"We seem to be on a peninsula, and not a very big one at that. There's a couple of resources around which might help for one or two cities, but I'm going to have to expand into the mainland quickly."
after meeting a neighbor on turn 8, i'd say so! everybody has different styles of course, but i prefer to have at least a bit of space of my own, not red borders on my doorstep right away. at least it's not "sprawl across the earth early and often" cathy...
"Just so everyone knows, it's Warlord difficulty - yes, nowhere near as fun as a higher setting, but I'm not skilled enough to play above Noble, and I usually play on Warlord. Warlord, Standard map with 7 Civs, Normal game speed."
there are different levels for a reason of course! well, i hereby forbid you to apologize for whatever level you find fun and right for you. of course you're also never allowed to take anything i say as absolute "you must do or not do xyz" so that kind of means nothing, but anyway
i play different sorts of games on various levels and change around all the time, i'm an oddball. one thing i like about warlord level is that they don't expand really fast. the increase in speed of them grabbing land is biggest between warlord and noble, and between immortal and deity, IMO, it's huge. but if it's the level you're used to, then it won't be as much an "advantage" for you as it is for me in comparison to your last few games or whatever. anyway...
i think the settler pop may be a godsend especially with a nearby neighbor, hopefully letting us get another city/some resources without having to fight him for them yet. or if we want to fight him early, our free city helps us prepare to do it. my style is pretty much always to settle towards them and backfill later. doubly so here, stuck on the south pole as you are. health galore but not a single happy resource is there?
"I'll keep my second settler in reserve until I can find a good second spot to place a city." that's exactly how i think when i get 'em. it's super, but it's not something i need to use right away. wait til we find a good spot and can afford it. seems to me you have good instincts

yes, this will be fun to watch

. but caution, i ramble, didja notice?