Elections in 2017

[JohannaK]

In Catalonia polls are pretty tight. A split down the middle in proindependence vote could lead to the anticatalan party to come ahead. On top of that, it is uncertain that a proindependence coalition would retain a majority, though a unionist one is even more unlikely. It will come down to the new left, whose coalition politics indicate they would not be able to form a majority government.

 

[onejayhawk]

In the way of continuing into 2018, five countries with significant and potentially close elections. USA midterms as a group is one. Mexico, Italy, Brazil and Turkey are the others.
http://time.com/5065955/2018-elections-watch-for/?xid=homepage

J

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Serious question - do elections in Turkey really matter?

 

[Broken_Erika]

Serious question - do elections in Turkey really matter?

Every man and woman in turkey has the democratic right to vote for the AKP and Erdogan or be arrested on sedition and/or terrorism charges for being a Gulenist.

 

[onejayhawk]

Surprisingly much. Turkey is divided between Europe and Asia, between Christianity and Islam, between Russian military influence and NATO influence, between western style democracy and religious rule. In addition to mattering locally, the elections are a weather vein on many trends.

J

 

[Hrothbern]

Serious question - do elections in Turkey really matter?

Turkey is a relatively big country with a young population.
The recent stance of Erdogan towards domestic and international issues etc is imo kind of sub-optimal for the interests of the Turkish people.

But as far as I experienced many Turkish people in western Turkey, Istanbul, Bursa, Izmir, they have a great entrepreneurial spirit, are optimistic, eager to learn, fast in adapting....
They will most certainly grow in importance over time.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

That would not be incompatible with ine party totalitarian rule though. China is a great example of this.

 

[Hrothbern]

That would not be incompatible with ine party totalitarian rule though. China is a great example of this.

True !

I think the spine of Turkish society in cultural terms is

• a long standing history (many, many centuries) of a sophisticated burocracy enabling a strongly centralised government
• that optimistic entrepreneurial spirit, enabling a fine gritted system of oligarchy (networking is everything in todays Turkey). The (small) businessman is the Turkish "working class hero"
• The democracy is a convenient layer/facade as so many other nations have, a modernising Ataturk thing as well.

All in all that allows for totalitarian rule as long as the support is there from that network, that fabric, of the cascade of businessman from oligarchical powerfull to the small entrepreneur.
I think this makes a certain populistic/charismatic quality of any leadership mandatory.
It looks more like Russia than China, except for that business spirit, which is more China.

 

[metalhead]

Surprisingly much. Turkey is divided between Europe and Asia, between Christianity and Islam, between Russian military influence and NATO influence, between western style democracy and religious rule. In addition to mattering locally, the elections are a weather vein on many trends.

This reads like something that was cribbed from a child's encyclopedia.

 

[JollyRoger]

Well, the GOP is borrowing policy from a 12 year (Grover Norquist's age when he claimed to have come up with his policies he makes candidates pledge an oath to).

 

[Arwon]

Less than 1% of Turkey is Christian

 

[onejayhawk]

Less than 1% of Turkey is Christian

The number I have seen is over 2%, but it is still a small minority. However, a century ago, Christians were over 25% of the population and much cultural influence remains. Also, there are extensive ties to Europe, which is Christian. They are in NATO, a candidate for the EU and over 10% of the population resides in Europe.

J

 

[JohannaK]

You say that as if Europe was a magical word that means Western Civilization.

 

[Arwon]

Also, there are extensive ties to Europe, which is Christian.

Hmmm.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

The number I have seen is over 2%, but it is still a small minority. However, a century ago, Christians were over 25% of the population and much cultural influence remains. Also, there are extensive ties to Europe, which is Christian. They are in NATO, a candidate for the EU and over 10% of the population resides in Europe.

J

I'm not sure if legally they are still a candidate for the EU but for practical purposes that initiative is dead.

10% of the population lives in Europe...yeah what's that got to do with anything?

 

[Berzerker]

it truly is sad how we seem to bounce back and forth between the two parties as they take turns making a mess of things

 

[Katie88]

10% of the population lives in Europe...yeah what's that got to do with anything?

It's a way for them to exert influence. For example, a Turkish party (DENK), considered by some to be a front for Erdoğan's party, won seats in the Dutch parliament in the last elections.

 

[Katie88]

Brazil has a presidential election next year. For the uninitiated, former president Lula is the favourite. However, he was recently sentenced to 9 1/2 years is gaol for corruption and is thus barred from participating. He is appealing the conviction.

If he is allowed to run, it's hard to see anyone stopping him. However, if not, then it's wide open. The second most popular candidate is Jair Bolsonaro, a socially conservative right-wing populist who has praised the military dictatorship and promised to tackle corruption. His support is deep but not wide. There are other candidates, but none command a lot of support; more are likely to enter, especially if Lula is prevented from running. A lot will depend on how big media organization, or rather those they represent, decide to act. They despise Lula and the Workers Party, but will also find Bolsonaro very hard to stomach. I expect they will look to back someone to try to stop both of them, but it's far from clear who that might be.

 

[Arwon]

3 Australian states vote next year, two by mid-year.

South Australia in March will be the most interesting - a populist centrist party formed around a popular independent figure Nick Xenophon is currently polling a third of the vote, ahead of both Labor and the Libs - this is essentially unprecedented in Australian political history. If they actually get organised and run everywhere, it could cause the election to be completely unpredictable ahead of time due to preference voting.

Tasmania will have their election by May (depending when the premier calls it) and polls say they should turf their Liberal government for a Labor minority govt with Greens support. Their multi-member electorates make their elections a bit more stable

Victoria isn't til November and is currently looking extremely close.

 

[Cheetah]

It's a way for them to exert influence. For example, a Turkish party (DENK), considered by some to be a front for Erdoğan's party, won seats in the Dutch parliament in the last elections.

Those 10% are people living in Istanbul, which is partly in Europe. Nationals of other countries, but with Turkish roots, usually aren't counted.

Not that Turkish nationalists in European countries is something we're all happy about...

I'm not sure if legally they are still a candidate for the EU but for practical purposes that initiative is dead.

Legality and legality...

Turkey is a candidate, because they chose to apply. But to fully qualify for membership, they need to adhere to the Copenhagen Criteria:

• stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
• a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
• the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

More specifically, the Copenhagen Criteria rules are divided into 35 different policy fields (often just called chapters). There can also be specific country-based rules which are discussed during negotiations. IIRC, Turkey started work on aligning itself with just two of the chapters, and has yet to fulfill a single one!

In practice, Turkey is and was never a candidate for membership. Not because it wasn't allowed, but because Turkey does not want to abide by the rules for membership.

Whenever they change their mind, and change their country to fulfill all the criteria, they'll be much more likely to be accepted. It is generally acknowledged that the EU expanded a bit to fast in Eastern Europe however, so there might very well be much stricter guidelines before finally accepting Turkey -- or any other state -- as a new member.