Formula 1 2014
- Thread starter Formaldehyde
- Start date
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
What an apt primary sponsor.
So, Red Bull is having an outright nightmarish preseason, they're having a lot of trouble managing all of their energy recovery systems and keeping temperatures under control. I'll be writing down another series of pre-season predictions once the final Bahrain test is finished... but in general, Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren seem to be on top. Williams has been extremely reliable, as has Force India, and those two teams seem to be at the front of the midfield. Lotus is somewhere behind them, along with Sauber. Currently Lotus seems to be outpacing Red Bull, although deep pockets suggest that the Bulls will be able to recover pace and reliability over the course of the season, and perhaps drag themselves back to the front of the field. At the back, we've got Toro Rosso, Marussia and Caterham. Marussia seems to have the edge on Caterham, perhaps due to the woeful state of the Renault-powered teams thusfar.
2014 Season Preview.
Six days to Practice 1 in Australia! I'll be updating my predictions this week... I think I'll be shuffling the Renault teams slightly further down in the racing order.
Six days to Practice 1 in Australia! I'll be updating my predictions this week... I think I'll be shuffling the Renault teams slightly further down in the racing order.
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
That is a very informative article. And it sheds light on why the new noses are so weird.
Link to video.
Red Bull has also put together a handy little animation summarizing the 2014 rule changes.
Incidentally, it has also created an excellent .gif about Red Bull's apparent engine difficulties.
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
This is definitely going to take some getting used to watching. The cars sound like sewing machines, the rear view mirrors seem obnoxiously large, and the rear wings are hopelessly tiny.
Red Bull struggles through the early season with several car-crippling problems, but when they're not blocked by reliability issues, they reveal potentially race-winning pace. Vettel shows all the skill one would expect from a 4-time WDC and keeps Red Bull in the points, but he can do little more than that, at least in the early season. Ricciardo puts in a respectable showing, displaying great speed and outperforming Vettel on a few occasions, but overall struggling to match his teammate. Red Bull's pace will pick up significantly towards the end of the season, drawing them back up into the lead pack, but it will be too late to attempt to make a title defense.
Mercedes will be strong off the block, and Mercedes-powered teams all move up relative to their competitors. Hamilton achieves several dominant performances, but Rosberg takes a critical edge in consistency. The two will remain close throughout the season, but I think that Rosberg will come out with the advantage. Together, this pairing will secure the WCC.
Ferrari builds a car with potent qualifying pace, but struggles somewhat over race distances. The Scuderia will win several races, but fails to dominate their competition with their vehicle alone. It is their extremely strong and experienced driver lineup is what keeps them in the running with Red Bull and Mercedes. Alonso holds an edge over Räikkönen, by the early midseason and Ferrari proceeds to support him as their #1 driver in a bid to take the WDC.
Lotus has a disastrous downturn in form. Reliability and pace are poor, improving only slowly throughout the season. Grosjean manages to grab occasional points finishes, but he is clearly struggling to come close to the frontrunner cars. Pastor Maldonado's change of scenery serves him well, but not as well as he might have liked. The Venezuelan displays a few flashes of blistering pace, although he remains an unpolished driver who makes more mistakes and achieves poorer results than his teammate. Lotus finds itself languishing in the lower midfield.
McLaren rebounds significantly from 2013's downturn in form. Their pace puts them close to the front, but their car is by no means the best or most reliable. They'll likely pick up consistent points finishes behind the Mercedes, Williams and Ferrari drivers, while fending off offensives from their Mercedes-powered rivals Force India. Magnussen displays maturity and mental fortitude beyond his years, and starts the season strong. Button keeps things even at first, but Magnussen begins to pull away from him as the year progresses, likely scoring several of McLaren's best results of the season. With McLaren confident in Magnussen, Button will retire at the season's conclusion.
Force India continues their steady improvement, working to bridge the gap between the midfield and the frontrunners. Their Mercedes engines, lengthy development period for the 2014 car, and a talented young driver pairing in Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez all point to their strongest season yet. Hülkenberg collects multiple podiums and scores an impressive haul of points, while Pérez is consistently a few positions behind in the results. Nonetheless, Sergio is consistently in the points, and overall makes a good showing of himself.
Sauber produce a solid, respectable midfield car, which plants itself behind the McLarens and Force Indias, but ahead of the Toro Rossos, Lotuses, Marussias, Caterhams. Sutil is a workhorse, and manages to put out consistent, if unspectacular, results, while his teammate Gutiérrez is more streaky- on some days he is significantly ahead of Sutil, while on others he lags behind at the very back of the midfield.
Scuderia Toro Rosso will slide to the back of the midfield, wallowing with Lotus and even getting threatened by the two backmarker teams. Vergne will have Kvyat's number in the early races, but Kvyat will settle in quickly, and despite making a few rookie mistakes, will demonstrate a pace similar to Vergne's, scoring a few surprisingly high results by the season's end. Despite his promising pace, Vergne will likely be replaced by one of the other young talents in Red Bull's young driver program after the season's end, and fail to find a seat at another team.
Marussia will draw ever closer to the back of the midfield, and reliability issues throughout the field will see them score their first points early on in the season. Jules Bianchi will continue to mature as a driver, and will be the fastest of the backmarker drivers. Chilton's pace will improve incrementally, but he will remain comparatively slow and unspectacular in comparison to his teammate.
Caterham will start off the season with strong results, spearheaded by Kamui Kobayashi, but their vehicle's performance may be the worst on the grid. Reliability is their main means of scoring, gaining points through high attrition in front of them. Ericsson will struggle for pace early on, but it will come with time, though he will not seriously contest Kobayashi in a head to head contest. Though they manage to score their first points, they end up finishing the season behind Marussia once again, throwing doubt onto the possibility of Caterham's future in the sport.
Driver Standings (Change from Last Year)
1. Rosberg (+5)
2. Alonso (0)
3. Hamilton (+1)
4. Bottas (+13)
5. Räikkönen (0)
6. Massa (+2)
7. Magnussen (!)
8. Vettel (-7)
9. Hülkenberg (+1)
10. Button (-1)
11. Pérez (0)
12. Ricciardo (+2)
13. Sutil (0)
14. Gutiérrez (+2)
15. Grosjean (-8)
16. Maldonado (+2)
17. Vergne (-1)
18. Kvyat (!)
19. Bianchi (0)
20. Kobayashi (!)
21. Chilton (+2)
22. Ericsson (!)
Constructor Standings (Change from Last Year)
1. Mercedes (+1)
2. Ferrari (+1)
3. Williams (+6)
4. McLaren (+1)
5. Force India (+1)
6. Red Bull (-5)
7. Sauber (0)
8. Lotus (-4)
9. Toro Rosso (-1)
10. Marussia (0)
11. Caterham (0)
My feel-good story of the season, which I'd like to see but probably won't happen, is for Massa to win a WDC with Williams.
Finally, one last prediction- everyone else should put down a number for this too.
How many drivers will finish the Australian GP?
I anticipate that 12 drivers to be classified at the end of the race.
Mercedes will be strong off the block, and Mercedes-powered teams all move up relative to their competitors. Hamilton achieves several dominant performances, but Rosberg takes a critical edge in consistency. The two will remain close throughout the season, but I think that Rosberg will come out with the advantage. Together, this pairing will secure the WCC.
Ferrari builds a car with potent qualifying pace, but struggles somewhat over race distances. The Scuderia will win several races, but fails to dominate their competition with their vehicle alone. It is their extremely strong and experienced driver lineup is what keeps them in the running with Red Bull and Mercedes. Alonso holds an edge over Räikkönen, by the early midseason and Ferrari proceeds to support him as their #1 driver in a bid to take the WDC.
Lotus has a disastrous downturn in form. Reliability and pace are poor, improving only slowly throughout the season. Grosjean manages to grab occasional points finishes, but he is clearly struggling to come close to the frontrunner cars. Pastor Maldonado's change of scenery serves him well, but not as well as he might have liked. The Venezuelan displays a few flashes of blistering pace, although he remains an unpolished driver who makes more mistakes and achieves poorer results than his teammate. Lotus finds itself languishing in the lower midfield.
McLaren rebounds significantly from 2013's downturn in form. Their pace puts them close to the front, but their car is by no means the best or most reliable. They'll likely pick up consistent points finishes behind the Mercedes, Williams and Ferrari drivers, while fending off offensives from their Mercedes-powered rivals Force India. Magnussen displays maturity and mental fortitude beyond his years, and starts the season strong. Button keeps things even at first, but Magnussen begins to pull away from him as the year progresses, likely scoring several of McLaren's best results of the season. With McLaren confident in Magnussen, Button will retire at the season's conclusion.
Force India continues their steady improvement, working to bridge the gap between the midfield and the frontrunners. Their Mercedes engines, lengthy development period for the 2014 car, and a talented young driver pairing in Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez all point to their strongest season yet. Hülkenberg collects multiple podiums and scores an impressive haul of points, while Pérez is consistently a few positions behind in the results. Nonetheless, Sergio is consistently in the points, and overall makes a good showing of himself.
Sauber produce a solid, respectable midfield car, which plants itself behind the McLarens and Force Indias, but ahead of the Toro Rossos, Lotuses, Marussias, Caterhams. Sutil is a workhorse, and manages to put out consistent, if unspectacular, results, while his teammate Gutiérrez is more streaky- on some days he is significantly ahead of Sutil, while on others he lags behind at the very back of the midfield.
Scuderia Toro Rosso will slide to the back of the midfield, wallowing with Lotus and even getting threatened by the two backmarker teams. Vergne will have Kvyat's number in the early races, but Kvyat will settle in quickly, and despite making a few rookie mistakes, will demonstrate a pace similar to Vergne's, scoring a few surprisingly high results by the season's end. Despite his promising pace, Vergne will likely be replaced by one of the other young talents in Red Bull's young driver program after the season's end, and fail to find a seat at another team.
Marussia will draw ever closer to the back of the midfield, and reliability issues throughout the field will see them score their first points early on in the season. Jules Bianchi will continue to mature as a driver, and will be the fastest of the backmarker drivers. Chilton's pace will improve incrementally, but he will remain comparatively slow and unspectacular in comparison to his teammate.
Caterham will start off the season with strong results, spearheaded by Kamui Kobayashi, but their vehicle's performance may be the worst on the grid. Reliability is their main means of scoring, gaining points through high attrition in front of them. Ericsson will struggle for pace early on, but it will come with time, though he will not seriously contest Kobayashi in a head to head contest. Though they manage to score their first points, they end up finishing the season behind Marussia once again, throwing doubt onto the possibility of Caterham's future in the sport.
Driver Standings (Change from Last Year)
1. Rosberg (+5)
2. Alonso (0)
3. Hamilton (+1)
4. Bottas (+13)
5. Räikkönen (0)
6. Massa (+2)
7. Magnussen (!)
8. Vettel (-7)
9. Hülkenberg (+1)
10. Button (-1)
11. Pérez (0)
12. Ricciardo (+2)
13. Sutil (0)
14. Gutiérrez (+2)
15. Grosjean (-8)
16. Maldonado (+2)
17. Vergne (-1)
18. Kvyat (!)
19. Bianchi (0)
20. Kobayashi (!)
21. Chilton (+2)
22. Ericsson (!)
Constructor Standings (Change from Last Year)
1. Mercedes (+1)
2. Ferrari (+1)
3. Williams (+6)
4. McLaren (+1)
5. Force India (+1)
6. Red Bull (-5)
7. Sauber (0)
8. Lotus (-4)
9. Toro Rosso (-1)
10. Marussia (0)
11. Caterham (0)
My feel-good story of the season, which I'd like to see but probably won't happen, is for Massa to win a WDC with Williams.
Finally, one last prediction- everyone else should put down a number for this too.
How many drivers will finish the Australian GP?
I anticipate that 12 drivers to be classified at the end of the race.
JohannaK
Heroically Clueless
I haven't really been following the tests and thus I'm pretty unaware of which cars actually have reliability problems, I'll say 15.
FP1 and FP2 are finished.
Long story short, Red Bull are not as bad as I'd suspected. They have pace that definitely puts them in the top ten, if not the top five. Mercedes are 1-2, and despite a few little reliability issues seem to be the strongest team. Ferrari is looking decent, and Fernando is setting faster times than Kimi. McLaren is back up closer to the top. FI is looking stronger. Williams seem to be one of the top four teams, for the first time in several years. Sauber is looking reasonably strong. Toro Rosso's hard to judge- Vergne is driving in the midfield, Kvyat is chillin' with Chilton. Lotus are currently at a pace similar to Marussia, and the E22 looks all but undriveable. Grosjean was getting huge lockups, the car was wiggling all over the place, and Maldonado didn't even get out of the pits. Meanwhile, neither of Caterham's drivers even got out onto the track. Disastah.
Short story shorter: Red Bull's not dead yet, Williams has pace, Lotus is in serious trouble and Caterham has not put a tyre on the asphalt.
Long story short, Red Bull are not as bad as I'd suspected. They have pace that definitely puts them in the top ten, if not the top five. Mercedes are 1-2, and despite a few little reliability issues seem to be the strongest team. Ferrari is looking decent, and Fernando is setting faster times than Kimi. McLaren is back up closer to the top. FI is looking stronger. Williams seem to be one of the top four teams, for the first time in several years. Sauber is looking reasonably strong. Toro Rosso's hard to judge- Vergne is driving in the midfield, Kvyat is chillin' with Chilton. Lotus are currently at a pace similar to Marussia, and the E22 looks all but undriveable. Grosjean was getting huge lockups, the car was wiggling all over the place, and Maldonado didn't even get out of the pits. Meanwhile, neither of Caterham's drivers even got out onto the track. Disastah.
Short story shorter: Red Bull's not dead yet, Williams has pace, Lotus is in serious trouble and Caterham has not put a tyre on the asphalt.
Yeah that is true. It seems that they are really suffering from not being able to do much testing whilst I guess Red Bull have more resources so they've been able to work around the limited testing.
Before today I was expecting both Mercedes to be on the front of the grid so Ricciardo qualifying second was a bit of surprise particularly as Vettel struggled. Magnussen qualifying so far ahead of Button was the other big surprise although Button has a history of struggling in qualifying.
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