Winner
Diverse in Unity
This seems like a Vietnam 1975 moment for America. Will Fall of Baghdad follow?
Let's assume this is correct (ignoring for the moment the mystery of Kuwait), that is sort of what you'd expect the British to do - the simplest way of carving up a country. Keep the boundaries used by the previous empire.This is incorrect. The borders of Syria and Iraq follow Ottoman Borders. Iraq, for example, is comprised of three Ottoman era Vilayets, or provinces, Mosul, Baghdad and Basra which were grouped together for administrative purposes under the Ottomans. Prior to being split into three in 1864, Iraq was all part of Baghdad Eyalet and had been governed like that since the Ottomans took it in the 1530s. So the contention that the British and French just drew lines on a map is nonsense.
Let's assume this is correct (ignoring for the moment the mystery of Kuwait), that is sort of what you'd expect the British to do - the simplest way of carving up a country. Keep the boundaries used by the previous empire.
Yet what reason is there to suppose that the Ottoman borders took cognizance of ethnic and religious divisions either?
Yes, that's true. But there's another rule: colonial borders seldom move and states seldom fall apart.Borders are notoriously porous, aren't they? And people will go where they see their best advantage; as far as they are able.
I think we're likely witnessing the partition of Iraq, and indeed the nation state as a whole may be on the way out globally. Though obviously not immediately.
And while we're about it, I never did understand Lebanon.
OK. But then when they reach Baghdad the Shia majority there are going to be seriously pushing back the other way. Isn't this how borders get redefined?ISIS doesn't stand for the Islamic State of Sunni Enclaves. It's also quite keen on pushing on into non-Sunni areas, including Baghdad and has promised to drive the Alawi into the sea. If it was just a regionalist rebellion, we'd be freaking out way way less.
Let me see if I can noodle this out.
1. The rebel ISIS is Sunni. Like the Saudis. They are a minority in Iraq, but have long ruled. The Saudis have long support Sunni rule as most Saudis are Sunni. ISIS is opposed by Syria (and visa versa).
2. The government are mostly made up of Shia. They are a majority in Iraq, but have long been oppressed. They are supported by the US, who put them in power, and oddly Iran. American support is quite weak. Other possible allies include the new government in Cairo.
The Kurds are wild cards and will have their whey no matter what happens. The Palestinians can be counted on to support whoever loses.
This seems like a Vietnam 1975 moment for America. Will Fall of Baghdad follow?
Borachio said:OK. But then when they reach Baghdad the Shia majority there are going to be seriously pushing back the other way. Isn't this how borders get redefined?
Borachio said:I've little sympathy for the Iraqi and Syrian regimes, nasty though the Isis forces seem to be. Neither of them seem to have made any efforts to take into account the interests of their resident minorities. Isn't the current turmoil a result of this as much as anything else?
Cheezy The Wiz said:Except these lunatics are nothing like the Vietnamese communists and nationalists, who were fighting to reunite their country. They're carving out a conservative terror state so terrifying that Iranians and Iraqis are uniting to stop them, and now the Americans are considering action as well.
Except these lunatics are nothing like the Vietnamese communists and nationalists, who were fighting to reunite their country. They're carving out a conservative terror state so terrifying that Iranians and Iraqis are uniting to stop them, and now the Americans are considering action as well.
Let me see if I can noodle this out.
1. The rebel ISIS is Sunni. Like the Saudis. They are a minority in Iraq, but have long ruled. The Saudis have long support Sunni rule as most Saudis are Sunni. ISIS is opposed by Syria (and visa versa).
This is not the case for Syria... I don't think the government has been that hard on Sunnis.
More like ISIS is opposed by pretty much everyone, possibly even by the Saudis. While I wouldn't put it pass elements within the infamously feuding Saudi royal family and/or the ulema to support ISIS covertly, the Saudis - themselves supposedly puritanical Wahhabis - have long had problems with religious extremists trying to one-up them. ISIS after all is an offshoot (albeit disowned) of Al Qaeda, which is no friend of the House of Saud.
taillesskangaru said:I can see how if a Sunni kid is occasionally dragged off to the Mukhabarat torture chambers on suspicion of Muslim Brotherhood activity or whatever, his family and neighbours might think it's some sort of sectarian thing to keep them in line.
This Sunni group consists predominately of the very same rebels who have been fighting in Syria with Saudi support for years, as well as Baathists who were part of Saddam Hussein's government and military. The only thing which appears to be different is that they have a new leader who is a bit more of a "jihadist" than usual. But their goal is the same thing. They want Sunnis to be in power instead of Shia, just like the Saudis do.More like ISIS is opposed by pretty much everyone, possibly even by the Saudis. While I wouldn't put it pass elements within the infamously feuding Saudi royal family and/or the ulema to support ISIS covertly, the Saudis - themselves supposedly puritanical Wahhabis - have long had problems with religious extremists trying to one-up them. ISIS after all is an offshoot (albeit disowned) of Al Qaeda, which is no friend of the House of Saud.
It represents a failure of the US to establish a stable country capable of taking care of its own defence after a decade of heavy US military involvement. The specific issues are of course very different, but the bitter aftertaste is kind of the same.