Global warming to global drying?

[Che Guava]

...well, drying and wetting, depending on where you are living...

Humans 'affect global rainfall'

Researchers said changes to the climate had led to an increase in annual average rainfall in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

But while Canada, Russia and northern Europe had become wetter, India and parts of Africa had become drier, the team of scientists added.

The findings will be published in the scientific journal Nature on Thursday.

Climate models have, for a number of years, suggested that human activity has led to changes to the distribution of rain and snow across the globe.

However, the computer models have been unable to pinpoint the extent of our influence, partly because drying in some regions have cancelled out moistening in others.

Making the link

The scientists from Canada, Japan, the UK and US used the patterns of the changes in different latitude bands instead of the global average.

They compared monthly precipitation observations from 1925-1999 to those generated by complex computer models to see if they could identify if human activity was affecting rainfall patterns.

"We show that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands," the researchers wrote in the paper.

"These changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing."

The team estimated that human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, was likely to have led to a 62mm increase in the annual precipitation trend over the past century over land areas located 40-70 degrees north, which includes Canada, northern Europe and Russia.

They also suggested the increase of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere had contributed a 82mm increase in the southern tropics and subtropics (0-30 degrees south), and a 98mm decrease in precipitation in the northern tropics (0-30 degrees north).

They added that natural factors, such as volcanic eruptions, had contributed to shifts in the global rainfall patterns but to a much lesser extent.

One of the paper's co-authors, Nathan Gillett of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK, said the team's findings helped clear up any uncertainty.

"This study shows that there has been a significant human effect on global rainfall patterns, with human influence causing a decrease in rainfall in some regions, and an increase in rainfall in others."

However, Dr Gillett said it was not possible to make a direct link between the recent floods in the UK and human-induced climate change.

"While our study shows a human influence on rainfall at the global scale, the role of human influence in the UK flooding remains uncertain.

"Climate models generally predict that the UK will become wetter in winter and drier in summer," he explained.

"In the UK we have seen a trend towards more extreme rainfall in the winter but no clear trend in summer extreme rainfall."

link!

An interesting study, and a smart way to look at things: we aren't losing or gaining rainfall, just displacing it to different latitudes...

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

Wow, talk about unfair for the developing world.

 

[El_Machinae]

If India wasn't so burdened with population, wouldn't a bit of drying make it a nicer place? IIRC, it's hot and wet there.

China, too, might be able to use some drying. IIRC (again), their paddy fields aren't ammenable to industrialised farming techniques.

 

[Che Guava]

China, too, might be able to use some drying. IIRC (again), their paddy fields aren't ammenable to industrialised farming techniques.

True, but I'm not sure a dried up rice paddy would be much good for anything.

Besides, a good part of chinese agriculture is dedicated to drier grains, like wheat, millet and oats in the north and interior. I think those places would likely be the worst hit (given the dry climate there already) and could lead to some serious problems.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

If India wasn't so burdened with population, wouldn't a bit of drying make it a nicer place? IIRC, it's hot and wet there.

China, too, might be able to use some drying. IIRC (again), their paddy fields aren't ammenable to industrialised farming techniques.

India's problem is that it is extremely seasonal. A really heavy, wet monsoon is necessary to counterbalance the dry season.

Northern China is desertifying, and that is not sustainable for feeding 500 million northern Chinese.

 

[El_Machinae]

I really showed some stereotyping when I think of the Chinese as eating a lot of rice. I should really cut that out, and maybe learn more about their agriculture.

{moseys off}

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

I really showed some stereotyping when I think of the Chinese as eating a lot of rice. I should really cut that out, and maybe learn more about their agriculture.

{moseys off}

Well, you aren't completely wrong. Southern China grows LOTS of rice, while northern China grows LOTS of wheat.

 

[JohnRM]

Yes! Our war on poverty is going as planned. Let's kill those bastards!

 

[Narz]

Central California is pretty dry right now. I was surprised to see all the hills I remembered as green now ugly & yellow. I'm aware this is usually the dry season here but supposedly it's worse than usual this year.

 

[Perfection]

Take that mold spores!

 

[Tee Kay]

The greatest effect of global warming (I think) is the melting of glaciers which is the source of fresh water for most of the people around the world. Already places like Bolivia are losing glaciers fast and is facing a disaster. Glaciers in Tibet feeds the Huang He, Chang Jiang, Indus, Ganges, Mekong etc and if they're gone that means water for half the world's population are gone as well. Combined that with messed up weather pattern and you got a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

[Urederra]

So, Do you guys only use the term "climate change' when discussing about snowing in Buenos Aires?

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

So, Do you guys only use the term "climate change' when discussing about snowing in Buenos Aires?

Well, I almost always use the term climate change, simply because climate isn't only about temperature. But I know you have to troll the thread, because you insist on building up an entire forum worth of archived drivel to prove yourself a fool 10 years from now.

 

[Urederra]

So, When I open a thread about snowing in Buenos Aires and, without making any other statement somebody says it is better to call it Climate Change, it is OK, it is not trolling. But when you guys open a thread about Global warming or global drying and I mention Climate change, it is trolling.

I think somebody owes me an apology.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

So, When I open a thread about snowing in Buenos Aires and, without making any other statement somebody says it is better to call it Climate Change, it is OK, it is not trolling. But when you guys open a thread about Global warming or global drying and I mention Climate change, it is trolling.

I think somebody owes me an apology.

I don't owe you crap. I say climate change because precipitation is also important, as well as things such as seasonal extremes and the frequency of extreme weather events. On the whole the earth is still warming, so that is accurate; it just isn't the whole climate change picture.

Your problem is that you have been digging yourself into a hole for so long that to save face you just keep digging deeper: not the most intelligent strategy, but certainly a common one.

 

[JohnRM]

You're both arguing a useless point. The important thing is that the global climate is changing. We need to find out why it is changing and what the future holds for our planet. If that future is not going to be good for us, then we need to figure out a way to slow down this effect or adapt to it, if we can.

 

[Urederra]

I don't owe you crap. I say climate change because precipitation is also important, as well as things such as seasonal extremes and the frequency of extreme weather events. On the whole the earth is still warming, so that is accurate; it just isn't the whole climate change picture.

You said climate change AFTER I mentioned it. Nobody said climate change in this thread before me, and you think that is trolling. No, it is not, I just stated a fact, you guys only use the term 'climate change' when you face a problem with the data.

Your problem is that you have been digging yourself into a hole for so long that to save face you just keep digging deeper: not the most intelligent strategy, but certainly a common one.

Certainly more common than apologizing.

Let's wait 10 years and see who is right.

 

[Cannae]

@ Urederra ~ If you don't beleive in humans causing global warming then what do You suggest is? I have yet to see an argument written by the other camp of this issue

 

[The Yankee]

@ Urederra ~ If you don't beleive in humans causing global warming then what do You suggest is? I have yet to see an argument written by the other camp of this issue

That it is a natural cycle experienced by the Earth? We didn't end the Ice Age and we weren't responsible for all that lovely heat that was around ages and ages ago.

Whether the pace of such change is natural or not, I can't say. And there are good reasons to try to reduce harmful emissions without having to point to the climate.

'Tis a theory.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

You said climate change AFTER I mentioned it. Nobody said climate change in this thread before me, and you think that is trolling. No, it is not, I just stated a fact, you guys only use the term 'climate change' when you face a problem with the data.

Certainly more common than apologizing.

Let's wait 10 years and see who is right.

I personally didn't say global warming either, and I probably wouldn't have unless I was specifically referring to the net global temperature effect. The thread title said global warming NEXT to global drying in order to emphasize the fact that warming wasn't the only aspect to consider. Then, when you open the thread, it cleverly adds that it is getting wetter in some parts too. The whole thing was crafted in a way to show that there is more to climate change than temperature increases. So to the OP.

Then in another part of the thread, another poster says global warming as that is the aspect of climate change that is most related to the melting of the glaciers.

Then, suddenly, the troll crawls out from under his bridge to criticize the language used without even considering its context. So no, I won't apologize for your trolling of a perfectly good thread.