Brazil is unraveling

[luiz]

much unlike:

Absolutely nothing questionable in any of that, nope

Not at all. It was entirely based in facts. This is the greatest contraction in GDP the country ever experienced. It has nothing to do with the IMF, to whom we do not owe a single penny.

You think using 10000 Real (well, Cruzeiro/Cruzado/whatever in the 80s/90s) notes isn't a big crisis?

Brazil has been a net exporter of oil since 2011, and is the 12th biggest producer in the world

It was a huge crisis, caused by populist demagogues. But in terms of sheer economic destruction (GDP contraction), 2015-16 is the worst economic crisis Brazil ever experienced. When all is said and done, at the beginning of 2017, we will have gone back well over a decade in terms of per capita income, and the industry is retracting to levels unseen since the 1950's.

It's a crisis of astonishing dimension. The PT has broken Brazil - a tremendously resource-rich country with a young population. Quite an accomplishment.

Bravo for supporting Dilma! Bravo!

I love to see the friendship flowing when it comes to politics, especially in Brazil, where all the bad in the world is solely PT's fault. It's almost as if Brazil, a fair "new" country which hardly forgotten our military government, is a model for the world in terms of democracy.

Thanks for the ozone layer, Dilma!

In English, please. Or Portuguese. Or French, or Spanish... but make it intelligible.

 

[W|M]

Considering the fact that I'm relying on luiz's word for this, I actually highly doubt this thing about this being the highest GDP contraction in Brazilian history, the fact that Brazil is a net creditor doesn't mean it doesn't have debt, Brazilian GDP per capita in 2003 was 3,039.67 USD while in 2013 (so three years into Dilma's term) it was 11,208.08 USD, and ''quebrou'' in this context means ''bankrupted''.

In English, please. Or Portuguese. Or French, or Spanish... but make it ineligible.

Nice irony here

 

[Defacto]

In English, please. Or Portuguese. Or French, or Spanish... but make it ineligible.

I can't, someone stole my english lessons. I bet was Dilma.

a young population

That worships Bolsonaro...

 

[W|M]

The population doesn't worship Bolsonaro, the Bolsonaro supporters are just loud on social media

 

[luiz]

Considering the fact that I'm relying on luiz's word for this, I actually highly doubt this thing about this being the highest GDP contraction in Brazilian history, the fact that Brazil is a net creditor doesn't mean it doesn't have debt, Brazilian GDP per capita in 2003 was 3,039.67 USD while in 2013 (so three years into Dilma's term) it was 11,208.08 USD, and ''quebrou'' in this context means ''bankrupted''.

The fact you're relying on "my word" just goes to show you're completely oblivious to what has been exhaustively reported on Brazilian media, and suggests you only read far-left rags.

3 seconds Google search:
http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercado...trar-maior-recessao-historia-brasil-como-isso

Or

http://www.financista.com.br/noticias/economia-vive-festival-de-piores-numeros-da-historia

Basically says it is the worst recession since 1901, when we started measuring this kind of stuff in Brazil. Note that in 1930-31, the Great Depression, Brazilian GDP sunk a total of 5.5%. Now it is expected to sink around 8%, or worse. So Dilma - who you supported so enthusiastically - outdid the Great Depression! Bravo!

As for the GDP per capita, again, nice try. The growth was mostly due to currency appreciation. Now it's collapsing. Look at the real rate of GDP per capita growth - it was like -5% in 2015, something almost unheard of in Brazil.

Brazil does have a lot of debt, just not with the IMF. To say that our problems are caused by the IMF, which has exactly zero input in our present economic policy, is simply wrong.

Nice irony here

I don't mind typos, I really have no idea what he meant.

 

[luiz]

BTW why is it so hard for leftists to admit they are wrong? It's like with the whole Venezuela debacle. He was beloved here 10 years ago and even much later, now good luck finding someone who owns up to that.

West India Man, you did support Dilma enthusiastically, while I said she would be a disaster. Well, I'd say producing a bigger recession than the Great Depression qualifies as "disaster". Why can't you admit I was right and you were wrong?

Just last page you said Brazil is in a depression because commodity prices, particularly oil, have fallen a lot. I pointed out that other countries far more dependent on commodities are experiencing economic growth, and that cheap oil prices are actually good to the Brazilian economy, since we are a net importer. So you were completely and demonstrably wrong, and yet you don't admit it and march into page 2 making new and equally wrong claims.

Admit you're wrong.

 

[W|M]

ah, so the GDP per capita goes up because of external factors, but goes down because of PT? Something doesn't quite fit. Oh look here, the ''worst depression in history'' is going to see future positive growth according to World Bank, IMF, UN and OECD, and the OECD long-term forecast indicates that the GDP will only shrink after 2060. Even in 2015, a bad year for the Brazilian economy, the GDP shrunk by, at most, 3%, not 5.5%.

 

[luiz]

ah, so the GDP per capita goes up because of external factors, but goes down because of PT? Something doesn't quite fit. Oh look here, the ''worst depression in history'' is going to see future positive growth according to World Bank, IMF, UN and OECD, and the OECD long-term forecast indicates that the GDP will only shrink after 2060. Even in 2015, a bad year for the Brazilian economy, the GDP shrunk by, at most, 3%, not 5.5%.

Learn to read.

In 2015 it shrunk by 3.8%, as I have repeatedly stated. When we couple that with the expected contraction of at the very least another 3.8% in 2016, we reach a total recession of around 8% of GDP - and it could still be much worse! I don't know why you mentioned 5.5%. That's how much Brazil contracted in 1930-31, during the Great Depression - you know, the one your candidate Dilma surpassed.

http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2016/03/pib-do-brasil-cai-38-em-2015.html

This is not a "bad year" for Brazil, it's the worst recession ever recorded.

Of course the GDP will go back to growth eventually, are you really that unread in economic matters to think that makes any point whatsoever? And are you really looking at old forecasts to claim there is no recession right now?? I'm honestly disappointed, and I didn't think I could be disappointed with you. Current forecasts point to a depression of over 8% of GDP in 2015-16 (the worst in recorded history for Brazil) and modest growth from 2017 onwards.

Still waiting patiently for you to admit you were wrong about:

-Endorsing Dilma;
-Saying the recession is caused by commodity prices;
-Saying low oil prices contributed to the recession.

And I'll add to the list for getting the GDP growth figures completely wrong.

 

[W|M]

So looking at Globo's sources (which, by the way, aren't to be trusted, considering the fact that they once made a graph that erroneously made it look like Dilma's government had increased some bad statistic (I forgot which) even though the real numbers pointed to different figures), the GDP apparantly shrank by 3.8%, which is the worst recession since...1990, not the Great Depression. I don't know where you get a forecast of -8% total growth from because it isn't mentioned anywhere in the article

EDIT: Here it is:

EDIT2: Here's another one that shows unemployment figures:

 

[Antilogic]

much unlike:

Absolutely nothing questionable in any of that, nope

Par for the course as far as luiz posts go.

 

[El_Machinae]

Didn't Brazil have politicians literally steal billions of dollars in oil money? Left or Right, that's going to cause some damage.

 

[luiz]

So looking at Globo's sources (which, by the way, aren't to be trusted, considering the fact that they once made a graph that erroneously made it look like Dilma's government had increased some bad statistic (I forgot which) even though the real numbers pointed to different figures), the GDP apparantly shrank by 3.8%, which is the worst recession since...1990, not the Great Depression. I don't know where you get a forecast of -8% total growth from because it isn't mentioned anywhere in the article

8% is the combined retraction of 2015 and 2016 (based on current forecasts), as I have stated about 10 times in this thread. Again, learn to read.

Here's a source, from Brazil's largest and most prestigious business publication (and I can find 10 more sources in under one minute, as this is everyday in the news, and only someone as clueless as you can ignore it).

http://www.valor.com.br/brasil/4458356/mercado-piora-projecao-do-pib-mas-reduz-de-inflacao-em-2016

This is from 4 days ago: the market consensus, as measured by the Central Bank, forecasts a further contraction of 3.45% of GDP in 2016. When you couple that with the 3.8% from 2015 (which is a number from IBGE, not Globo, which you would know if you knew anything about Brazil), you get a total contraction of over 7.1% in 2015-16, the worst recession in Brazilian recorded history (it was "only" 5.5% in the Great Depression, which the PT is making look like a prosperous time). And it only tends to get worse, with the Top 5 forecasters heard by the Central Bank already predicting over 8% of contraction.

Another point: so Globo (Latin America's biggest news conglomerate) is not to be trusted, but then you go on to post stuff from Tijolaço and Jornal GGN, two propaganda blogs.

Not that it matters.

Waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the GDP contraction as well. Add to your vast list things you need to admit.

Why is it so hard?

 

[gay_Aleks]

Didn't Brazil have politicians literally steal billions of dollars in oil money? Left or Right, that's going to cause some damage.

It's refreshing to see both the right and the left unite in their greedy desires for even more money, no?

 

[luiz]

Par for the course as far as luiz posts go.

I didn't make a single wrong claim in this thread, and the poster you answered to made a patently ridiculous and demonstrably wrong one.

But par for the course as far as Antilogic posts go: personal attack with zero substance, because you lack the brainpower to engage me. At least you recognize it and don't even attempt anymore.

Didn't Brazil have politicians literally steal billions of dollars in oil money? Left or Right, that's going to cause some damage.

Yep, politicians from the PT stole billions of dollars of oil money, in what was certainly the biggest corruption scandal in Brazilian history, and possibly in human history (though who knows what goes on in China).

But the saddest part is that the damage caused by their corruption actually pales in comparison to the damage caused by their incompetence and irresponsibility (they destroyed public finances to win reelection in 2014. Right after winning, they announced the country was broke, which explains why a President who was just re-elected became the most unpopular in history in just one month and started facing impeachment procedures pretty much from the get-go).

 

[Defacto]

It's refreshing to see both the right and the left unite in their greedy desires for even more money, no?

When it comes to brazilian government there is no right or left. Here, power does not corrupt a person. The rot comes from the cradle.

 

[W|M]

Also Dilma's government is implementing neoliberal policies so it's a moot point anyway

 

[Bootstoots]

No, it was all due to mismanagement and corruption*. Argentina was also mismanaged and corrupt, but because the crisis started earlier there they didn't have much of a base to fall from. That's why the GDP contraction was bigger in Brazil.

*naturally with the end of the commodity super-cycle Brazil, like all big commodity exporters, would experience a slow down in growth even with good economic policies. But whereas other countries such as Chile or Peru, who are even more dependent on commodities than we are, are growing slower but still growing, Brazil completely collapsed and entered its worse recession since we started measuring recessions.

When I get time I'll go take a look at whatever I can find myself, but my first impression is that you're mostly correct and that these were the biggest factors in why Brazil is doing so much worse than its neighbors. I suspect there were other factors, because there always are, but taken to an extreme (Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Greece [debtors and creditors both], etc.) bad policy definitely can cause major downturns. I do know enough at present to know that the IMF/foreign oppression/etc arguments are completely wrong.

Of course people always have trouble admitting they're wrong, especially if it has to do with their political ideology and would require losing face with someone they've sparred with repeatedly. So don't expect too much there.

 

[luiz]

Yep, you've nailed it.

There's definitely the external factor which is the end of the commodity super-cycle. So for sure a slowdown in growth was to be expected. But not a recession, and certainly not an economic collapse that is making what we experienced during the Great Depression look mild. After all, commodities have simply gone back to their 2005 level, and are still much above the historical average. So properly managed commodity-exporters are still experiencing robust growth (although smaller than when China was growing by double digits). But Brazil collapsed.

Brazil has been mismanaged since about 2006, but the commodity boom masked it for some years, and by 2005 we were in such a good financial shape that it took a while to expose the bones. The mismanagement got much worse after 2012, and in 2014 (to win Dilma's re-election), it reached Venezuelan levels of insanity, with the government breaking numerous laws in its mad power grab that completely ruined the already fragile public finances and pushed the country into the abyss. The reason of the ongoing impeachment process in Congress is actually this: the government broke laws that regulated how much indebted it could go without Congressional approval, by cooking the books.

The impeachment process going on in the Supreme Electoral Court is the one related to the corruption charges (Ie, Dilma's election campaigns in both 2010 and 2014 were paid in large part by money stolen from the state-owned oil company).

 

[Antilogic]

I didn't make a single wrong claim in this thread, and the poster you answered to made a patently ridiculous and demonstrably wrong one.

But par for the course as far as Antilogic posts go: personal attack with zero substance, because you lack the brainpower to engage me. At least you recognize it and don't even attempt anymore.

I'm disappointed you haven't bragged about much more educated you are than everyone else yet. Just lacking brainpower? Come now, you can do so much better.

 

[Lexicus]

I do know enough at present to know that the IMF/foreign oppression/etc arguments are completely wrong.

I don't know anything about this issue at all but I would hesitate to make a pronouncement like that. An economy strangled by debt can be crippled for a long time after the inevitable write-off.
If, for example, a country was forced into contractionary policies by an excessive amount of foreign debt decades ago, with much of the country's wealth being sucked up by creditors (like in Greece) the wasted real potential would reverberate down the generations and continue to mess stuff up far into the future.
Greece's development will be stunted by the troika's financial terrorism for years to come.

I'm not saying that this applies in this situation because as I said I'm woefully ignorant of Brazilian history generally and certainly Brazilian economic history. But it's a good way to bet. Most places outside Northwest Europe and the gringo-inhabited parts of North America have been subject to this by the major imperial powers at one time or another.