General Turn Discussion

[Zeviz]

In general, I don't like the "guilty until proven innocent" mindset exibited here. All this discussion about practical cheating methods should have happened in the accusers' forums. You are placing the burden of proof on SANCTA (give me evidence that it's impossible to cheat), instead of the accusers (first come up with a reasonable way cheating could have taken place, then we'll investigate).

It is impossible to win all 25 battles by play testing the save. I used to replay the turn a lot in my SP games, but I never won all the battles. It does not matter how many times you replay a turn, you will not win all battles. The only way you can win is by being Lucky...

This is the main problem with Sulla's argument.

Before making an accusation of cheating based on this method, you should try to see how the method works. Based on my experience with some non-RB SP games, it's impossible to win 7 out of 7 battles this way, no matter what you do.

There are two reasons the information that "the seed can be taken advantage of" isn't evidence that it's possible to cheat:

1. If you are due for a sequence of bad rolls, there is nothing you can do to consume all of them, short of losing a battle. (Or making a >95% attack elsewhere.)

2. This kind of cheating would lead to very strange attack orders. (First we do a suicide attack, then our top unit, then another suicide attack, etc.)

Since the burden of proof is supposed to be on the accusers, here is the challenge:

1. Some neutral party (Sullla, or other mods) creates several scenarios in worldbuild, and loads them as PitBoss saves, with preserve random seeds.

2. The teams that accuse Memphus of cheating find a way to win 90% of battles in those saves.

The above would be the only acceptable proof that cheating is possible. It still wouldn't prove that Memphus is a chater any more than saying that a person has weak alibi makes him a murderer, but without that, Mempus' alibi is iron-clad.

PS The problem with the team playing on after Memphus' removal is that by doing so we'd accept the ruling that he is a cheater. Is this something anybody here is willing to do with the only evidence being "well, there is a theoretical way to cheat"?

 

[Memphus]

Here is a little more food for thought:

1. The method which is now known, albeit it seemed no one here knew of it until Sulla brought it up, could have been known by the other teams (hence cheating accusation)

2. No other team has attacked Sancta, yet troops have been in position to do so before.
Under the same theory that accused me, one could concievably get this seed, try out your attack, but:

1. If you are due for a sequence of bad rolls, there is nothing you can do to consume all of them, short of losing a battle. (Or making a >95% attack elsewhere.)

And as such couldn't find a way to win, thus they just proceeded not to attack. No way to rise suspition that way right?

On the flip side, whenever Sancta has had the opportunity to attack we have, we haven't waited turns. Troops advance, we attack that turn.

Now I am not accusing any other team of cheating, just stating that once the spirit of the game is gone and no trust is left, this is what will continue on.

 

[dutchfire]

Rik Meleet's post meant that I was investigating the issue, sooooo. Before I was asking if anyone on SANCTA had been able to determine whether or not the random seed was preserved for combat results when downloading savegames from an online Pitboss server. Since no one had an answer for that, I went and checked it out myself. Here's what I found.

I'm sorry to report that it is in fact possible to swing the combat results in your favor by means of the process we've been discussing. If "Preserve Random Seed" is turned on, then one can test coinflip battles ahead of time to see if they will be victorious or not. It's less easy to swing multiple battles in one's favor, but you can indeed test out various "strings" of combat results, and keep testing various permutations of dice rolls until finding one that is most heavily in your favor. Furthermore, this appears to be fairly well known in the Multiplayer community, to the point that many MP Ironman games are done with Preserve Random Seed off, just to avoid this situation from occuring. I heard stories that some people were using two computers at once, running a MP game on one and sending saves over to the second computer, just for the purpose of testing out combat results. Hard to believe, I know, but that's what I was told.

Unfortunately, this more or less blows up the argument of "it's impossible to cheat in a Pitboss game", and we're left with nothing but Memphus' word again. While I don't want to call Memphus a liar and a cheat, it's also true that there's a lot of circumstantial evidence here that arouses some suspicion in the combat results. Furthermore, I have to point out that Memphus has been playing hard and fast with many of the Demogame elements, such as continuing to mislead the other teams with research swapping even after the issue was raised as somewhat of a cheese tactic. If asked as to whether or not I thought Memphus had been using savegame results to predetermine combat results, I would have to answer by saying I don't know. That's not an accusation, but it's not a confirmation of innocence either. This is not something so inconceivable that I couldn't see it happening. I just don't know.

My recommendation after considering the situation is once again that SANCTA appoint someone else to play their turns for a little while, and let Memphus take more of an observational/lurker role. Just until the end of the current SANCTA vs. Kaz/Cav war, since that's the major bone of contention. Since this team seems to have a dozen or so members, that shouldn't be too difficult to coordinate. This isn't a punishment or an accusation of guilt for Memphus. Rather, I think it's the best way to cool down a volatile situation with some hot tempers on both sides of the issue. Since innocence or guilt is literally impossible to determine, a compromise solution seems best to me.

:sigh: A pity such a bug/problem exists in civ4. I was aware of the fact that it worked in civ3 vanilla, but I also know from experience that it's not possible to manipulate the game in such a way that you win all battles, all you can do AFAIK is making sure you lose X battle while winning Y more important battle. (IE. I sacrifice a chariot somewhere in the middle of nowhere so I win a crucial attack on a city). This would result in a. a highly unlikely order of combat, b. still some losses.
Neither of those can be observed in our battle results, so IMO, there's only a possibility and not the slightest hint of evidence.

I agree with Rik Meleet and hope he'll be able to find evidence either way so this issue is resolved.

I don't think removing Memphus from the game without reasonable evidence is a good solution and I, for one, won't play for SANCTA in such a case, not only because of lack of time but also because that would kill all the fun in the game for me.

 

[Mojoqmeyvam]

I don't think removing Memphus from the game without reasonable evidence is a good solution and I, for one, won't play for SANCTA in such a case, not only because of lack of time but also because that would kill all the fun in the game for me.

Seconded on all counts.

 

[Whomp]

Game is back on. Here's what has been decided.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=343000

 

[Mojoqmeyvam]

So with the game back on, what is our current set of plans for the war?

IIRC, we've been trying to get Kaz to flip. But they have to regroup their team, as well.

 

[Memphus]

Well Kaz jusr Burnt Zero. The Good news? Our Culture is still on those tiles. If the borders of TKY expand then we get those tiles back.

Cav also Advanced and won 4 for 4. (doubling moving over the hill again) Seems like the RNG is with the attackers , mind you their worst odds were mid 70's.

Spoiler :

Oh and our plans? Live one turn at a time. Get Cavarly, and go kill kaz.

 

[Memphus]

Hey Guys ~

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=8669287&postcount=14

It just isn't fun for me anymore to log in and be accused of cheating.

As I said I'll pause it while we get a new turn player.

If it were up to me...my vote would be to gift every city to saturn and the turn over our capital to the AI.

 

[Mojoqmeyvam]

That sucks. I think you're making a fine call, Memphus. It's sad that it has to end this way.



No, I cannot, and do not want to be the turn-player. How much of a team do we even have left at this point?

EDIT: Honestly, turning the game over to Saturn doesn't sound like fun. I'd lean towards a blaze of glory, just going all-out military and making Cav and Kaz pay in blood. And more blood. I don't care who wins, but I want it to be a long, hard fight. SANCTA will go out with a bang, not a whimper. TO WAR!

 

[mostly-harmless]

I fully understand Memphus decision and would do the same in the situation.
In my opinion it is the best to just walk away from the game.
Next time we get a lucky streak it must have been Memphus secretly PMing the turn player and telling him how to cheat.

mh

 

[Whomp]

I'm sorry to hear that Memphus but I fully respect your decision and how the team decides to proceed. I just want to say I learned a lot from you all during this game and I'm sorry things developed the way they did.

 

[Ronnie1]

I want to add my name to the list above...fully respect your decision!

How do we proceed? DO WE PROCEED? I kinda like the gift it all to Saturn plan, except they lose the National Wonders, and TKY falls the the enemy very quickly without unlimited drafting.

 

[Ronnie1]

ROLL CALL....Who is still here, and wants to continue?

 

[Whomp]

I'm here but don't have the skill to play. I'm really disappointed this went down the way it did.

I think there's issues by giving cities to Saturn. It would leave them on an island by themselves with no one to trade with. This will spell disaster for them regardless of their size.

I think we'd give them a better chance of winning if we gave them cities they could use but beat the bloody pulp out of Kaz and Cav in a grinding war. It will be more fun to go down in flames and hopefully bring them down right with us.

 

[Memphus]

Then to turn kaz on cav we gift tky, and the other 2 cities there. Dt an everything east goes to Saturn.

Jade dew our capital can then finish my and chemisty and we can gift those 2 techs.

 

[remake20]

So we're done for the game? Pretty much.

 

[Ronnie1]

I am NOT MEMPHUS....(obviously)

But I would be willing to play some turns. Over the holidays, for the next 5 days or so, very difficult to get done. I would also need a serious brush up on what we are doing where.

I am also good with doing NOTHING, and letting the game DIE! It might be the best way to let them "have their way"!!!

 

[Whomp]

A lot of time has been invested by us and the other teams. I don't really care much about most of the other teams but I do care what happens to Saturn. I think we should let them know what's happened and what they would prefer us to do. I'm sure none of the outcomes will be very positive. Unfortunately, I'm going through something similar in the C3C MTDG. Pretty sad.

 

[remake20]

I hate when people get accused of cheating, no matter whose team it is.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

my vote? retire.

Here's my problem: clearly, at least one person doesn't trust that the moderators know what they are doing. I'm guessing that more than one person exists, and that we will continue to deal with accusations throughout the game as it continues.

If we continue to play, how can we root for lucky rolls and go "argggh!" when the RNG is against us? If we win 2 low-odds battles, we'll get accused of cheating again.

I'll never play a game of Civ IV in a multi-team format again. Way too much effort, time, espirit de corps has gone into the game - and I think it's a shame.

I won't get in the way if SANCTA continues, but I won't participate (not that I've been all that active lately) Nothing against anyone here - I've enjoyed working with you all.

I just think walking away is the only option I have for defending Memphus.

I highly recommend that we do one of three things:

1) Retire
2) Log in and hit end turn as our only action each turn
3) Find a new turn player and play a real game.

and not anything where we try to throw the game to Saturn. In my mind, that's against the spirit of the game. Either blow it up, or keep going.

My vote is blow it up, but that's me.