Major Hurricane Irene

[Singularity]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

The eyewall of the hurricane is being replaced at the moment, meaning that there's a pretty good chance we'll see it reach category four strength by noon tomorrow GMT.

It's a bit early to tell where it's going, but some of the weather models puts it pretty much over New York City by sunday/monday. Though obviously not as a major hurricane any more due to lower ocean temperatures.

Anway, going to be interesting to see where this one is going. And for now I hope everyone on Bahamas are as safe as they can be.

Edit: Here's NHC's URL for Irene.

 

[Smellincoffee]

I almost wish it would swing left and bring Alabama some rain.

 

[LucyDuke]

New York City? That's heading for Rhode Island! GIMME GIMME

(It'll probably crap out before it gets here. Or go somewhere else. Good weather always be dissin' me.)

 

[Monsterzuma]

any risk to that nuke plant that got the power knocked out of due to the freak earthquake that happened around there earlier?

 

[Labtec600]

any risk to that nuke plant that got the power knocked out of due to the freak earthquake that happened around there earlier?

It's not going to hit there.

 

[Singularity]

New York City? That's heading for Rhode Island! GIMME GIMME

(It'll probably crap out before it gets here. Or go somewhere else. Good weather always be dissin' me.)

The NHC track is an estimate based upon various international models of calculating weather. GFDL(Geophysical Fluid Dynamical model), HWRF(Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model) and ECMWF(European Centre for Wedium Weather Forecast model) predicts that it will be(maximum) between a category 2 and 3 over Long Island by the end of the weekend.

But, those are the extreme western track models. The NHC has a lot of models that dictate the median track that we see in their forecast.

 

[Labtec600]

I guess XTRP is either horrible at tracking or the best...

 

[Singularity]

I guess XTRP is either horrible at tracking or the best...

That's not a model, it's an extrapolated track. Meaning if current direction and speed is unchanging - that's where it's going to end.

 

[LucyDuke]

I realize that... you don't have to dog like the weather does.

 

[Singularity]

I realize that... you don't have to dog like the weather does.

Sorry I'm a bit nerdy when it comes to these things and tend to geek out.

Another thing that might complicate things for any storm surges is the fact that we have a new moon on monday. Meaning the storm surge will gain a benefit from the added tides around this time of the month. Here's a flood chart for Long Island if various strength hurricanes should hit it traveling in a NW direction. http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

For the past few years, in late August we got a hurricane in which the following would ALWAYS happen:
a) The stores will run out of bread the day before.
b) The power will go out for a few hours.
c) Several signs and branches around town blow down.
d) The neighbors across the street will leave their clothes on the line and they'll be all over the street.

I imagine this'll be the one.

 

[LucyDuke]

Our stores run out of milk, too.

I'm hoping it'll be something I can go out and enjoy.

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

Yeah. But I'm serious about the neighbors leaving their clothes on the line. You'd think they'd learn by now....

 

[emzie]

Lucy, have room on your couch? This seems AWESOME.

 

[GhostWriter16]

I really hope this doesn't hit Eastern LI. There's always a flood risk with those things.

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

A warning to people, please don't go on a beach because a wave might pull you into the water and you'll drown. This is another thing that happens every year in N.S. (I can't remember how many drowned compared to rescued but I think a few died)

 

[Dreadnought]

Move in day for my dorm is on Sunday.

Well, at this rate, it won't be!

 

[KaiserElectric]

I live in South Jersey, and I'm a little freaked out right now.

Dreadnought, I also start college the next day.

 

[Linkman226]

Damn it I can't believe it's heading for Long Island

 

[LucyDuke]

Lucy, have room on your couch? This seems AWESOME.

Yeah, and I have an awesome porch for storm-watchin'. If it's good, but not too good, I might head down to my aunt's house in south county or my dad's house across the bay.