HYPOTHETICAL Middle East Scenario

[TheLastOne36]

thread closed

I don't know if it is cultural or genetic or the land is too crowded, but it is weird all this fascination people in Central Europe have with genocide, mass murder, forced sterilization and ethnic cleansing

Hmm? Your talking about the Balkans and Eastern Europe not us.

Germany was controlled by an evil racist, lunatic genius, someone like that can come out of any country, so let's exclude them from now, when have there been mass murder in our history? Poland historically was one of the most religiously tolerant countries on earth There have been no ethnic cleansing anywhere in Central Europe. The Czechs haven't officially started ethnic cleansing the Slovaks yet

Now look at Russia in Ukraine, Estonia, etc. all the mass murderer's and expansionism etc. in Eastern Europe, now let's look at the Balkans in the 90's.

Now do you see the fought in your post?

Yeah, well, remember this thread next time Winner is talking about his loathing for Muslims. I think this is more of a fantasy than a hypothesis.

Oh get of it, you care more about insulting Winner then answering his posts.

 

[MagisterCultuum]

I don't think the Israelis would ever seek permission from the U.S. to strike at targets in Iran.

What gives you that idea?

They already have sought permission from the U.S. to strike facilities in Iran. They asked for bunker-buster bombs, but mostly for the right to fly over Iraq. The U.S. said no (fearing that giving Israel permission to use Iraqi airspace would not go over well with the Iraqis and would lead to them forcing us out before our job there is done), and Israel scrapped the plan (although they may very well have gone forward with attempts at subterfuge, as the U.S. said it would be willing to help out with that).

 

[illram]

What would happen?

Hopefully, the trial of everyone responsible for war crimes in the ICJ. Including anyone culpable in Iran and Hamas. Then we can all celebrate that the World Court finally works, that everyone in the world agreed to treaty obligations promoting peace and justice such as the Rome Statute and Geneva Conventions, and justice and humanity will finally come to the world forever and ever via international cooperation for international justice. The End.

 

[RalofTyr]

Whoa, Tom Clancy, eat your heart out.

 

[Sharwood]

Whoa, Tom Clancy, eat your heart out.

This would make an excellent book, to be sure.

Regarding what I think would happen in this situation (which is extremely far out, but just on this side of impossible) taillesskangaru sums it up pretty well. Probable regime change in several ME states, radicalisation of the populace in many Islamic countries - including Tunisia and Indonesia - riots pretty much everywhere, but when it comes to Israel itself, it'll pretty much be business as usual.

 

[Zardnaar]

I read a book similar to this years ago called Crusade which resulted in the collapse of Israel.

 

[Sharwood]

I read a book similar to this years ago called Crusade which resulted in the collapse of Israel.

i too have read similar books. Total War 2006 springs to mind.

 

[Dachs]

Total War 2006 springs to mind.

The Rome version is better.

 

[Sharwood]

The Rome version is better.

Pff, just about any version would be better, you oh so witty person.

 

[RedRalph]

Germany was controlled by an evil racist, lunatic genius, someone like that can come out of any country, so let's exclude them from now

,

Now look at Russia in Ukraine, Estonia, etc. all the mass murderer's and expansionism etc. in Eastern Europe, now let's look at the Balkans in the 90's.

So let me get this straight: Germany gets a free pass because Hitler "could have come from anywhere", yet Russia and Serbia dont because...

Said it before and I'll say it again. Poles on this board have far more sympathy for Nazi Germany than they do for Russia of any era. Why is utterly beyond me, but there you go.

 

[HannibalBarka]

Hmm? Your talking about the Balkans and Eastern Europe not us.
Germany was controlled by an evil racist, lunatic genius, someone like that can come out of any country, so let's exclude them from now, when have there been mass murder in our history? Poland historically was one of the most religiously tolerant countries on earth There have been no ethnic cleansing anywhere in Central Europe. The Czechs haven't officially started ethnic cleansing the Slovaks yet
Now look at Russia in Ukraine, Estonia, etc. all the mass murderer's and expansionism etc. in Eastern Europe, now let's look at the Balkans in the 90's.
Now do you see the fought in your post?
Oh get of it, you care more about insulting Winner then answering his posts.

Out of my head:

1. The Shoa: blaming all of it on a single man is childish to say the least
2. Other extermination related to WWII: gypsies, gays, etc
3. Ethnic cleansing of the Sudeten and Silesian Germans from the Czeck Republic and Poland
4. Forced sterelization of gypsies in the Czeck republic
5. Different war cries in the recent Balkan wars: serbs exterminating bosniacs, croatians exterminating serbs, kosovars ethnic leansing serbs and serbs doing the same to the Kosovars etc

Add to that the daily calls to carpet bomb half the planet coming from the OP poster suggest that some people think that the only solution to a problem between two nations is to exterminate one of them !!!
Other than that you're right, it is business as usual

 

[BasketCase]

This one's pretty much impossible to even guess at.

On the one hand: the Israeli invasion that just ended yesterday didn't provoke much in the way of protests even though Gaza got beat up pretty badly. Second, world reaction to a chemical or nuclear attack against Israel would be one of outrage, and that would give Israel pretty much a blank check. Third, Israeli intel and military officials are a lot more astute than the average Joe Sixpack, and while Joe Sixpack would be distracted from Iran's nuclear program, Israel would NOT.

On the other hand: previous efforts by Israel to actually remove people from occupied land have resulted in very loud protests, not just by Arabs but worldwide.

So, such a wide-reaching invasion of Gaza would be a big ol' coin toss. Most likely, Winner's scenario will never happen; Hamas isn't quite that stupid. And since getting radioactive material with which to make a "dirty" missile is pretty damn easy these days, it's a safe bet that Hamas would already have done it if they thought they could benefit from it.

 

[Cato the Elder]

I'm actually with BasketCase here. A situation like you described, Winner, is simply so unlikely that it borders on the unrealistic.

If it were to come so far, and both Israel and Palestine would massively slaughter each other mercilessly, I don't think either side would get such massive support. I'm even pretty certain that Palestine would lose a lot of friends in the Arab world, as they used a nuclear attack on Israel, killing thousands of innocent people. That's what one calls disproportionate reaction.

 

[Winner]

This conviction of yours that western anti-Israel sentiment comes primarily from Arabs/Muslims is wrong and stupid.

They're the most significant contributor to it, one way or another

 

[Cato the Elder]

They're the most significant contributor to it, one way or another

Sources, lad, sources.

If we base it off anecdotal evidence, I can tell you that I haven't found anyone in my general vincinity who has approved of the recent Gaza War. White, brown, and black alike.

 

[Winner]

I'm actually with BasketCase here. A situation like you described, Winner, is simply so unlikely that it borders on the unrealistic.

Unrealistic from present point of view? Perhaps. On the other hand, did anybody predict Yugoslavia's collapse into genocide and large scale ethnic cleansing in 1988?

Also, we're talking about a nation which is prepared to nuke the whole Middle East into oblivion if it was about to be defeated. According to some source, there were words written on the first Israeli nuclear bomb: never again.

In my scenario, the nerve gas attack hits the soft spot of Israeli psyche. Seeing their people being gassed again acts like a switch which turns off their scruples. The right wing coalition then uses this atmosphere to get rid of the Gaza problem without fearing domestic backlash.

It's a stretch, but the scenario is supposed to be only a set-up. I want to examine the reactions of other countries and other possible ramifications.

If it were to come so far, and both Israel and Palestine would massively slaughter each other mercilessly, I don't think either side would get such massive support. I'm even pretty certain that Palestine would lose a lot of friends in the Arab world, as they used a nuclear attack on Israel, killing thousands of innocent people. That's what one calls disproportionate reaction.

The scenario doesn't include a nuclear strike, only a "dirty bomb" is used. While the Arab governments would not support that (they don't like Hamas any more than Israel), I think they'd just wait for the Israeli reprisal to start ranting about Zionist aggression. But if Israel resorted to such a huge crackdown, I think they wouldn't know how to react. Especially if they were flooded with refugees and would have to take care of them (I mean really care, not just talk about how they care while they ignore them).

 

[Pannonius]

Out of my head:

1. The Shoa: blaming all of it on a single man is childish to say the least
2. Other extermination related to WWII: gypsies, gays, etc
3. Ethnic cleansing of the Sudeten and Silesian Germans from the Czeck Republic and Poland
4. Forced sterelization of gypsies in the Czeck republic
5. Different war cries in the recent Balkan wars: serbs exterminating bosniacs, croatians exterminating serbs, kosovars ethnic leansing serbs and serbs doing the same to the Kosovars etc

Add to that the daily calls to carpet bomb half the planet coming from the OP poster suggest that some people think that the only solution to a problem between two nations is to exterminate one of them !!!
Other than that you're right, it is business as usual

Do you know what is a Kosovar? It's not an ethnic group.

 

[TheLastOne36]

,


So let me get this straight: Germany gets a free pass because Hitler "could have come from anywhere", yet Russia and Serbia dont because...

Said it before and I'll say it again. Poles on this board have far more sympathy for Nazi Germany than they do for Russia of any era. Why is utterly beyond me, but there you go.

Russia And Serbia never had a Hitler. I don't understand your logic here. And if you say that Stalin killed more people then Hitler did, then i'll laugh. There are different reasons for killing people, hitler killed them because they were gypsies or gays or jews, Stalin didn't just because they were something.

Poles everywhere have more sympathy for Germany in WWII because the Germans themselves were caught in the middle of things. You think the average citizen could've done anything to stop Hitler? No, and if they spoke out, they'd be killed. Ounce war started they were drafted most likely against there will. I don't know why people like you don't see that.

Out of my head:

1. The Shoa: blaming all of it on a single man is childish to say the least
2. Other extermination related to WWII: gypsies, gays, etc
3. Ethnic cleansing of the Sudeten and Silesian Germans from the Czeck Republic and Poland
4. Forced sterelization of gypsies in the Czeck republic
5. Different war cries in the recent Balkan wars: serbs exterminating bosniacs, croatians exterminating serbs, kosovars ethnic leansing serbs and serbs doing the same to the Kosovars etc

Add to that the daily calls to carpet bomb half the planet coming from the OP poster suggest that some people think that the only solution to a problem between two nations is to exterminate one of them !!!
Other than that you're right, it is business as usual

1. Explain. It was one man's idea's that forced the extermination of groups of people. Of course there were people in his party that helped him, but otherwise it was Hitler's idea's that caused the Damage.
2. hmm? again what do we have to do with it? It was the Nazi controlled Germany.
3. Forced by Russians. We didn't really have much of a say in it.
4. Winner can answer that, he knowsmore about it then me.
5. your point being?

Winner can defend himself for that. Your stereotyping right now btw, one man's thought's does not mean an entire group of nations thinks that way.

 

[TheLastOne36]

Do you know what is a Kosovar? It's not an ethnic group.

I think he was referring to the group of Albanians who live in Kosovo, the Albanians in Albania aren't active on the whole Kosovo issue, other then giving support and possibly the smuggling of weapons to the terrorists there.

 

[RalofTyr]

It would have been better if the NBC attacks turned the Israelis into zombies because they used some radioactive oil drums Iranian agents sneaked off a top secret US military base.