Can America reverse its decline?

[The Imp]

Call me a pessimist, but looking at the American public debt, along with the growth of the Chinese economy among various other things makes me think that America, as an economic power, has seen better days. How many years will it be until the world decides to begin abandoning the dollar for the Euro en masse, or perhaps a global reserve currency that does not exist yet or maybe the IMF's Special Drawing Rights. How long until the public debt cripples the US?

Is it a realistic possibility that America can reverse this problem, or will the political unpopularity of doing what needs to be done prevent a reversal?

Discuss.

 

[Snorrius]

It is not really bad thing. USA as world empire is quite useless and harmful, so if it will be disbanded, it will serve humanity to the best.

 

[amadeus]

It is not really bad thing. USA as world empire is quite useless and harmful, so if it will be disbanded, it will serve humanity to the best.

And then Soviet Union will rise and crush the imperio-capito-fascist bourgeois and then the world will be freed from the tyranny of economic prosperity and political liberalism.

 

[Integral]

Call me a pessimist, but looking at the American public debt, along with the growth of the Chinese economy among various other things makes me think that America, as an economic power, has seen better days.

Sure.

How many years will it be until the world decides to begin abandoning the dollar for the Euro en masse, or perhaps a global reserve currency that does not exist yet or maybe the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.

A good bit of time. A few decades, probably. Gut feeling.

How long until the public debt cripples the US?

Around the time people stop buying Treasury bonds.

 

[Colonel]

It is not really bad thing. USA as world empire is quite useless and harmful, so if it will be disbanded, it will serve humanity to the best.

Thats quite laughable. If the US were to de-stabilize there would be a massive power vacuum created which would eventually lead to a massive world war. On top of which the entire economy of the world would collapse with the US considering China's economy is dependent on the US, as is most of the worlds' in some respect.

 

[PiMan]

It is most likely possible to prevent absolute decline in the medium to long term, although difficult. But I doubt it is possible to prevent a relative decline to the rising strength of China and, presuming further unification efforts, Europe.

 

[The Imp]

It is not really bad thing. USA as world empire is quite useless and harmful, so if it will be disbanded, it will serve humanity to the best.

Quite the contrary, really. Get rid of the US, and the world will rip itself apart. It is the engine of the world economy, China would collapse into civil war without that engine, and the world would be plunged into a depression.

 

[Theige]

The United States is not declining.

 

[Snorrius]

Thats quite laughable. If the US were to de-stabilize there would be a massive power vacuum created which would eventually lead to a massive world war. On top of which the entire economy of the world would collapse with the US considering China's economy is dependent on the US, as is most of the worlds' in some respect.

Unlike some other empires like British Empire or Soviet Union which were heavily investing into colonies' industry and infrastructure (especially SU), USA is just resource-sucker. Of course, a lot of commotion will accompany US losing its status, but feeding 300 millions of freeloaders who want to maintain first-class living by producing derivatives and fiat currency is not an option in the long run.

Quite the contrary, really. Get rid of the US, and the world will rip itself apart. It is the engine of the world economy, China would collapse into civil war without that engine, and the world would be plunged into a depression.

World already is plunged into the depression, and US currently can not do a thing about it except printing money. We should write US off as soon as possible, and it is now just dead weight on the developing of the human civilization.

 

[civ_king]

The US is like Rome, it will devour an gods thrown at it, and if it doesn't have enough workers it will simply import them

 

[Theige]

Unlike some other empires like British Empire or Soviet Union which were heavily investing into colonies' industry and infrastructure (especially SU), USA is just resource-sucker. Of course, a lot of commotion will accompany US losing its status, but feeding 300 millions of freeloaders who want to maintain first-class living by producing derivatives and fiat currency is not an option in the long run.

300 million Americans make their living in the "derivates" and "fiat currency" industries?

Source?

 

[Aleenik]

Unlike some other empires like British Empire or Soviet Union which were heavily investing into colonies' industry and infrastructure (especially SU), USA is just resource-sucker. Of course, a lot of commotion will accompany US losing its status, but feeding 300 millions of freeloaders who want to maintain first-class living by producing derivatives and fiat currency is not an option in the long run.


World already is plunged into the depression, and US currently can not do a thing about it except printing money. We should write US off as soon as possible, and it is now just dead weight on the developing of the human civilization.

Says the person in Putin land.

 

[Snorrius]

300 million Americans make their living in the "derivates" and "fiat currency" industries?

Source?

First class living. Here is a chart with US trade deficit. US could live within its own means but currently it just finance trade deficit with useless paper/electronic bits. US has unbelieveable budget deficit which it finance using Treasury scheme. 80% percent of people in US is in service sector, and a large share in finance sector. As soon as dollar will became just local USA currency, it will be clear how real US is.

Says the person in Putin land.

Unlike certain countries "Putin land" lives within own means and have acceptable trade balance.

 

[Colonel]

Unlike some other empires like British Empire or Soviet Union which were heavily investing into colonies' industry and infrastructure (especially SU), USA is just resource-sucker. Of course, a lot of commotion will accompany US losing its status, but feeding 300 millions of freeloaders who want to maintain first-class living by producing derivatives and fiat currency is not an option in the long run.


World already is plunged into the depression, and US currently can not do a thing about it except printing money. We should write US off as soon as possible, and it is now just dead weight on the developing of the human civilization.

First off, did you just imply that Eastern Europe was a colony to the Soviet Union. Secondly did you further imply the the Soviet Union did anything good for Eastern Europe. Also did I miss something, wheres this depression you speak off. I see a decent recession which we are already beginning the recovery from. Last, should you remove these "resource-suckers" as you would call the US, you effectively destroy China's economy which is almost entirely dependent on American consumers. With China and the US economy gone nobody else stands a chance to survive.

 

[amadeus]

ITT: comically unrealistic apocalyptic predictions for the U.S.

 

[Snorrius]

First off, did you just imply that Eastern Europe was a colony to the Soviet Union.

Will "client states" do better?

Secondly did you further imply the the Soviet Union did anything good for Eastern Europe.

Quite a lot. I do not know how your mass media brainwash you (I do not watch TV either Russian, or Western because it zombifies mind) but in economic sense SU was much better then US. SU did not sucked brains from other countries, it kept its trade balance close to zero, and a lot of countries enjoyed much better life style within SU sphere of influence. For example, Yugoslavia. Now it is just a bunch of trashed countries.

Also did I miss something, wheres this depression you speak off. I see a decent recession which we are already beginning the recovery from.

You do not see it. You were told.

Last, should you remove these "resource-suckers" as you would call the US, you effectively destroy China's economy which is almost entirely dependent on American consumers. With China and the US economy gone nobody else stands a chance to survive.

I "should not" remove these resource suckers. Actually, it is just what is happening now. Like or not, but US will have to live on its own like in old good days.

 

[PiMan]

Unlike some other empires like British Empire or Soviet Union which were heavily investing into colonies' industry and infrastructure (especially SU), USA is just resource-sucker. Of course, a lot of commotion will accompany US losing its status, but feeding 300 millions of freeloaders who want to maintain first-class living by producing derivatives and fiat currency is not an option in the long run.

While the government itself isn't investing in other countries on the same scale as those empires; businesses are. American companies employ many people around the world, in both developed and undeveloped nations. And while resources go into the US, money and resources also go out. The US is the world's third largest exporter (fourth if including the EU)
And I seem to recall a map from one of the old map topics showing the US as a net exporter of food.

World already is plunged into the depression, and US currently can not do a thing about it except printing money. We should write US off as soon as possible, and it is now just dead weight on the developing of the human civilization.

You haven't marked anything off your list all year, and yet you refuse to consider the idea that you could be wrong. The stock markets are approaching precrash levels, unemployment in the US is showing signs of peaking soon and several countries are already most definitely recovering (see: Australia).

 

[amadeus]

but in economic sense SU was much better then US.

Here's the larger countries of Europe (and the U.S. and major industrialized allies) in 1985, listed from richest per capita to poorest, with their respective alignments. It should be fairly obvious to pick out which are which.

United States
Canada
Switzerland
Denmark
Norway
West Germany
Sweden
France
Australia
Japan
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Finland
United Kingdom
Italy
Spain
Greece
Ireland
Czechoslovakia
Portugal
East Germany
Soviet Union
Hungary
Yugoslavia
Bulgaria
Poland
Romania
Albania

 

[Tee Kay]

What decline?

 

[Snorrius]

And I seem to recall a map from one of the old map topics showing the US as a net exporter of food.

It is true. The only concerns about food are

1) Will they be able to maintain it after fuel imports decline (as they will not be able to maintain trade deficits after dollar ceases to be world currency)

2) During the Great Depression there was no lack of food, and still there were a lot of hungry people.

You haven't marked anything off your list all year, and yet you refuse to consider the idea that you could be wrong. The stock markets are approaching precrash levels, unemployment in the US is showing signs of peaking soon and several countries are already most definitely recovering (see: Australia).

It is not that I "refuse to consider the idea that I could be wrong". It is just that hard data does not support it (yet at least). Short-term debt to refinance is growing, unemployment is rising (yes, it fell a little this month but we do not know is this a trend), countries are trying to lessen dollar role in trade etc. US budget deficit beats its highs and so on. Unless there are hard data, I do not see any reasons to consider I am wrong.