I just don't see it as successful even for a casual audience. It's extremely slow and boring at the start; worse in fact than prior versions. The MMO companies, by contrast, give new players tons of goodies - you level up at every turn almost no matter what you do. Ditto for the Facebook games. It's not just that Civ 5 isn't aimed at the Civ 1-4 crowd; it's that it's still too complex for the FarmVille gang, too slow at the start, and things like the poor AI are obvious even for new players (e.g. why don't they ever seem to invade me over seas.) If you're going to sell out, at least you should do so well.