Eurasian Union

[Snorrius]

Why would Kazakhstan join in Union with Russia? The Russians have been pilfering money from central Asia for Mother Russia for centuries now! And now that Kazakhstan has a strong Kazakh majority, there is no way in hell it would sit there and wait for Russia to redirect cash from Kazakh lands. Plus, I was under the impression that the Central Asia states see Russia as an economic friend and a political threat.

Errr... You are approaching this from a brainwashed point of view but I will try to make it clear. The problem of Kazakhstan is that it for centuries was between two strong states - Russia and China, so it have to lean to one or another. And historical experience shows that becoming part of China is a path to fast and cruel assimilation.

Another thing is that "pilfering money" is quite a mistake. Unlike, say, modern US which just keeps sucking real resources from the world in exchange to freshly printed dollars and generally avoid to develop countries they control, Russian Empire or Soviet Union actually make a lot direct investments into development of its "internal colonies" and allies.

If we are talking about modern customs union - than it is obvious. It is impossible for Kazakhstan and Belarus to keep their economy afloat without economic integration with Russia. Making common economic space will also help to reap mutual benefits. From the military point of view it is the same - nor Kazakhstan, nor Belarus have not real power to protect themselves. At the other side, unprotected Kazakhstan and Belarus is the threat to Russia, so cooperation is necessary.

 

[Lone Wolf]

The Russians have been pilfering money from central Asia for Mother Russia for centuries now!

The other way around. The Russians have been pilfering money from Mother Russia to central Asia for centuries mow.

 

[Squonk]

Yeah, great and wise investments these were...

 

[RedRalph]

Why would Kazakhstan join in Union with Russia? The Russians have been pilfering money from central Asia for Mother Russia for centuries now! And now that Kazakhstan has a strong Kazakh majority, there is no way in hell it would sit there and wait for Russia to redirect cash from Kazakh lands. Plus, I was under the impression that the Central Asia states see Russia as an economic friend and a political threat.

Kazakhstan has experessed interes tin joining the Union state, and it knows full well that joining the CSTO and customs union has political implications too. So they obviously aren't that adverse to it. and Russia built a huge amount of infrastructure there, along with raising educations rates, industrialisation, healthcare etc etc. They may not love Russia, but they don't hate it form what I can see.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Yeah, great and wise investments these were...

Great, sure. Wise, not sure .

 

[Verbose]

It would require a Russia very different from what the Soviet Union was, and I would think one rather different from how present day Russia operates.

But sure, why not. Russia needs to get its economy diversified and some proper affluence, enough to make itself really attractive to these future partners. Then it's still a matter of creating an organisation that sufficiently ensures the smaller members from direct Russia domination, i.e. one where Russia cannot bend the rules for itself simply due to its sheer size.

I think this is might be the problem with NAFTA, where Brazilians et al. seem to complain how everything could be just fine, if the US would at least stick to free trade consistently, and not just when it suits it.

Other than that, a Eurasian union is a great idea for the countries involved. But it simply can't be done without Russia, and it won't get done without Russia changing in some significant parts.

If Russia can do the equivalent of what the US did in western Europe post 1945, and what the EU has been doing until now at least — find willing partners in prospective new allies/members that want to align with it, will co-produce an order like this with it, and can produce relative legitimacy for such an order locally (meaning it will be generally popularly embraced, no revolts or violent resistance to it for starters), then it should work.

So far I would say Russia doesn't have the economic chops, the diversified economy for starters, and is being way too heavy handed in the way it handles the leg up on everyone it has through it's energy based economy, for any of it too look promising.

But if Medvedev is not just talk, he does sound pretty decent for perhaps starting to bring something about, ahead of Putin at least.

 

[REDY]

Kazakhstan has experessed interes tin joining the Union state, and it knows full well that joining the CSTO and customs union has political implications too. So they obviously aren't that adverse to it. and Russia built a huge amount of infrastructure there, along with raising educations rates, industrialisation, healthcare etc etc. They may not love Russia, but they don't hate it form what I can see.

They also expressed interest in WHO.
I pretty lack knowledge about Central Asian situation, but from what I know it seems more that "leaders" of these -stans are happy with dancing between powers to maximalize personal profits. Only if would be some real desire to revolution in their countries they would probably look for some who would maintain their status.

 

[RedRalph]

They also expressed interest in WHO.
I pretty lack knowledge about Central Asian situation, but from what I know it seems more that "leaders" of these -stans are happy with dancing between powers to maximalize personal profits. Only if would be some real desire to revolution they would probably look for some who would maintain their status.

Oh they do indeed try and play big powers off against eachother, especially in the SCO. But at a certain point, Russia and China will either divide them up or else the countries will have to choose. They are small, weak states sandwiched between a superpower and a great power.

 

[aronnax]

How would a union between Kazakhstan and Russia be fair anyway?
And what kind of union is this?

 

[RedRalph]

How would a union between Kazakhstan and Russia be fair anyway?
And what kind of union is this?

They will have a customs union soon, and they already have a military alliance.

 

[Snorrius]

How would a union between Kazakhstan and Russia be fair anyway?

Define what "fair" is.

And what kind of union is this?

If we talk about economy, currently it is customs union, steps to common economic space are being taken.

 

[Agarwaen]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Russia_and_Belarus#Contemplated_expansion

This article in wikipedia talks about some ideas of expansion of the union state of Belarus and Russia.

Abkhasia and South Ossetia already have observer status and have expressed interest in joining the union, Belarus would have to recognize their independence first I assume.
Kazakhstan is joining a separated customs union with Russia and Belarus, if further integration takes place, they can join the Union.
Both Kyrgyzstan and Moldova have talked about joining the Union and the Trisnistrians want to join Russia one way or another.

Map:

In yellow Russia and Belarus, in Green potential members and in pink other members of CIS.

 

[TheLastOne36]

I wonder how the Polish minority in Belarus would react to being part of Russia again.

 

[RedRalph]

I wonder how China would react to it? Esp if Kazakhstan joined

 

[REDY]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Russia_and_Belarus#Contemplated_expansion

Maybe its just me, but proposed flag....

 

[TheLastOne36]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Russia_and_Belarus#Contemplated_expansion

This article in wikipedia talks about some ideas of expansion of the union state of Belarus and Russia.

Abkhasia and South Ossetia already have observer status and have expressed interest in joining the union, Belarus would have to recognize their independence first I assume.
Kazakhstan is joining a separated customs union with Russia and Belarus, if further integration takes place, they can join the Union.
Both Kyrgyzstan and Moldova have talked about joining the Union and the Trisnistrians want to join Russia one way or another.

Map:

In yellow Russia and Belarus, in Green potential members and in pink other members of CIS.

I hate the idea of Transnistria.

There are 180,000 Romanians, 170,000 Ukrainians and only 140,000 Russians in Transnistria.

 

[Snorrius]

I hate the idea of Transnistria.

There are 180,000 Romanians, 170,000 Ukrainians and only 140,000 Russians in Transnistria.

Ukrainians and Russians are the same, especially outside of Ukraine.

 

[aronnax]

They will have a customs union soon, and they already have a military alliance.

Oh is that it? Oh well that is just good business.

Define what "fair" is.

That in the event of a political union, the Kazakhs will get their money's worth, that they are represented always and that they are an equal partner to Russia.

 

[RedRalph]

That in the event of a political union, the Kazakhs will get their money's worth, that they are represented always and that they are an equal partner to Russia.

The Kazakh people? No reason to think they wouldn't.

 

[aronnax]

Im just thinking about the last time the Russians were in control. They nearly out-populated the everyone. In 1959, there were more Russians in Kazakhstan than Kazakhs. Somehow, they manage to win back a clear majority.