How would Russia react to EU economic blockade?

[civhelp121]

What you don't understand? I don't claim the USSR was a paradise of democracy, this is ridiculous.
The question was how the only nation which used nuclear weapons, which had this:

about 50 years ago (whereas evil totalitarian USSR had equal rights for all nationalities), can be called "champion of human rights"?

You really like to judge the US based on its past or its hypothetical future don't you? Ever notice that an African-American has become president of the US? Or are you going to ignore the present and judge the US based on its past?

 

[Snorrius]

EU has many disadvantages, its (lack of) will to fight for starters. It's being further crippled by lack of unity and central government. This will surely play a role in my scenario - in fact it will allow the Russians to advance to Berlin before Europe get its act together and realizes that it is really in war

You sure have a wild imagination. Why Russia should try even cross Poland border? Look what happened with EU after they took them aboard .

 

[Snorrius]

You really like to judge the US based on its past or its hypothetical future don't you? Ever notice that an African-American has become president of the US? Or are you going to ignore the present and judge the US based on its past?

Errr.. Look, EnlightenHK actually boasted by 100 years of glorious American history, we just had to remind tovarishch that he is too optimistic about his own country which is actually a paragon of sin for many.

 

[Winner]

You sure have a wild imagination. Why Russia should try even cross Poland border? Look what happened with EU after they took them aboard .

It will be a pre-emptive strike. Russian goal will be to de-militarize Poland, save the pro-Russian regime in Belarus and subjugate the Baltic countries.

 

[Snorrius]

It will be a pre-emptive strike. Russian goal will be to de-militarize Poland, save the pro-Russian regime in Belarus and subjugate the Baltic countries.

And Baltics too? NOOOOOO!

 

[red_elk]

You really like to judge the US based on its past or its hypothetical future don't you? Ever notice that an African-American has become president of the US? Or are you going to ignore the present and judge the US based on its past?

I noticed also that he officially acknowledged existance of secret CIA prisons.

 

[Yeekim]

And Baltics too? NOOOOOO!

May I inquire, according to which fundamental indicators is Estonian economy more "crashed" than Russian one?

 

[Winner]

May I inquire, according to which fundamental indicators is Estonian economy more "crashed" than Russian one?

Pravda says so, I bet!

 

[yesboii]

Pravda says so, I bet!

No, it must be that expertly, frighteningly, accurate Russia KGB spy who says that the Chinese will influence California after the US breaks up into a million pieces.

 

[Snorrius]

Jeez, guys, just read some economy articles on Baltics if you are really interested. Of course, Estonia is not as bad as Latvia, but they are just next in queue with Lithuania. In short, Baltics have little to sell, too much to repay, have too open economy for being such small and insignificant in the terms of world trade.

And it is Estonia who plead to IMF, not Russia.

 

[RedRalph]

EU has many disadvantages, its (lack of) will to fight for starters. It's being further crippled by lack of unity and central government. This will surely play a role in my scenario - in fact it will allow the Russians to advance to Berlin before Europe get its act together and realizes that it is really in war

Winner, come on man. We dont agree on anything really, but you are living in the real world. Russia vs the EU is David and Goliath stuff. It's not 1983 anymore.

 

[Camikaze]

David won.

 

[Yeekim]

Jeez, guys, just read some economy articles on Baltics if you are really interested. Of course, Estonia is not as bad as Latvia, but they are just next in queue with Lithuania. In short, Baltics have little to sell, too much to repay, have too open economy for being such small and insignificant in the terms of world trade.

So you have no facts to present, just like I presumed.
Also, I understand you believe that when a country is small, it should go for "closed" economy? WTH?

And it is Estonia who plead to IMF, not Russia.

So? It is also Estonia, who has currently 3rd smallest public debt in the world (in relation to GDP).
EDIT: Also, I believe that Russia should be the last country to point fingers at people who take loans from IMF

 

[Snorrius]

So you have no facts to present, just like I presumed.
Also, I understand you believe that when a country is small, it should go for "closed" economy? WTH?

I just said you have a very open economy combined with small size of your economy which does not affect the world one. It means that you especially vulnerable to international crisis. There is not much Baltics can do now (I doubt Baltics will be allowed to introduce capital flow control, and it is probably already late).

As for debts, combined external debt of Estonia is actually more than 100% GDP. I remember Winner suggested to occupy countries which can not repay their debts...

EDIT: Also, I believe that Russia should be the last country to point fingers at people who take loans from IMF

Why not? We do not take loans now .

 

[Yeekim]

I just said you have a very open economy combined with small size of your economy which does not affect the world one. It means that you especially vulnerable to international crisis. There is not much Baltics can do now (I doubt Baltics will be allowed to introduce capital flow control, and it is probably already late).

That is one aspect of being small. There is also another one

23.03.2009 .The economies of Lithuania and the rest of the Baltic States have hopes of recovering faster than larger European countries, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said during a meeting with Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius on Friday in Brussels, LETA reports.

The German leader believes that people in Europe must be ready for a long and difficult road ahead, which must be taken to get over the current economic crisis, because it will take a long time for the European Union to reach the level it was at before the crisis.

''Being smaller and more elastic, Lithuania and the economies of the other Baltic States, have hope of recovering faster than larger European countries,'' Merkel pointed out.

http://www.balticbusinessnews.com/D...dfd2d-0e96-4fb7-9d75-9f892e4c1bff&ref=rss

As for debts, combined external debt of Estonia is actually more than 100% GDP. I remember Winner suggested to occupy countries which can not repay their debts...

...due to the fact that virtually every last loan taken by enterprises or private persons is taken from Scandinavian banks. It does not mean that Estonian populace or enterprises are more heavily indebted than those of other countries.

Why not? We do not take loans now .

But you might. The other solution would be to print more money.

MOSCOW, March 19 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's federal budget deficit will reach 3 trillion rubles ($88 billion) in 2009 amid the ongoing financial crisis, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

"Revenues will total 6.7 trillion rubles [$198 billion] and expenditures 9.7 trillion rubles [287 billion], with the deficit of 3 trillion rubles, which is almost 50% of revenues or 7.4% of GDP," Putin said.

At the same time, the premier said he believed it unreasonable and dangerous to resort to printing money to cover the country's budget deficit.

"The deficit problem must be resolved through civilized, internationally recognized methods - from reserves accumulated in previous years or, if the need arises - but I want to point out that we have had no need for this approach so far - through loans on market conditions," Putin said.

Putin added that Russia would have to live with a budget deficit for the next several years.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090319/120647099.html

 

[Yeekim]

...due to the fact that virtually every last loan taken by enterprises or private persons is taken from Scandinavian banks. It does not mean that Estonian populace or enterprises are more heavily indebted than those of other countries.

...which, as I might add, is a blessing rather than weakness. Latvian and Icelandic crises owed largely to the failure of their domestic banks, whereas Scandinavian banks are still solid.

As for Russian banks...

Hundreds of Russian banks could go bankrupt by the end of this year, said Peter Aven, president of Alfa Bank. The main reason for bankruptcy is than the level of bad loans may hit 15-20 percent. Peter Aven hopes that about 20-30 major Russian banks will receive the support from the Russian government.

"We can expect that the level of overdue loans for the whole system might reach 15-20 percent by the end of the year," said Aven in interview with the Financial Times .
"Maybe the 20-30 biggest banks, including Alfa, will receive state support - we're sure. But the future of hundreds of small banks is under big question... I believe that hundreds of banks will disappear by the end of the year," he said.

Russian banks can count on further state help, possibly seeing all profits erased in 2009 if bad loans rise to 10 percent. This could force them to make provisions of $45 billion, Russia officials said earlier this week.

Russia Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Thursday that, in reality, overdue loans are at around 10 percent already, Reuters reports.

Russia 's 1,200-plus banks have been hit hard by the credit crunch, the rouble's depreciation, a collapse in domestic stock markets and the first recession in a decade.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9693.html
Draw your conclusions.

 

[Shaihulud]

Is there any condition why EU will renegotiate with Russia? I do not believe that EU is a cohesive entity and that man of its members would rather drop the terms than risk conflict with Russia.

 

[Winner]

Winner, come on man. We dont agree on anything really, but you are living in the real world. Russia vs the EU is David and Goliath stuff. It's not 1983 anymore.

David won.

Exactly what I needed this morning

Russia in my scenario doesn't plan to conquer or occupy Europe, that would be ASB, totally impossible. It plans to score an early victory before Europe can get a grip on itself and then dictate the peace terms to the intimidated and morally broken Western Europeans.

Besides, it would be no fun if Europe just steamrolled Russia, I want some suspense in the story

 

[RedRalph]

Well what would constitute scoring an early victory to you?

 

[Winner]

Well what would constitute scoring an early victory to you?

Russian soldiers along the Elbe, Berlin surrounded German will to fight collapses then, the W. European powers give up and make a deal with the Russians, who offer favourable conditions: demilitarization/neutralization of Poland plus other Central European countries and free hand in Eastern Europe (that's Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova for you) and Caucasus. In addition, Baltic coutries will leave the EU and join Russian-led reformed CIS, which will in fact constitute a Russian protectorate over them. Russian goal is to create a safe environment for Russian interests, a sphere of influence free of Western meddling. By neutralizing the bothersome post-commies inside the EU, Russia ensures that the EU will leave Russia alone and doesn't interfere in its sphere - then the Russians will be able to conduct business with Europe once again.

At least that was the Russian plan