How would Russia react to EU economic blockade?

[Hehehe]

Funny how Russia is the most reviled country on CFC

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Soviet Union really . .. .. .. .ed up some of their neighbouring countries? I know, Russia =/= USSR, but Russians have started acting up again (Georgia etc). Personally I don't hate Russia but I'm a little bit worried. Besides, I don't really see how Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Columbia could ever threaten Europe. Oh wait I'm pathologically hate-filled European and/or sociopath.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I don't think Russia would budge easily. My guess is they would try just about every, even remotely viable alternative (pressuring Europe, alternative trading partners etc, but not war) before giving in.

 

[Camikaze]

The question is if the Russian psyché can take surrendering to Western powers. I feel they'd rather go to war and lose rather than to give up.

Well, yeah. I think Russia would go to war, but it would fail. And they would probably know that it had a large chance of failure, in advance.

Help... how?

Well, if Russia cannot get anything in and out through Europe, they would have to get it in and out through China. Which would dramatically increase their presence and influence in the region. China wouldn't like this increase in Russian influence, and would either help Russia or hurt Russia. And I think help is more likely, given the fact that Europe is more of a traditional enemy. Although, I suppose hurting Russia would also be quite plausible, for all of those lovely Siberian resources.

 

[Snorrius]

Russia hasn't exactly given us all too many reasons to love it either. Personally I haven't got a problem with the nation or the people, but the government.

The government is not perfect now but compare it to Yeltsin or Gorbachev! That was disastrous.

 

[RedRalph]

Russia is a hated country because it behaves like an obnoxious, two-bit thug still playing the zero-sum power politics games of eras past. Refusing to acknowledge or incapable of understanding that most of the world has grown up a bit. That concerns like human rights, civil liberties, and self-determination are not mere cards played by the West to advance their own interests, but that they are paramount interests unto themselves and should be treated as such.

Russia still insists on seeing any outside involvement in countries near her as a personal affront and intolerable threat to her security and interests. They treat domestic decisions of countries near her that don't go their way as sinister western subversion. Fact is, Russia is acting as if the Cold War is still ongoing and that mentality influences every aspect of her politics. Russia has not grown up. If they are reviled, that is the reason.

Some parts of that rant are true, yet most of it can be applied to China and the US, yet they get about a quarter as many negative threads as Russia does.

 

[Winner]

Well, yeah. I think Russia would go to war, but it would fail. And they would probably know that it had a large chance of failure, in advance.

So, what would be the military objective? Where would they attack and how?

Well, if Russia cannot get anything in and out through Europe, they would have to get it in and out through China.

It's really not that easy. Most of Russian products are produced in European parts of Russia and transported by railroads to the EU. Transporting everything through Siberia to Vladivostok/China would be logistically impossible, I believe.

Besides, Russian trade with the EU27 amounts to more than a half of their foreign trade. China is not very important compared to that.

Which would dramatically increase their presence and influence in the region. China wouldn't like this increase in Russian influence, and would either help Russia or hurt Russia. And I think help is more likely, given the fact that Europe is more of a traditional enemy.

Traditional enemy to whom? China? I don't think so. Chinese relations with the EU are pretty solid. There are lots of differences (Tibet, human rights), but the EU has no security interests in East Asia, so it leaves China free hand there - unlike the US or Russia, who do meddle.

Although, I suppose hurting Russia would also be quite plausible, for all of those lovely Siberian resources.

China could use the situation to make Russia dependent on it, just like Russia made some smaller post-Soviet states dependent.

 

[RedRalph]

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Soviet Union really . .. .. .. .ed up some of their neighbouring countries? I know, Russia =/= USSR, but Russians have started acting up again (Georgia etc). Personally I don't hate Russia but I'm a little bit worried. Besides, I don't really see how Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Columbia could ever threaten Europe. Oh wait I'm pathologically hate-filled European and/or sociopath.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I don't think Russia would budge easily. My guess is they would try just about every, even remotely viable alternative (pressuring Europe, alternative trading partners etc, but not war) before giving in.

Threaten Europe? And Russia is accused of being stuck in the cold war? Russia has neither the desire or the ability to go to war with Europe, this is all in your head. Jesus Christ. Russia didn't even start the war with Georgia... funny thing is, certain posters here would have been cheerleading Russia if Georgia had happened to be a Muslim country

 

[plarq]

Some parts of that rant are true, yet most of it can be applied to China and the US, yet they get about a quarter as many negative threads as Russia does.

Well I'd welcome more anti-China threads, I'm a darn traitor of the country.

Yes, I would even welcome Russian army.

 

[Winner]

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Soviet Union really . .. .. .. .ed up some of their neighbouring countries? I know, Russia =/= USSR, but Russians have started acting up again (Georgia etc). Personally I don't hate Russia but I'm a little bit worried. Besides, I don't really see how Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Columbia could ever threaten Europe. Oh wait I'm pathologically hate-filled European and/or sociopath.

Ralph is touchy about Russia, it's his favourite dictatorship Besides, he didn't quite grasped the fact that this is a purely speculative thread where we talk about an extremelly unrealistic hypothetical scenario which I just find to be an interesting topic for discussion.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I don't think Russia would budge easily. My guess is they would try just about every, even remotely viable alternative (pressuring Europe, alternative trading partners etc, but not war) before giving in.

OTOH, Russia would lose even the little it recovered since the end of the Cold War. It would not give up easily.

 

[plarq]

Russia would split into fascist revengeists and pro-Western traitors if Russia government cave to western demand. So no.

 

[REDY]

And then what? Russian economy would still collapse.

Hmm...yes they would go also to baltics.
I personaly think that trade thing is overstimated as for example dependence on oil. Russia survived before, Russia would survive after. War would be stupid...they have never did similiar idiocy, everything what they do in foreign policy is evil but rational. Government would moved their industry back towards weapons, ironworks and find new pipelines to survive some years, of course army officials and snarky people without money would be dangerous card in possible revolution but I dont share your thought about Russian thinking. Unlike many other nations they have never went to lost war and it would be realy last possibility for former KGB officers.

For me would be more interesting how would behave ordinary Europeans. I dont think that ordinary Russians would sorry for any opponent, but Europeans would IMHO make such protests that EU would have to withdraw or change regime to something worse than Russians have...

 

[Snorrius]

Well, actually in the hypothetical case of such blockade next moves (also hypothetical) are possible:

1) Baltic states are either occupied or lose all of their trade. In first case their will lose their pseudostatehood and EU will akwardly trying to maintain its dignity, in the second already crippled Baltic economy will go further down to the toilet.

2) The presence of Russia in Central Asia increases: key countries are got under stricter control.

3) USA tries to find other way to transport things to Afghanistan.

4) Venezuela and Equador suddenly become a nuclear powers (their scientists make unexpected breakthrough).

5) Iceland gives up on economy and became third country in the Union of Russia and Belarus.

and so on...

 

[Camikaze]

So, what would be the military objective? Where would they attack and how?

I suppose they'd go for the fringes first. See how much they can get without provoking too much more of a reaction. Caucasus, Eurasia, maybe Finland. Before consolidating and pressing on through Turkey and Scandinavia. That would be their ultimate plan, anyway.

It's really not that easy. Most of Russian products are produced in European parts of Russia and transported by railroads to the EU. Transporting everything through Siberia to Vladivostok/China would be logistically impossible, I believe.

Besides, Russian trade with the EU27 amounts to more than a half of their foreign trade. China is not very important compared to that.

As much as it wouldn't be that easy, it would be their only choice. Assuming the US and NATO would also be complicit in this, going through the Caucasus and Eurasia isn't going to work, so China would be their only avenue of trade. An the logistic impossibility is what would put so much pressure on China.

Traditional enemy to whom? China? I don't think so. Chinese relations with the EU are pretty solid. There are lots of differences (Tibet, human rights), but the EU has no security interests in East Asia, so it leaves China free hand there - unlike the US or Russia, who do meddle.

Yeah, I'm starting to think China might jump on the bandwagon and invade Siberia, but it just doesn't seem like them to join in with the West, in the West's aggression.

China could use the situation to make Russia dependent on it, just like Russia made some smaller post-Soviet states dependent.

Well, yeah, and this dependency could turn into an alliance. This would be beneficial to China, and so they would have quite a vested interest in the nation. So, the weakening of Russia in this situation would definitely not be in their best interests.

 

[Verbose]

The government is not perfect now but compare it to Yeltsin or Gorbachev! That was disastrous.

Not as far as confidence building outside Russia to the effect that the new democratic Russia was "nice" is concerned. Problem is, being "nice" also often boils down to being regarded as "weak" and "stupid". Question then being if Russians at all recognise benefits of not being feared by its neighbours?

Also, not that I think it likely you might concede it, but the critical appraisal of Soviet history during Yeltsin would have been helpful for Russia in the long run. The "patriotic" fare on offer these days can't possibly be very useful to Russia in the long run, even if it feels good for now.

 

[Winner]

Well, actually in the hypothetical case of such blockade next moves (also hypothetical) are possible:

1) Baltic states are either occupied or lose all of their trade. In first case their will lose their pseudostatehood and EU will akwardly trying to maintain its dignity, in the second already crippled Baltic economy will go further down to the toilet.

Why? Baltic countries have land connection with the rest of the EU, they'd not be isolated. Besides, Baltic sea would be controlled by the EU.

2) The presence of Russia in Central Asia increases: key countries are got under stricter control.

3) USA tries to find other way to transport things to Afghanistan.

Good point, but don't forget the US is neutral in this dispute. They'd probably force Pakistan to offer some bases.

4) Venezuela and Equador suddenly become a nuclear powers (their scientists make unexpected breakthrough).

Impossible. And even if you somehow managed to build a nuclear programme from scratch in less that 3 years (remember that Russian economy would be destroyed by then), why should it interest the EU?

5) Iceland gives up on economy and became third country in the Union of Russia and Belarus.

Again, impossible - why would Iceland join blockaded Russia and its collapsing economy?

 

[REDY]

What about preventive nuke strike to some place? (for example Bruxelles) Would be some nuke strike which would not probably start war?

 

[GoodGame]

Good point, but don't forget the US is neutral in this dispute. They'd probably force Pakistan to offer some bases.

The thing is, doesn't a EU blockade require force, and doesn't force risk conflict, and if it's the EU's military being risked, doesn't that inherently call up NATO, and the USA by association? Then once you have the US partisan against Russia, it suggests a worrisome possibility of escalation.

I think the path of least resistance would be for Russia to challenge the blockade directly to test the EU's resolve. And only then deflect towards asian interests if the EU was resolute.

 

[Winner]

I suppose they'd go for the fringes first. See how much they can get without provoking too much more of a reaction. Caucasus, Eurasia, maybe Finland. Before consolidating and pressing on through Turkey and Scandinavia. That would be their ultimate plan, anyway.

The problem with military solution in this case is that it wouldn't bring any results - Russia would still be blockaded, it's navy doesn't stand a chance against EU fleets combined.

So, even if the Russian somehow managed to get their ships out of Baltic/Black seas, they'd be destroyed in the Atlantic/Mediterranean.

Geographic isolation has always been a source of discomfort for Russia - they lack solid sea connections with major trade partners. This weakness has always motivated Russia to expand more and more to secure more connections with other powers.

As much as it wouldn't be that easy, it would be their only choice. Assuming the US and NATO would also be complicit in this, going through the Caucasus and Eurasia isn't going to work, so China would be their only avenue of trade. An the logistic impossibility is what would put so much pressure on China.

I don't quite follow your logic here.

Yeah, I'm starting to think China might jump on the bandwagon and invade Siberia, but it just doesn't seem like them to join in with the West, in the West's aggression.

But does China see the West as one entity? This is how the Russians see it, always assuming that the Americans are behind everything that happens. China, on the other hand, might see Europe as being quite different from the US. Besides, this would be a great opportunity for the Chinese to puppetize Russia or drive it off its "sphere of influence" in Central Asia (China has interest in this region too).

Well, yeah, and this dependency could turn into an alliance. This would be beneficial to China, and so they would have quite a vested interest in the nation. So, the weakening of Russia in this situation would definitely not be in their best interests.

I still don't see how could China help preventing Russia's economic collapse (and I mean REAL collapse) if the EU didn't lift its embargo.

 

[Winner]

The thing is, doesn't a EU blockade require force, and doesn't force risk conflict, and if it's the EU's military being risked, doesn't that inherently call up NATO, and the USA by association? Then once you have the US partisan against Russia, it suggests a worrisome possibility of escalation.

If the EU started this, I don't think the Americans would join the party. Why should they? It would be a dangerous situation in which they wouldn't have any stakes.

And I don't think the EU would have to shoot first, it would simply stop any Russian vessels from going through Danish/Greek controlled waters - it's their right to do this (citing "security concerns" or something like that). If the Russians wanted to change that, they'd have to attack the EU ships - so they'd be the aggressors.

I think the path of least resistance would be for Russia to challenge the blockade directly to test the EU's resolve. And only then deflect towards asian interests if the EU was resolute.

How would they "challenge" it?

 

[GoodGame]

How would they "challenge" it?

I posted earlier of simply escorting their ships with military vessels and claiming any interdiction was 'piracy' (to be met with force) to the UN. Offloading cargo in EU nations would be a problem of course.

 

[Winner]

I posted earlier of simply escorting their ships with military vessels and claiming any interdiction was 'piracy' (to be met with force) to the UN. Offloading cargo in EU nations would be a problem of course.

Entering EU members' territorial waters with warships without their consent constitutes an act of war.

It would be a kind of "Cuban crisis" scenario. Russians backed off when they realized that the Americans would have started shooting at their ships.