactly and perfectly wrong. You leave me baffled as to how you manage it so well. Odds would seem to suggest you would get something right once in a blue moon by mistake, but no. You run a tight ship.

Cutlass is wrong about a great many things, but this isn't one of them (except the claim that we've turned to conservatism)

 

[Cutlass]

Cutlass is wrong about a great many things, but this isn't one of them (except the claim that we've turned to conservatism)

How are we not? Carter was the right wing of the Democratic party in the 70s, he would be the far left of the party now. Reagan was the far right of the Republicans then, he would be a Democrat now.