Hurricane Ivan

[dgfred]

I'd rather a hurricane hit me every week than to live in below 0 weather.

I hate the cold too .

 

[stormbind]

I prefer variety. Sometimes like clear blue sky and beating heat... other times I like snow so thick you can lose your legs in it.

Apparently, Yakutsk is one place where both extremes are experienced. I wouldn't want to live there though. I like sea air.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Apparently, Yakutsk is one place where both extremes are experienced.

You don't need to go to Yakutsk. Chicago will suffice for that.

 

[Quasar1011]

hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 22
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Tue Sep 07 2004

"An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Just Measured A Pressure Of 956 Mb
With A Drop And 955 Mb Extrapolated From 700 Mb. It Also Measured
118 Knots At Flight Level And A Closed Eyewall Of 14 Nmi Diameter.
T-numbers Remain At 5.5 On The Dvorak Scale. Initial Intensity Is
105 Knots. Ships Model Indicate That The Shear Will Remain Low Over
The Central And Western Caribbean. Global Models Appear To Show A
Favorable Upper-level Environment For Strengthening. In
Addition...ivan Is Expected To Reach The Western Caribbean Sea
Where There Is An Area Of High Ocean Heat Content...high Octane Gas
For Hurricanes...which Could Add To The Intensification. Ivan
Could Become Stronger Than Forecast. indications Are That There
Will Be A Very Dangerous Hurricane Over The Northwestern Caribbean
Sea...western Cuba Or Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico In Five Days.
"

Below is the computer model output graph. Please note that the thick red line is the official forecast track. you can see how the models diverge on their handling of Ivan by this weekend. This storm could strike Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, or elsewhere up the Gulf or Atlantic coasts of the USA. Stay tuned!

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Hey Quasar1011, will we still be getting these accurate reports if this thing heads straight for the Mobile coastal area? Or would you plan on evacuating?

Are you military? I know in the Marines (MCAS Beaufort SC - back '99) with Hurricane Floyd... my room mate was a Wx guy... and he told me they were they only ones staying! They had a small RAFT... tied to the flagpole outside the building, if it really came down to it! Now those are some real troopers. Marine Corps meteorologists.

A raft... tied to the flagpole.... :shakehead

 

[Quasar1011]

Hey Quasar1011, will we still be getting these accurate reports if this thing heads straight for the Mobile coastal area? Or would you plan on evacuating?

Are you military?

Ex-Air Force. My rank is now XSgt But I left in the 1980s and have been working for private weather companies ever since, including a stint at an Atlanta cable TV network.

I would most likely not evacuate. The airport terminal doubles as a shelter, and I live 2 miles from there. I would likely go there, since it is across the street from the NWS forecast office complete with Doppler radar. I'd want to keep abreast of things as they happen. Besides, I've chased a few hurricanes in my time, most notably Georges in 1998 along the Mississippi coast. I'd pull out my hand-held anemometer and try to take readings, even if off-duty!

 

[Quasar1011]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 27
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Wed Sep 08 2004

Ivan Went Through A Period Of Rapid Deepening This Afternoon...with
The Central Pressure Falling From 951 To 938 Mb In A Period Of
About 5.5 Hours. The Maximum 700 Mb Flight Level-winds Were 131
Kt...and A Northeast Eyewall Dropsonde Suggested Surface Winds Near
120 Kt. Based On The Dropsonde And The Pressure...the Maximum
Intensity Is Increased To 125 Kt...which Is In Good Agreement With
127 Kt Satellite Intensity Estimates From Tafb...sab...and Afwa.
The Satellite Signature Of The Hurricane Has Not Changed
Significantly Since The Hurricane Hunter Left...so It Is Unknown If
The Deepening Has Continued. The Initial Intensity Could Be A
Little Conservative.

 

[stormbind]

That's drifting kind of low, it might go straight up through the gulf of mexico!

Are the lines in the previous graph predictions by competing sources? UKMET is the UK national meteorological prediction?

 

[Quasar1011]

Are the lines in the previous graph predictions by competing sources? UKMET is the UK national meteorological prediction?

Yes, UKMET is the British model, which is one of the better ones at hurricane prediction. There are other mdels besides the ones on the graph.

Ivan is now a category 5 hurricane!

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

AIR FORCE RECON THIS MORNING HAS FOUND AN INTENSE HURRICANE IVAN.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 922 MB HAS DROPPED 15 MB IN THE PAST 7
HOURS...WHILE THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 154
KT...EQUAL TO 139 KT SURFACE WIND...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER ON TWO SEPARATE PASSES. IN ADDITION...AND EYEWALL
DROPSONDE RECORDED A WIND SPEED OF 175 KT AT ABOUT 630 FT ABOVE SEA
LEVEL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IVAN IS EASILY UPGRADED TO A
140-KT CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AS I WRITE...A NEW RECON REPORT
INDICATES AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 916 MB.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.

 

[Provolution]

First Vietnamese Charlie, then French Frances, then Russian Ivan, if it follows the chronological logic of Post WW2, the next three hurricanes would be Slobodan, Omar and
Saddam.

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Keep turnin' right, baby...

 

[Quasar1011]

First Vietnamese Charlie, then French Frances, then Russian Ivan, if it follows the chronological logic of Post WW2, the next three hurricanes would be Slobodan, Omar and
Saddam.

Omar is on the list of Pacific typhoon names.

 

[Cuivienen]

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Hrm. It couldn't possibly survive as a Category 5 after passing over Cuba, yes?

 

[Cuivienen]

Cuba isn't a terribly mountainous island; it won't be Category 5 after crossing Cuba, but it won't be far below, either. The Gulf of Mexico has even warmer water so it could restrengthen to a Category 5.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Nifty. As much as I hate to admit it, part of me wants to see Florida hit by a Category 5.

 

[stormbind]

Ha! I suggested it might go straight up the gulf

Sorry, I'm not hoping any specific region gets hit. Honest. Will there be any aid for Cuba?

 

[AVN]

I heart on the Dutch news that Ivan killed at least 20 people on Grenada and that almost all buildings on that island seem to be destroyed.

I guess they can use some help.

 

[Civrules]

Sorry, I'm not hoping any specific region gets hit. Honest. Will there be any aid for Cuba?

Yeah, feeling sorry for Cuba. Donno if there will be aid.
The housing on some other islands in the pond were about 90% destroied.

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Nifty. As much as I hate to admit it, part of me wants to see Florida hit by a Category 5.

Yeah, nothin' like some good killin', and homelessness makin'. Right on.

What kind of body count are you hoping for?