Is this the next big one?!

[Bozo Erectus]

Possibly. But if Iran was determined to go out in a blaze of black gold glory, they would probably just use their missiles to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz difficult for tankers. 25% of the world's oil goes through there.

I dont think its an either or. They could do both. Im not saying they will. It depends on whether they feel that dragging the US into a fullscale regional war would ultimately benefit them. We're stretched to the limit right now with the occupation of Iraq, theyre fully aware of that. Can we really afford, in every sense of the word, a multifront Mid East conflict and subsequent occupation?

But I can't imagine Iran doing any such thing. Iran is the sweet spot right now. As long as they don't mess with oil, they're free to be as nasty as they like, and to pursue their nuclear ambitions. They're really not stupid. They'll take the opportunity to flex their muscles and send some pain Israel's way via proxy, but they'll play (relatively) nice in Iraq and do their best to make sure everyone gets their oil fix. When you're raking in almost $80 a barrel, why do anything else?

Why do you think Hamas and Hezbollah chose this time to provoke Israel? Because Iran wanted them to. They got it up to almost $80 with their proxies, wouldnt be too difficult for them to get to $100, at this point. A destabilised ME very much favors Iran at this moment, not only because of the price of oil, it also takes the focus away from them and their nuclear goals.

 

[El_Machinae]

We're stretched to the limit right now with the occupation of Iraq, theyre fully aware of that.

I don't think the USA is really stretched. Maybe they're at the limit without sacrificing current quality-of-life of the civilians (already sacrificed the children to paying down debt), but that's it.

There's a LOT of 'belt-tightening' potential there. And I think that, in general, Iran's belts are already tightened

 

[Che Guava]

Ram: Thanks for the notes. Did a little looking myself and came up with a few more quotable quotes from the region:

(not as reliable news sources, so I just stuck to actual quotes:


Turkey:Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sharply criticized Israel over the weekend for using excessive force in its offensives in Lebanon and called for an immediate cease-fire.

"No reason can ever justify the raining of bombs on innocent civilians, the destruction of cities exceeding the limits of mercy," Erdogan said during a public speech in the eastern city of Artvin.

link

Jordan: "His Majesty King Abdullah II on Monday received a phone call from Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Sanyoura, during which His Majesty expressed Jordan's solidarity with the Lebanese people in the face of the Israeli aggression.

His Majesty stressed his condemnation and censure of the continuous Israeli aggression, which has led to the loss of hundreds of dead and wounded Lebanese people and the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure.

His Majesty affirmed Jordan's readiness to put all its potentials at the service of Lebanon and to contribute to the rebuilding of what was destroyed by the Israeli war machines."

link

Egypt: "Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called on Sunday for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

"I'm urging an immediate, unconditional ceasefire," Mubarak was quoted by Egypt's official MENA news agency as saying.

"Egypt's top concern is a peaceful end to the conflict between Israel and Lebanon for fear of a deterioration of the situation in the region," he added.

The Egyptian president also called on Israel to end its five- day-old assault in Lebanon, which was launched after the Lebanese Shiite militia Hizbollah seized two Israeli soldiers and killed eight in cross-border clashes on Wednesday.

"Israel will not emerge as a victor in this war. It will only create more enemies," said Mubarak. "The war will only inflame Arab animosity toward Israel, many anti-Israel extremist forces will surface and Israel will find itself the loser rather than the victor in this war." "

link


I'm not sure what will happen, but I think that Syria will be the test. If fighting spills into Syria, Israel invades, or syrians start rioting (or any combinations of the above) and the current regime collapses, I think we could end up with a lot of nervous despots who will realize their time is short. What happens from there is anyone's gues...

 

[Little Raven]

Why do you think Hamas and Hezbollah chose this time to provoke Israel? Because Iran wanted them to. They got it up to almost $80 with their proxies, wouldnt be too difficult for them to get to $100, at this point. A destabilised ME very much favors Iran at this moment, not only because of the price of oil, it also takes the focus away from them and their nuclear goals.

But that's true only so long as Iran doesn't do anything overt. The second missiles from Iran slam into something unprovoked, the rules change, and everyone (even the Russians and the Chinese) begin calling for the Mullah's heads on sticks. I agree that Iran will likely arm proxy groups and encourage bad people to do bad things. But they will not launch an overt attack.

They don't need to.

 

[RameNoodle]

My advice: bet them. Bet your inheritance that they're wrong. For example:

"I bet $30,000 that the world WON'T end in the next five years"

This wouldn't be too good of a bet, because its a lose-lose one for his parents. If it doesn't end, they're out of thirty grand, and if it does, well, there ya go.

I don't think this will escalate into WWIII, but I think that if Iran and Syria get involved, the U.S. will have to do something. Not militarily, but financially for Israel.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

But that's true only so long as Iran doesn't do anything overt. The second missiles from Iran slam into something unprovoked, the rules change, and everyone (even the Russians and the Chinese) begin calling for the Mullah's heads on sticks. I agree that Iran will likely arm proxy groups and encourage bad people to do bad things. But they will not launch an overt attack.

They don't need to.

Youre absolutely right. They dont need to yet. I think they might be planning to ratchet it up as far as necessary to complete their nuclear plans. We started leaning on them hard over the nukes, so Tehran made a few phone calls and created the current crisis. If we remain backed off the nuclear issue, then no, they wont need to take overt action. But if we continue to apply pressure? Like I said I think they might be prepared to take it as far as we're willing to go. They wont be prevented from acquiring nukes.

 

[Bozo Erectus]

I don't think the USA is really stretched. Maybe they're at the limit without sacrificing current quality-of-life of the civilians (already sacrificed the children to paying down debt), but that's it.

America isnt about 'freedom' and all that other stuff. Its about malls, SUVs, and cheap plentiful affordable goods etc. $150 (or higher) a barrel oil would put an end to all that.

 

[Sidhe]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5175160.stm

I wasn't sure what to cherry pick out of this, as it's all pretty interesting.

On the morning News a BBC reporter interviewed a Beirut minister calling for a cease fire, and condemning the overreaction of Israel as unwarranted. This article backs up that stand.

Israel is imposing an air and sea blockade on Lebanon as part of a major offensive after two soldiers were seized by the militant group Hezbollah.

Israeli warships have blocked Lebanese ports, and its international airport was closed after Israeli bombing.

A Lebanese cabinet minister said the Israeli response was disproportionate, and called for a ceasefire.

Raids on targets across south Lebanon have killed at least 35. Two have died in Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

The operation comes as Israel continues a separate offensive in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli soldier was captured there last month.

See map of crisis in Lebanon

The offensive in Lebanon follows a day of heavy fighting in which the Israelis suffered their worst losses on the border for several years.

Eight soldiers were killed and two were injured, in addition to the two captured in a Hezbollah ambush. The captured men have now been named as Ehud Goldwasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26.


Israeli artillery unit fires across the border into southern Lebanon

Israel hits Gaza ministry
In pictures: Israeli offensive
Capture marks escalation

Hezbollah guerrillas also fired volleys of rockets at the northern Israeli coastal town of Nahariya, killing one Israeli and injuring 14 others.

They also fired seven rockets at the town of Safed, 15km (9 miles) inside the Israeli border, injuring 11 people. One woman later died of her wounds.

Hezbollah has threatened to attack the Israeli port city of Haifa if Israel bombs Beirut. Israel has warned people in the Lebanese capital's southern suburbs to evacuate.

But it is not clear whether Haifa, which is 30km (19 miles) from the Israeli border, is within range of Hezbollah's rockets.

The Israeli army says several rockets have landed more than 20km (12 miles) south of the border, suggesting that Hezbollah has managed to extend their range.

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told the BBC that Israel was responding to "an unprovoked act of aggression" by Lebanon.

But Lebanese minister Naila Mouawad said Israel had responded disproportionately. The Lebanese government wanted a ceasefire, she said, calling for the two captured soldiers to be returned to Israel.

US President George Bush described Hezbollah as a "group of terrorists who want to stop the advance of peace".

Speaking in Germany, he said Israel had the right to defend itself, but its action should not weaken the Lebanese government.

France and Russia condemned Israel's "disproportionate use of force".

Guys your speculations are merely that, you remind me of conspiracy theorists.

I agree with El Machinae, this isn't going to turn into world war three, I'm still banking on it blowing over, unless something big happens it probably will.

Israel can't afford to make too many enemies and I think it's wise enough not to escalate the situation too far, although apparently not that wise.

We'll see: I'm not going to make supositions on who started what and why without a single piece of evidence, not yet anyway it's still early days

 

[betazed]

<snip> But if we continue to apply pressure? <snip>

What pressure could possibly anyone apply short of a full-scale military assault? You can't sanction them, because you need their oil and gas. Till the time their oil does not run out, they can pretty much keep doing what they are doing.

 

[soul_warrior]

i believe that:

a- israel DOES NOT want either new land, nor another "nest of trouble"
b- Lebanon -never really left the 80s hell hole it was in
c- iran controls syria, which in turn controls lebanon.
d- israel WILL NOT BACK DOWN. whatever the cost! till there is a NEW order of things (that is a 3 hour old quote of the israeli PM, on an adress to the nation)

these lead me to believe that:
1- lebanon will be reinforced as the bull's eye of the IDF, and a good training ground to rescue operator.
2- the rest of the arab world will wait for a few more days-weeks andsee that israel will not back down.
3- the arabs WILL remove thier support of hezzbulla, and either syria or iran or both will act agressively.
4- israel will warn them to stop, maybe via an errant bombing run or six
5- the US and Russia will try to cool everybody's heels, by offering cash incentives
6- iran succumbs, acomplishing what the wantedall along - to beleft alone for a few more years till the perfect thier nukes.
7- we wait years, rinse, repeat!

 

[Grohan]

Israel has recently irritated Syria many times.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4AC3B02A-4F36-4AD6-BDA4-3D7214E63979.htm
Syria wanted revenge and they struck against Israel through Hezbollah. Now Israel probably uses the situation to their advantage and they try to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The war will become bigger if Syria feels that they are threatened by Israel (ie. Israel could station troops on Lebanon-Syria border). If that happens then the other arab countries may join the war too.

 

[GoldEagle]

This wouldn't be too good of a bet, because its a lose-lose one for his parents. If it doesn't end, they're out of thirty grand, and if it does, well, there ya go.

Wrong. According to them, they'll "be in Heaven with Jesus".

 

[El_Machinae]

GoldEagle; 20 years ago, I made this bet with my mom (truely) and it was $30,000 in 30 years. And she made it. Of course, I'm sure she's forgotten, but the El_Mac that I was thought he was awfully clever.

 

[Che Guava]

ok, here' a question for y'all: what do you think would hapen if pressure from this conflect ended up in the collapse of the Syrian gov't (not saying that it's more than likely, but it could happen...!)

 

[Bozo Erectus]

ok, here' a question for y'all: what do you think would hapen if pressure from this conflect ended up in the collapse of the Syrian gov't (not saying that it's more than likely, but it could happen...!)

I dont see how or why the Syrian government would collapse because of current events. Unless of course they were invaded by Israel, which at the moment doesnt seem to be very likely.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

I sure hope this is the "Next big one". My Poli Sci classes are boring without this stuff and everytime the situation calms down my progress in Doom 3 on the Laptop drops, and its not cool.

 

[classical_hero]

My advice: bet them. Bet your inheritance that they're wrong. For example:

"I bet $30,000 that the world WON'T end in the next five years"

Give seven years and you might lose.

 

[El_Machinae]

Wanna bet?

 

[Che Guava]

I dont see how or why the Syrian government would collapse because of current events. Unless of course they were invaded by Israel, which at the moment doesnt seem to be very likely.

I think I could see a few scenarios ending up with Syria being invaded (keeping in mind that my knowledge of middle eastern politics is superficial at best ). Syria's relationship with the US has deteriorated a lot since they were 'cooperative' after 9-11, so if hizbollah gets pushed out of lebanon and decides to head for safer ground in Syria, I'm sure that the israelis won't be afraid to follow them. If Syria's borders get crossed, who knows what might happen? I've read that a lot of Syria's funds are frozen right now by the US and allied, and that resentment of the ba'ath party has grown since the country has lifted a lot of the internet/cellphone bans it had.

Just my $0.02

 

[Bozo Erectus]

Syria's relationship with the US has deteriorated a lot since they were 'cooperative' after 9-11, so if hizbollah gets pushed out of lebanon and decides to head for safer ground in Syria, I'm sure that the israelis won't be afraid to follow them. If Syria's borders get crossed, who knows what might happen? I've read that a lot of Syria's funds are frozen right now by the US and allied, and that resentment of the ba'ath party has grown since the country has lifted a lot of the internet/cellphone bans it had.

The only way I see Israel attacking Syria is if rockets begin to be fired from Syrian territory. If that were to happen, Israeli attacks would only strengthen the Assad regime, not make it collapse. The situation in Syria is very different from Lebanon. In Syria you have a strong central government, in Lebanon you have a very weak, impotent government that is suffered to live by Hezbollah, the real power in Lebanon.