Brazil is unraveling

[luiz]

13 years of rule by the Workers' Party (PT) have led to an unprecedented state of moral and economic degradation. The "progressives" in charge of Brazil, the dears of the international left Lula and Dilma, have through their incompetence, arrogance and corruption made the country plunge in its worse recession on record (yes, bigger than the Great Depression and the 80's collapse) and broken record after record when it comes to corruption scandals.

Well, apparently the day of reckoning has come. The Federal Police has taken the once-deified and now-loathed Lula into custody, as part of the Petrobras corruption scandal. Lula is suspected of having taken tens of millions of dollars from construction companies to whom he awarded public contracts.

News of Lula's detention and the boost to the impeachment process after new information directly implicating Dilma surfaced yesterday have made the stock market have it's best day in over 20 years.

There is a non-trivial risk of social confrontation. Even though over almost 90% of the population opposes the Workers' Party, and a large majority wants to impeach Dilma and put Lula in jail, there is still a sizable number of parasites who are completely dependent on the PT to survive. They control the unions and many so-called "social movements", and have considerable fire power and illimited access to the state's resources.

Mass protests demanding the impeachment are scheduled for 13 of March, and the pro-PT thugs are promising to attack with all means available. There could be blood.

I have no idea what will happen, but one thing is certain: the PT is dead. Dilma has no moral, political or intellectual conditions to finish her mandate, and should resign. If she doesn't, things can get real ugly.

FT piece: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/011fcbb2-e1fc-11e5-96b7-9f778349aba2.html#axzz41l5HzoLS

Bloomberg piece: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rgeted-in-police-raid-into-corruption-scandal

 

[W|M]

Yeah no this is pretty much entirely wrong

 

[luiz]

Let me remind everyone that you supported electing Dilma in 2010, which means you're completely clueless and should refrain from giving your opinion on, well, anything.

Anyone who supported Dilma in 2010 or 2014 should never be allowed to vote again, basically

And BTW compliments for you and your kind for creating the worst crisis in over 100 years. Beating the Great Depression is quite an achievement. Millions of unemployed people thank you and your ignorance for ruining the country.

 

[W|M]

That was 2010, today is 2016

Remember the tape-throwing incident that you kept complaining about?

 

[luiz]

That was 2010, today is 2016

Remember the tape-throwing incident that you kept complaining about?

Yes, I was right in 2010 and you were wrong. Your candidate of 2010 won and created the worst crisis in Brazilian history. I am right again now and you are wrong. See the pattern?

The tape-throwing incident, that is, militants paid by the PT to physically assault political adversaries (they had already attacked Covas in SP, many years before) was extremely serious, just like paid militants promising to attack the anti-PT protesters 13 of March is extremely serious as well.

tl/dr West India Man is always wrong. The candidate he supported created an unprecedented recession and is now rejected by 90% of the population.

 

[W|M]

Dilma was never ''my candidate'', and although there's a recession right now, it's nowhere near the worst crisis in Brazilian history.

The tape-throwing thing continues to be a joke, and the only thing the PT pays to attack innocent people is the Military Police

 

[Lohrenswald]

Maybe problems in Brazil aren't caused by people you hate, Luiz

 

[Bootstoots]

So why did Brazil's economy do so much worse than any other Latin American country besides Venezuela last year? It seems even Argentina had a positive growth rate, despite my impression that their economy was even more poorly managed and their export situation similar. Yet Brazil contracted 3.8%. Are there reasons besides corruption and mismanagement by the PT?

 

[luiz]

Dilma was never ''my candidate'', and although there's a recession right now, it's nowhere near the worst crisis in Brazilian history.

The tape-throwing thing continues to be a joke, and the only thing the PT pays to attack innocent people is the Military Police

You enthusiastically supported Dilma in 2010. You even switched your avatar to a campaign picture of her. Yes, I have a crazy good memory, and will dig your posts if need be.

The current recession is the worst on record. The GDP fell by 3.8% in 2015 and will contract by about 4% this year. This never happened before - not in the 30's nor the 80's.

Your candidate, the one you enthusiastically supported, ruined the country.

As for the PM, I hope they go after PT supporters if they try to attack the anti-PT protesters on the 13th.

 

[W|M]

You enthusiastically supported Dilma in 2010. You even switched your avatar to a campaign picture of her. Yes, I have a crazy good memory, and will dig your posts if need be.

The current recession is the worst on record. The GDP fell by 3.8% in 2015 and will contract by about 4% this year. This never happened before - not in the 30's nor the 80's.

Your candidate, the one you enthusiastically supported, ruined the country.

As for the PM, I hope they go after PT supporters if they try to attack the anti-PT protesters on the 13th.

I don't remember switching my avatar to a campaign picture of her, so if you want you can dig that up. I haven't memorized GDP statistics, but what's going on now will only start being the worst crisis in Brazilian history when we see inflation hitting the triple and quadruple digits.

So why did Brazil's economy do so much worse than any other Latin American country besides Venezuela last year? It seems even Argentina had a positive growth rate, despite my impression that their economy was even more poorly managed and their export situation similar. Yet Brazil contracted 3.8%. Are there reasons besides corruption and mismanagement by the PT?

Largely from deep-rooted issues, but especially because of the fact that the Brazilian economy is highly reliant on commodity exports, many of which (most notably oil) now have low prices, the currency turned out to be massively overvalued until late 2014/early 2015, and investor confidence is presumably low because of demonization campaigns against the Brazilian government by the media (as opposed to the Argentinian government, which the media loves).

Corruption and mismanagement has been the norm in Brazil ever since the Portuguese started colonizing, it's just becoming more well-known now

 

[luiz]

Maybe problems in Brazil aren't caused by people you hate, Luiz

Like what, God decided to create the biggest recession in over 100 years to punish us for all the sins we commit during Carnaval?

Nope, I'll stick to blaming a government that ruined public finances and treated the state as its private cash cow.

So why did Brazil's economy do so much worse than any other Latin American country besides Venezuela last year? It seems even Argentina had a positive growth rate, despite my impression that their economy was even more poorly managed and their export situation similar. Yet Brazil contracted 3.8%. Are there reasons besides corruption and mismanagement by the PT?

No, it was all due to mismanagement and corruption*. Argentina was also mismanaged and corrupt, but because the crisis started earlier there they didn't have much of a base to fall from. That's why the GDP contraction was bigger in Brazil.

*naturally with the end of the commodity super-cycle Brazil, like all big commodity exporters, would experience a slow down in growth even with good economic policies. But whereas other countries such as Chile or Peru, who are even more dependent on commodities than we are, are growing slower but still growing, Brazil completely collapsed and entered its worse recession since we started measuring recessions.

 

[W|M]

Nope, I'll stick to blaming a government that ruined public finances and treated the state as its private cash cow.

And you think previous governments didn't do exactly the same?

 

[Lohrenswald]

Like what, God decided to create the biggest recession in over 100 years to punish us for all the sins we commit during Carnaval?

Nope, I'll stick to blaming a government that ruined public finances and treated the state as its private cash cow.

Or Brazil being an underdeveloped exporting country exploited by the Western countries and IMF

 

[luiz]

I don't remember switching my avatar to a campaign picture of her, so if you want you can dig that up. I haven't memorized GDP statistics, but what's going on now will only start being the worst crisis in Brazilian history when we see inflation hitting the triple and quadruple digits.

You did switch your avatar (is it possible to search old avatars?)
You also made a lot of enthusiastic posts about her - those I can easily dig up.

This is the worst economic crisis in Brazilian history from a GDP perspective, which is how economic crisis are typically measured. Like the Great Depression was worst crisis in modern US history, even though it was not the worst inflationary event by a long shot.

So the fact that inflation now is not at the all-time highest does not change at all the fact that never before in Brazilian history has the GDP contracted so much over 2 years.

So bravo for supporting Dilma in 2010. You contributed to millions of jobs being destroyed and for the industry of country dying.

Largely from deep-rooted issues, but especially because of the fact that the Brazilian economy is highly reliant on commodity exports, many of which (most notably oil) now have low prices, the currency turned out to be massively overvalued until late 2014/early 2015, and investor confidence is presumably low because of demonization campaigns against the Brazilian government by the media (as opposed to the Argentinian government, which the media loves).

Corruption and mismanagement has been the norm in Brazil ever since the Portuguese started colonizing, it's just becoming more well-known now

Nice try. Other countries who are far more dependent on commodities than Brazil, such as Chile and Peru, are still growing, albeit at a slower pace. The collapse in Brazil is totally and 100% due to mismanagement and corruption, which was never higher.

And BTW Brazil is a net importer of oil, so lower oil prices are actually good for us. You know very little about Brazil or economics.

You sound like a paid militant.

 

[luiz]

And you think previous governments didn't do exactly the same?

Yes, I think this government was vastly worse than previous governments, as pointed out by the fact that they caused the worst economic crisis on record.

Or Brazil being an underdeveloped exporting country exploited by the Western countries and IMF

Now that's a load of nonsense. A lot of "underdeveloped exporting countries" are doing just fine and on course to reach or surpass European living standards. Brazil's problems are of our own doing - or rather, not of mine, but of people like West India Man.

Edit: and BTW Brazil is a net creditor of the IMF, not debtor. So if the IMF exploits poor little countries, we're part of the exploiters, not exploitees.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Now that's a load of nonsense.

much unlike:

13 years of rule by the Workers' Party (PT) have led to an unprecedented state of moral and economic degradation. The "progressives" in charge of Brazil, the dears of the international left Lula and Dilma, have through their incompetence, arrogance and corruption made the country plunge in its worse recession on record (yes, bigger than the Great Depression and the 80's collapse) and broken record after record when it comes to corruption scandals.

There is a non-trivial risk of social confrontation. Even though over almost 90% of the population opposes the Workers' Party, and a large majority wants to impeach Dilma and put Lula in jail, there is still a sizable number of parasites who are completely dependent on the PT to survive. They control the unions and many so-called "social movements", and have considerable fire power and illimited access to the state's resources.

I have no idea what will happen, but one thing is certain: the PT is dead. Dilma has no moral, political or intellectual conditions to finish her mandate, and should resign. If she doesn't, things can get real ugly.

Let me remind everyone that you supported electing Dilma in 2010, which means you're completely clueless and should refrain from giving your opinion on, well, anything.

Anyone who supported Dilma in 2010 or 2014 should never be allowed to vote again, basically

Yes, I was right in 2010 and you were wrong. Your candidate of 2010 won and created the worst crisis in Brazilian history. I am right again now and you are wrong. See the pattern?

tl/dr West India Man is always wrong. The candidate he supported created an unprecedented recession and is now rejected by 90% of the population.

Nope, I'll stick to blaming a government that ruined public finances and treated the state as its private cash cow.

This is the worst economic crisis in Brazilian history from a GDP perspective, which is how economic crisis are typically measured. Like the Great Depression was worst crisis in modern US history, even though it was not the worst inflationary event by a long shot.

So the fact that inflation now is not at the all-time highest does not change at all the fact that never before in Brazilian history has the GDP contracted so much over 2 years.

So bravo for supporting Dilma in 2010. You contributed to millions of jobs being destroyed and for the industry of country dying.

Nice try. Other countries who are far more dependent on commodities than Brazil, such as Chile and Peru, are still growing, albeit at a slower pace. The collapse in Brazil is totally and 100% due to mismanagement and corruption, which was never higher.

And BTW Brazil is a net importer of oil, so lower oil prices are actually good for us. You know very little about Brazil or economics.

You sound like a paid militant.

Absolutely nothing questionable in any of that, nope

 

[EnglishEdward]

The GDP fell by 3.8% in 2015 and will contract by about 4% this year. This never happened before - not in the 30's nor the 80's.

I fear that was my fault for, IIRC, congratulating Brazil on overtaking the UK.

And the almighty's wicked sense of humour.

 

[gay_Aleks]

So why did Brazil's economy do so much worse than any other Latin American country besides Venezuela last year? It seems even Argentina had a positive growth rate, despite my impression that their economy was even more poorly managed and their export situation similar. Yet Brazil contracted 3.8%. Are there reasons besides corruption and mismanagement by the PT?

It's because they elected a Bulgarian. One of the few constants that economists over the time that have discovered is the odd, but true fact that there always is an enormous sum of money missing once a Bulgarian is involved within a leadership position. The amount of money usually corresponds to the leadership position.

 

[W|M]

And BTW Brazil is a net importer of oil, so lower oil prices are actually good for us...Yes, I think this government was vastly worse than previous governments, as pointed out by the fact that they caused the worst economic crisis on record.

You think using 10000 Real (well, Cruzeiro/Cruzado/whatever in the 80s/90s) notes isn't a big crisis?

Brazil has been a net exporter of oil since 2011, and is the 12th biggest producer in the world

 

[Defacto]

I love to see the friendship flowing when it comes to politics, especially in Brazil, where all the bad in the world is solely PT's fault. It's almost as if Brazil, a "new" country which hardly forgot the military government is a model for the world in terms of democracy.

Thanks for the ozone layer, Dilma!