LotR10: Scouting Sid

[Gothmog]

I don't think Uskudar is costal.

I don't know how bombers are going to reach Uskudar unless I am missing something. Don't they have a range of about 8 still?

Either way it sounds like you are really talking about a lot of bombers. Any estimates? then we need troops and navy too... that will take a long time.

I must admit that I did not know that bombers had lethal land bombard.

I am also unsure about the utility of the pillage/plant trees plan (though it would be great if we could use bombers for pillaging of course). We are going to have to hold Uskudar for long enough for the bulk of available Ottoman forces to reach us in any case. The number of explorers we would have to transport could just as easilly be infantry used for defence/flip protection IMO. We could bring along a few arti for pillaging from the safety of Uskudar though.

 

[Arathorn]

Bombers range has been hugely increased -- 4fold or 6fold or something like that. Uskudar, I *think*, will be out of range of our current cities, but it will be a very near thing. We can build some bombers and test that out before we need to commit, however.

I was averaging about 0.7 damage/bomber against infantry fortified in cities. Figure 4 infantry with 4 hps each is 16 hps and that's a mere 23 bombers. Add another 6 for a tank. Figure another 50% if they have mech infantry. 30-40some bombers should be sufficient, and maybe even overkill. You actually need fewer bombers than artillery, often.

We'll want 5 or so fighters to help defend Uskudar from AI bombings. And then as many infantry as we can park there. For a navy, all we need are transports for the initial landing party. 10 transports, 50 infantry, 10 artillery.

Total needs:
50 bombers -- play it very safe with these
10 transports
50 infantry
10 artillery
and probably 13 carriers (the hard part, IMO)

120 troops, with the transports and troops on them needing to be amassed early. 15 turns?

The goal with pillaging is to make Ottoman troops spend one turn in range of our artillery/bombers before attacking (no ride in and attack). Dinging them and sending them home will be huge, but if they can send all their troops against us, we're FUBAR. But, I think you're right that planting trees is probably a non-option.

Arathorn

 

[Speaker]

We also have the army remember. Hopefully that can defer the Ottomans from attacking. If the Portuguese are still alive, we may want to declare war on them so we can mobilize to build the troops faster. Or the Russians if that will be easier. This could be a big help.

 

[Arathorn]

The more I think about range and a few other things, I think a city in ex-Russia (near Moscow?) or Azteca (Tlat...) would be inordinately helpful in a number of ways. I'd have a settler standing by on a ship ASAP, just in case a spot opens up. Depending on how badly the Aztecs are hurting, I might consider a war purely for Tlaxcala, if we think we have a prayer of getting it and not losing much, if anything, on our mainland. I don't see that happening, however.

Arathorn

 

[Gothmog]

Yeah, I thought of the advantages of mobilizing too. But we will need votes and the Aztec will be our opponent. We need votes we can buy.

I don't think the Aztec are hurting at all atm but we'll see.

I will have a settler ready to ship to Moscow, though we currently don't have any transports nor any in production (though I already swapped Amsterdam from wealth to transport due in 2).

 

[T-hawk]

Any chance of declaring war on the Ottomans 6-8 turns before you plan to capture the city? Then capture it and make peace on the same turn, no need to defend it against anything...

 

[Skyfish]

Nice idea from T-Hawk here thanks, we will have to defend our lands for 6 to 8 turns *anyway*...
There's a galleon available (albeit a bit far) to bring a settler in ex-Russia or ex-Azteca like I suggested in my report

120 troops, with the transports and troops on them needing to be amassed early. 15 turns?

U mean that we would need 15 turns to build those 120 units ?
I believe we need way more than that...

 

[Speaker]

Took a peek at the save file. Uskudar is not coastal. It is located one tile from the coast. Total placement, but it works out well for Osman in the end.

Here is our relationship to Uskudar. Leerdam is our closest city, as shown in the top right corner. The shaded region is the operational range of bombers (10 tiles).

Here is the full operational range with Uskudar at the center.

 

[Skyfish]

Well Portugal is weak and easily takeable

 

[Speaker]

I think T-Hawk's idea has a lot of merit. We could get a RoP with the Aztecs and keep our ships near Tenochtitlan while at war with the Ottomans for 6-8 turns. We can send basically all our units to war because the Ottomans can't hit us for at least a few turns, and we can be mobilized and cranking out more troops to protect our mainland.

In the interim, we should send a ship with a settler, worker, and some defense as soon as possible in case a space opens up where we could then make an airstrip (if possible to save money on rushing an airport), to airlift units in for the battle. This could make our war preparations much easier.

 

[Reagan]

If the poaching settler idea doesn't work in time, why not go take one of Portugal's cities? If we can crank enough carriers, do we even need to worry about taking a foreign city? Getting a RoP with the Aztecs will do the trick.

 

[Gothmog]

Yeah, I didn't think the bombers would be able to reach. It's a long way.

So we are going to bank on a space opening up for a city/airstrip?

I haven't noticed any major losses by Russia lately so...

In terms of the UN the Aztec will be our best bet to declare on (Otto most likely wont vote for us, heh), if we attack Portugal too who will vote for us? Spain and the Mongols? But of course the Aztec would probably put up a real fight.

If we declare war on Otto early we will need extra navy to defend against an Ottoman navy of unknown strength (actually I haven't checked to see if they have Oil).

I'll be able to check it out tonight, think it over and report back. I probably wont have time to play until tomorrow morning.

 

[Speaker]

You can see the Ottoman oil a few tiles below Novgorod.

 

[Gothmog]

I just looked things over... Wow I didn't realize that Russia was so close to gone. They only have Orenburg (north of Yakutsk) and Krasnoyarsk left, there are some open spaces that could be settled - 2 tiles NE of Moscow for example - but still nothing in range of Uskudar. Even if Otto razes Tlaxcala the borders will just fill in as the Aztec capital of Tenochititlan is just to the SE and you can see that its borders are beyond Tlaxcala. So the only way we will get a position for bombing is if the Aztecs somehow raze one of the old Russian cities. I am guessing most of you knew this already, but I thought I'd lay it out anyway. I will move our Galley into position right away, but it will take it a bit to get there as it is sleeping in Haarlem atm. This option is not high probability IMO.

According to the civolopedia bombers can be stationed on Carriers, but only 4 per so that would be a huge fleet... 10 carriers at minimum @ 180 shields per Carrier and 100 shields per bomber.

 

[Arathorn]

My main concern with declaring war on the Ottomans 6-8 turns before we try to get Uskudar is defending our transports. They'll probably have 50-100 military ships patrolling the waters. And ships in C3C really can move quite a long ways. How in the heck are we suposed to protect our transports of troops? Are we depending on an Aztec RoP then? Sounds kinda scary to me.

Flips will also be a HUGE problem. Uskudar will have tremendous cultural pressure. It will be hard to remove resisters. Even 50+ troops will fall to a flip. It's gonna be tough.

For now, though, try to work into Uskudar's operational range and build up some troops, while hoping, I guess.

Arathorn

 

[Skyfish]

Pre-turn: Fire taxmen in Eindhoven, Hague, Utrecht, and Arnhem, which increases both growth and taxes by working productive tiles whose commerce is multiplied by commercial buildings. Swap an engineer to a clown in Haarlem to stave off a riot. Swap three clowns to useful specialists in Breda (and hire another specialist) and another each in Leiden and Tilburg. Hire three engineers in fully corrupt and pop-maxed Gouda. Fire Denhelder’s engineer and make him work a RR, mined coal mountain, for a gain in both shields and tax money. Lauwersoog swaps from granary (it can’t get any bigger) to bank. We’re now up to 162gpt net income after micromanaging. Then, I swap Hague, Utrecht, and Eindhoven to rifle production in anticipation of our daring future assault on the UN city. We’re going to steal Electronics at some point, so there’s no sense spending 2gpt researching it.

How could I leave our cities in such terrible state ?!??!
I have no idea what happened there, I was messing around with the new specialists everywhere and I uploaded the wrong save
on the server, I am pretty sure the cities were not set up that way the turn before...
My apologies to Reagan, Arathorn and the whole team, and I would totally understand if you'd rather go on with this SG without crappy players like me, it s a very difficult variant and you guys need to be strong on every single turn

 

[Gothmog]

Well, if we get beat we know who to blame!

No, not really. You are an asset to any team Sky and I wouldn't think of going on without you.

Here's my effort.

I check out our deals - Rubber and 198gpt to Hittites done in 5 turns, Iron and 27gpt to portugal done in 2 (hey I forgot to renew this, we might be able to squeze a few gpt for it).

Hittites, Oz, and the Aztec up all visible techs. Russia and Mongols up Ironclads, Communism, and Feudalism.

MM check reveals spotless play by Reagan in that regard.

I swap Amsterdam to transport, Rotterdam to Destroyer, Maastrich to transport (sci->police gets it in 3 vs 4), Eindhoven to Cruiser, Tepexpan to settler. Wake Galleon and move west.

Forest chop gives 0 shields so I plant and chop another square. I'm putting mines where forests have been chopped.

(IT) Hittites move an infantry into Gouda's territory. Spice deal with Aztec runs out and he no longer has any for trade. Krasnoyarsk falls to Otto. Riots ensue, I scroll ahead.

(1) 1455 - I get furs from Izz for 44gpt +WM. Upgrade Galleon to transport @ den Helder.

(IT) I renew silks with Izz for +10 gpt. I sell her Oil for 2570 gold.

(2) 1460 - Sell wines to Hittites for 158+10gpt+WM. I do a safe steal against spain and succede. I decide to take Mass Production as I don't believe we will get an airbase. I send Portugal Refining for WM+12gpt just for the halibut. Everyone is still up all visible techs
MP to Russia for 210+79gpt, to mongols for Ironclads+WM+32gpt+228gold. This was all they both had, they wouldn't give up communism for less than MP+Wine+45gpt+WM+1382 ???

(IT) Hittites call up and we trade TM's. Istanbul completes the internet, Otto definitely has MI now and has likely started the space ship already.

Not much else...

I stopped after 5 becuase that is all I had time for this afternoon and I wanted to check w/the team anyway.

We have enough gold for another safe steal. The transport and a couple destroyers are making their way to the bombing range but I really don't see Otto loosing any cities in former Russian land. I would probably turn them around and have them join the rest of our navy (see below).

As I said before if it were just me I would steal motorized transport, mobilize, and build tanks. We are running out of time and I wouldn't bank on getting an airstrip. If we steal flight and start building bombers that will be our final gambit. We will need many many tanks as Otto will have MI, I've built enough navy for escort already - at this point I would even unload our stuff before declaring on Otto, though I am sure he will demand we leave and get a free round on us anyway. I've built a bunch more Rifles that can be upgraded to infantry and as many transports as I could (I would stop building navy other than transports at this point).

But it's not just me, and I can't say I feel like a tank/infantry force has much of a hope anyway. We would have to rely on a kind RNG and/or Otto being somewhat gassed after being at war with Russia and the Aztecs for so long. He clearly is somewhat gassed as he hasn't been able to destroy Cathy yet, or make any more headway against the Aztec.

So here is the save after 5, sorry it isn't zipped. I have a new cpu and haven't gotten a zip utility on it yet. I'll check later to make sure the file is OK.

http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads6/William_of_the_Dutch.SAV

 

[Arathorn]

Can we swing two Ottoman wars? We need Uskudar. Bombers are our only chance to get the kill ratio we need (30:1 or so). I'm very disappointed we stole anything but Flight. We can probably push and settle our way through old Russia, but only if we have very big stacks of infantry that the Ottomans won't want to attack.

If it were me, I would do most/all of the following in the next 5 turns:
- Disband our old horsemen and swordsmen to save on upkeep costs and because they're essentially worthless
- Steal Flight ASAP -- probably from the Ottomans
- Make a bunch of alliances against the Ottomans, to get Communism (Russia will give this and more) and as much gold as possible (Aztecs will pay 400+)
- Establish our presence with bombers and infantry stacks (why isn't our leader an army by now? Were we ever going to need to rush a small wonder?????????? Have we missed leader chances by keeping him around? An empty army would've been just as good or probably better)
- Build very little besides bombers, infantry and settlers for the next LONG time
- March our way through the Ottomans (if possible) by use of extreme kill ratios through air superiority
- Hope to capture Uskudar before too long

Why are we wondering about the status of the space race? F8 very clearly tells anybody who cares to look that the Ottomans are leading the space race with 2 parts complete. Since Robotics is now required to get, there are still a few techs to go. We have SOME time, but not a whole lot, before we need to get the UN. Probably enough to war twice, if we absolutely need to.

I would give a tank/infantry force a .05% chance of getting Uskudar. I give bombers and a push through Russia over 1%. Anybody have a better plan/idea?

Gothmog, was that an "I'm done, somebody else take it" or a "Here's a break. What's to be done? I still want to play"?

Arathorn

 

[Reagan]

I would totally understand if you'd rather go on with this SG without crappy players like me

Uhhhh . . . yeah. Is January 10 some sort of European equivalent to our April Fool's Day? I hope it is, and that you're joking with us, because you ain't going anywhere, mister! If my notes about micromangement ever seem harsh, I apologize. I have a very direct writing style and sometimes it can leave a bad impression, I guess. The main reason I take note of any changes/vetos I make after inheriting a game are for the benefit of newer/developing players who are reading along with us. It's important for them to see that MMing is still important even in the late stages of the game. Anyway, I apologize again if my notes came across in an unflattering way. You're a good player and there's no need for you to think otherwise.

 

[Reagan]

I'd like to pretty much mirror Arathorn's comments about our end-game strategy. I did a double-take when I read that we didn't steal Flight when we had the chance. We don't have to found an airbase city to take advantage of bombers, although that would be preferable to using carriers. I'm not so sure about disbanding of units, though. Even horses and swords count as flip protection and we may need them if/when we take Uskudar.

Arathorn, we haven't been in a war since our leader arrived (IIRC), so we haven't lost anything by keeping him in reserve. You're right, though, that there's no reason not to form an army with him right now.