Let's talk about oil

[Narz]

Overall up in the last twenty years. The next twenty years is the more important concern. The last few have been fairly stagnant, iirc.

 

[CavLancer]

If you look a little deeper into where from the figures come for the oil reserves of nations you might come away feeling less sure. Certainly I'd like to post a link for that statement but its info I've come across in prior years in studying the problem and I can't do better than that.

 

[Cutlass]

Quick question: have proven reserves gone up or down in the last 20 years?

That's hidden. Some people think Saudi Arabia is running out rapidly and hiding the fact. And it's a misnomer in any case. Because much of that oil cannot be extracted in an economically viable manner.

 

[Monsterzuma]

It's useful to discuss peak oil in terms of the peaking of oil of a certain price. 30$* a barrel oil, for example, may well already have peaked (barring further recessionary disruptions). even if the oil production rate rises substantially from where it is now, it may not drive the price back down to that level.

* inflation adjusted

 

[El_Machinae]

Quick question: have proven reserves gone up or down in the last 20 years?

A nearly 20% rise!

but

 

[Ayatollah So]

Cool how they got the "actual" cost of oil in 2014 on that chart

But yeah. If oil production is roughly flat, the price will increase quickly. Because demand isn't going to stay put. Even a Euro-fiasco can only delay the demand crunch a little while.

 

[Narz]

People get almost as delusional as creationists when it comes to wanting to believe in limitless oil.

http://rvanews.com/news/transportation-chief-says-oil-supply-unlimited/55970

It's weird, in any private section job you'd think you'd be sacked or demoted for saying stupid, inane things in public (if you're supposed to be a spokesperson) but probably this guy won't even get a hand slap.

 

[Narz]

Quick question: have proven reserves gone up or down in the last 20 years?

Not exactly an answer to your question but it appears we've hit a production ceiling of sorts.

Stats from an article in Nature magazine.

 

[Integral]

It is rare that I am convinced by a picture, but damn that shifted my priors.

You don't see many right angles in economics.

 

[NedimNapoleon]

The second graph, the dots are arranged like Japan.

 

[Narz]

It is rare that I am convinced by a picture, but damn that shifted my priors.

You don't see many right angles in economics.

Yeah it's pretty scary to me since I first starting thinking about it about five years ago. It's definitely a limiting factor. I tend to fear that both peak oil & climate change (and other environmental feedback) will laugh at our hopes & dreams & expectations & aspirations.

I don't really want it to be so (I've been accused by many at various points of schadenfreude for wishing humanity would curtail it's enthusiasm & plan ahead realistically) but it's quite the opposite. I've also been called a Luddite (which is an ironic insult to bandy about against someone on an Internet forum) but I like my Internet & warm running water.

I just don't know how we're going to be able to maintain all this without a massive shift in the way we do just about everything (and even if so, even with massive change on the political, business & social level things will still be rocky). Seeing as people don't like massive change, especially governments & fatcats, I think we're totally screwed. The fatcats & govt. will try to manage collapse so it is not complete & they can still maintain power but I think they overestimate their abilities & underestimate the extent to which things are going to change once we get past the bumpy plateau onto the decline (just in time for the effects of climate change to start heating up and with population continuing to climb).

The second graph, the dots are arranged like Japan.

On a lighter note, yes they are.

 

[tokala]

A nearly 20% rise!

One should pay attention to the fact that more than 50% of "proven" reserves comes from middle eastern states, where no external auditing of their reserve data takes place.

I.e. they could just pull any numbers they like out of their rear ends, and they have done so in the past; those jumps in the 80s appear not to have any economic or geologic base.

 

[Mongoloid Cow]

One should pay attention to the fact that more than 50% of "proven" reserves comes from middle eastern states, where no external auditing of their reserve data takes place.

I.e. they could just pull any numbers they like out of their rear ends, and they have done so in the past; those jumps in the 80s appear not to have any economic or geologic base.

Essentially, they estimated how much they had, and then doubled it. Most of the Middle East still uses those numbers.

 

[pi-r8]

A nearly 20% rise!

It's not so simple. There's three sources of uncertainty in estimating oil reserves

1) The proven reserves are supposed to be "extractable under existing economic and political conditions" so you have different estimates of what's economical. Increasing the price of oil should automatically increase the reserves somewhat.
2) There's the different types of oil, which may or may not be considered "oil" depending on the source
3) Certain countries (Saudi Arabia in particular) might lie about their reserves for strategic reasons

So I think you have to take any world reserve estimates with a HUGE grain of salt. Actual production is a lot more clear-cut.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Can Hydrogen push me 240 kph? I dont think so.

How fast did those Appollo astronauts go when they set the world speed record?

 

[El_Machinae]

One should pay attention to the fact that more than 50% of "proven" reserves comes from middle eastern states, where no external auditing of their reserve data takes place.

I.e. they could just pull any numbers they like out of their rear ends, and they have done so in the past; those jumps in the 80s appear not to have any economic or geologic base.

There's more than that. Their treaties state that their yearly sales are based on their reserves (higher reserves means they can have higher sales). Since they're being paid nearly $80 (profit) per barrel right now, each Kingdom is incentivised to fudge their reserve numbers.

 

[magellenproject]

Yes indeed lets talk about Oil.

Oil exists because it gives people control over another Human being in the long run.
This is just as true in NK as it is un the US, and the UK, and the rest of the world.

Big oil Cartels, that have the same evil people in power who have been plotting our demise since antiquity, who also control Jim Sung Un, and Barrack obama like puppets.
All control is Evil.
All Authority is Evil.
And if everyone stops sucking up to everyone else, we can have what we all desperately need.
A world for everyone, set for each the way they want it.

Profit and Tax both=Control of people, by State AND Corporation.
The same people who set up Taxes on petrol are the same people who Tax the Sale, Consumption, and production of it.
The only way we can completely Annialate all forms of Authority, is by Tapping into energies that never run out and run our cars. Or Just walk everywhere.

I walk from Winersh to Reading, and Despite what all the Corporate/State Propoganda says I didn't die of exhaustion. I wonder if they'll kill me when I figure out I can walk from Bracknell to Reading without the need to pay a Fascist money to take me by Public Transport, that would be free if it weren't for another type of Fascist somewhere.

 

[magellenproject]

Oh....GOD....I hate my country.

My nations people are a bunch of conformist Sheep.


Moderator Action: Trolling.
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I was reading in a book called ground control, and you guys actually stood up against the Corporations take over of public space.
I.E. B.I.D Buisiness improvement District.

I have ironically been suckered into the propaganda I get over here, about the US letting the Corporations take over public space.
But according to this book I was reading, there was fierce uproar about the B.I.D's in the US.
So I appologize, about the innacuracies of my above post.
I cant know everything, and seeing as the Communist Lennist BBC used to fill my head with crap,(Untill I cancelled my TV licence and through thr RF cable out the <snip> window) then its definately not my fault.
I have decided that I never going to get my informaiton from a paper, the internet, or the TV ever again.
The only way to not get in the Disseased UK, is to read a Degree Level text book from cambridge.
UK people are so unbelievably apathetic, i could snap they're arms of, mail them to Thailand, and they wouldn't complain.

Moderator Action: Inappropriate language removed.
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[Narz]

The bumpy plateau bumps along.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46446824/ns/business-oil_and_energy/#.T0QTNfXnte4

 

[Monsterzuma]

Citigroup Research Note: North Dakota Shale Oil 'Buries' Peak Oil Hypothesis.

at what oil price does this supply emerge?