Global warming strikes again...

[Berzerker]

not sure I buy into the more extreme weather argument, seems to me as the polar regions warm up faster than the equator the contrasts between air masses lessens

we get tornadoes because cold dry air from the arctic comes down off the Rockies onto the plains and clashes with warm moist air from the Gulf.

if that cold dry air was a bit warmer and wetter tornadoes might be more rare

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Yes, the cold came through there already, what temp is it outside now, any idea Valka? Plus, it should be evening there, getting colder. Got lots of quilts? I'm sure you are prepared for cold and pipes are insulated or they would be frozen by now...

According to the Weather Network, with wind chill it's -31C (only -19C if there was no wind).

I just took a short hop over to the Weather Network, and this is what it told me:

 

[CavLancer]

Minus 31C? -23.something F. Yeesh. Ever think of moving to Florida?

 

[AppleDumplingHead]

not sure I buy into the more extreme weather argument, seems to me as the polar regions warm up faster than the equator the contrasts between air masses lessens

we get tornadoes because cold dry air from the arctic comes down off the Rockies onto the plains and clashes with warm moist air from the Gulf.

if that cold dry air was a bit warmer and wetter tornadoes might be more rare

I think the way it's portrayed is that the more irregular the extremes, as they are becoming, there is more propensity for stronger fronts to collide, creating more frequent and more violent storms. With global warming there are still regions, because of the Earth's axis tilt and currents, disparities in high and low pressure, which will be cold, but the patterns get all messed up from what was reliable in previous centuries, say to write a farmer's almanac. So, the "cold" is still "cold" but the "hot" gets hotter and hotter and it creates wilder weather, or wilder to that which we are accustomed.

 

[Synobun]

I think the way it's portrayed is that the more irregular the extremes, as they are becoming, there is more propensity for stronger fronts to collide, creating more frequent and more violent storms. With global warming there are still regions, because of the Earth's axis tilt and currents, disparities in high and low pressure, which will be cold, but the patterns get all messed up from what was reliable in previous centuries, say to write a farmer's almanac. So, the "cold" is still "cold" but the "hot" gets hotter and hotter and it creates wilder weather, or wilder to that which we are accustomed.

Essentially this. Our weather predictions are what they are because we've had the opportunity to observe a steady climate system. With a system doing x colliding with a system doing y, we can expect z to happen. The specifics of this change as the systems change, as anything reasonably would. Many of our disasters come forth from system collisions and irregularities. It stands up to scrutiny that more extreme irregularities will create more extreme weather patterns, whether that be drought or a catastrophic storm in the Pacific.

That's not to say we're going to have a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, but it's at least worth taking into consideration that the more damage we do to our climate, the more risk we bring to our long term prospects as a result of the more dangerous storms and weather patterns. We won't be wiped out if we start getting a category 5 hurricane every single year on a high population trajectory, but it'll certainly snuff out a lot of life and cause an extreme amount of damage to infrastructure and habitats.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Minus 31C? -23.something F. Yeesh. Ever think of moving to Florida?

Let's see... high humidity, hurricanes, giant snakes, alligators, tropical disease-carrying insects, rude snowbirds from Quebec... why on earth would I want to move to a place like that?

It's just the wind that makes it so cold right now. If you dress sensibly, -20C with no wind really isn't that bad. Just wear layers, keep your extremities covered, wear a toque and scarf, and don't be outside too long at a stretch. That's just common sense from about -15C (no wind chill) on down. I will say, though, that once it hits -25C I'm very reluctant to go outside. Only an emergency or urgent appointment gets me out in -30C.

I have lots of warm blankets, a good supply of my grandmother's cozy afghans, and a couple of cats who like to sleep with me. A cat is the equivalent of a blanket all by herself.

This isn't going to be how it is for the next five months. There isn't even that much snow yet, and of course there will be warm spells and chinooks. We don't get as much of the chinook weather here as they do in Calgary, but we get some, which is a nice break.

Even so, I'm kicking myself that I didn't include any hot chocolate with my last grocery order. I'll have to make do with tomato soup for a hot drink, for now.

 

[CavLancer]

I'm acclimated. If it gets to 15C I'm freezing. May be why I believe in cooling. They have hot oatmeal drinks now, even here where the choices can be slim. Might be nice for cold evenings.

 

[Synobun]

I definitely don't miss the winters, Valka. Boy did I hate the -30C days with the 6ft snow drifts. Awful, awful, awful.

Although Vancouver isn't much better, I guess. We've had rain (and snow now!) for over 60 days straight.

 

[CavLancer]

Sixty days of rain? That's biblical or something.

 

[AppleDumplingHead]

That's not to say we're going to have a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, but it's at least worth taking into consideration that the more damage we do to our climate, the more risk we bring to our long term prospects as a result of the more dangerous storms and weather patterns.

Well, that's a little different than just high and low pressure. It's basically an event with a pocket of such extreme low pressure it begins to rapidly modify the temperature of the northern Atlantic Ocean, which causes a chain reaction. I'm not sure such a "hole" is even possible any time soon. It's like what would happen were the Earth to traverse errant plasma from an as-yet unwitnessed immense-scale ICME.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Sixty days of rain? That's biblical or something.

Apparently it's not that abnormal. It can be quite rainy there (60 days straight would drive me nuts, though). I'm fortunate in that the first time I visited Vancouver and the Island, there was no rain (it was horribly hot, though). The second time we visited the Island, we stayed with some relatives of my great-uncle. It rained quite a bit, and I was glad to have brought a box of books with me. I stayed in the Winnebago and spent the time reading some not-bad science fiction. Thankfully it did clear up by the time we left to go to China Beach and then down to the States.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

On the flip side, if all these cycles going cold don't actually put us into another Maunder minimum, then I'd guess that folks like me would have to admit we're wrong.

The evidence for human caused climate change

And when they are wrong

You are such an ass to draw such conclusions and make accusations without the 5 years having played out. Such an ass. I honestly thought more of you, but I see you have changed.

My mistake was it was too short a time span so yes at this time you are correct, but I'm not yet giving up as I'm no quitter. The trends are quite clear but haven't played out far enough so any idiot can see them so yes, so far there is plenty of room to deny the true trend, but I have another year past this el nino.

it's just because the trends haven't played out so any idiot can see the true trend. Only visionaries like Cavvie can see through the evidence.

One month to go.

Whether I become convinced or not is a decision I will make warpus.

Funny! You just wait ... in 5 years time ....

 

[PhroX]

Sixty days of rain? That's biblical or something.

Only sixty? That's a pretty nice summer in Wales...

 

[CavLancer]

Oregon coast too. Can never tell though, one year we had 90 days straight of rain. Ninety days... Go to bed its raining, get up to take a leak its raining, next morning you wake up its raining, and it goes on and on. Gets to one after a while. That was only one year however. Another it would rain only at night, again and again. The days were often partially cloudy. Could really get used to that.

 

[Hygro]

was that the mid 90s el niño?

 

[CavLancer]

Lets see, got there in...couple later, maybe 1990ish. Then we had one year...'88/89 winter when the temps got colder than they ever do on the Oregon coast which is warmed by the Japanese current. So pipes were not really protected all that much, and lots of folks houses froze up. Being from the East I knew to leave the water dripping and mine were okay. Never know on that coast. Saw hundred mph winds with no cyclonic motion. Everything not nailed down flew away, and some stuff that was.

 

[carlosMM]

ah, CavLancer,
you play the shifting goal-posts, the anectodal evidence, the too-little-time-too-much-effort and the reversal of burden of proof games admirably well.
However, any sane person can see through that gamble all too easily

 

[onejayhawk]

I get tired of the incessant calls to eliminate fossil fuels in the next ten years. Even more tiring are the annual, "It's cold so global warming is bunk." posts.

J

 

[Lexicus]

I get tired of the incessant calls to eliminate fossil fuels in the next ten years. Even more tiring are the annual, "It's cold so global warming is bunk." posts.

J

But why?

 

[onejayhawk]

But why?

They are both wrong, stupidly so, but the second is more trite, hence slightly more annoying.

J