Mise
isle of lucy
Guys, is there an easy proof/simplification for the following thing:
If you have a 1 in x chance of something happening, then after x attempts, the probability of that thing not having happened yet is p = (1-1/x)^x. Now, as x->infinity, the probability tends to 1/e (I know this because I recognise the numbers when I calculate it). But how do you prove that? Do you have to do some sort of clever series thing to expand the bracket when raised to the power of x?
The rule of thumb is useful in board games: if I select a thing that has a 1 in 20 chance of happening during each turn, then I know that, after 20 turns, there is a ~2/3 chance of it happening at least once. In Settlers of Catan, for instance, it's easy to calculate the probability of rolling a 4 as a 1 in 12 chance (in fact, the number of dots on the hex tells you that it's a 3 in 36 chance). So you can estimate that, with 4 people playing, there'll be a 2/3 chance that a 4 will be rolled at some point during the next 3 rounds (i.e. after the dice have been rolled 12 times). Obviously for small x it doesn't work so well, but for small x it's easy enough to do in your head.
If you have a 1 in x chance of something happening, then after x attempts, the probability of that thing not having happened yet is p = (1-1/x)^x. Now, as x->infinity, the probability tends to 1/e (I know this because I recognise the numbers when I calculate it). But how do you prove that? Do you have to do some sort of clever series thing to expand the bracket when raised to the power of x?
The rule of thumb is useful in board games: if I select a thing that has a 1 in 20 chance of happening during each turn, then I know that, after 20 turns, there is a ~2/3 chance of it happening at least once. In Settlers of Catan, for instance, it's easy to calculate the probability of rolling a 4 as a 1 in 12 chance (in fact, the number of dots on the hex tells you that it's a 3 in 36 chance). So you can estimate that, with 4 people playing, there'll be a 2/3 chance that a 4 will be rolled at some point during the next 3 rounds (i.e. after the dice have been rolled 12 times). Obviously for small x it doesn't work so well, but for small x it's easy enough to do in your head.