Meanwhile in Libya...

[MobBoss]

My 5 bucks says Gaddafi doesn't live to see the first day of spring.

Its a virtual gurantee that any Libyan terrorist/dictator given only 3 months to live, will assuredly live at least 12x that, if not more.

 

[SG-17]

That's like in September. I'd give him a week, tops.

( )

Libya is north of the Equator, so spring there starts on March 20th.

 

[Tani Coyote]

On the interview: Any doubt Qadaffi's insanity has surely been disspelled. He is out of touch with reality. I predict he'll be dead within a year. That or in hiding with no power. He is rapidly falling out of favor with the outside world as quickly as his own people.

---

On the UN decision: I wouldn't be surprised if the US honors its tradition of ignoring the UN's official decision if it doesn't agree with us.

 

[Yeekim]

Libya has roughly the HDI of Uruguay, it has a long way to go to become "a Somalia" or " an Afghanistan".

One generation?
They say Afghanistan used to be pretty cool in 70-s.

 

[innonimatu]

Anyway, a comment on all the people talking about a supposed need for a "no-fly zone": the real humanitarian crisis is happening in the roads towards the borders with Egypt and Tunisia, on the borders, and in Tripoli's airport: migrant workers from poor (powerless) countries in Africa and Asia, who worked to do much of the industrial and infrastructure development in Libya recently, are starving, while the libyans squabble over who runs the country. But hey, perhaps they can be dismissed as if they were the "black mercenaries" hired by Qaddafi?

The airport is open, the tunisian and egyptian authorities are calling for help with supporting the refugees.. and what do western governments do? Evacuate their own citizens and pretend to discuss a "no-fly zone". The rest can be damned. Should be damned? Libya as a "vaccine" against instability elsewhere?

And about the political situation in Libya, i meant it when I asked who knows how the situation started. And what's going on, btw. We keep hearing about alleged massacres, alleged new governments, alleged marches on the capital, and yet the situations seems frozen and hard evidence for any of this is not forthcoming.
It's not an irrelevant question, knowing the answer would help establish the character of the conflict and guess what's to come. I stand by my guess: another Somalia.

 

[Tee Kay]

Libya is north of the Equator, so spring there starts on March 20th.

I like to think you missed the joke.

And about the political situation in Libya, i meant it when I asked who knows how the situation started. And what's going on, btw. We keep hearing about alleged massacres, alleged new governments, alleged marches on the capital, and yet the situations seems frozen and hard evidence for any of this is not forthcoming.

The lack of concrete information about the situation on the ground and the motivations of different factions also characterizes the situation in Egypt as well.

All of the countries facing the protests at the moment could potentially become Somalias.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I like to think you missed the joke.

I think he got the joke. Otherwise he wouldn't have specified that Libya is at the North of the equator... Mr from down under.

 

[Cutlass]

There's probably a number of reasons a higher HDI could translate into stronger protests.

You have to see the possibility of better to fight for it.

 

[innonimatu]

The lack of concrete information about the situation on the ground and the motivations of different factions also characterizes the situation in Egypt as well.

Sorry, I don't think so. I've made some effort to get direct reports from journalists in the ground, and found very little. This worries me, as most news shaping public opinion come from anonymous sources. Too easy no manipulate.
I mean, we have no doubt that Qaddafi lost the plot, at least those speeches are not in doubt. But why did so many people risk civil war (everything, up to their lives, is at stake) in a country which was relatively rich and hadn't even suffered the energy and food price shock others did? What ignited the civil war? There's lots of "news", up to "Qaddafi bombed peaceful protesters", but no evidence of how things really went. The news about casualties in the portions of the country which slipped out of government control also do not make sense: there are nearly as many military and "mercenary" claimed deaths as those of "civilian protesters" - it doesn't match the idea of an escalation of government repression and fighting.

All of the countries facing the protests at the moment could potentially become Somalias.

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that Libya has two things against it which were not present in the other countries: lack of any (any at all!) policy alternative to the current government (we know they're against Qaddafi, but what do all the different rebel groups want in his place? Do they know?), and interest abroad in having the whole thing turn into a bloodbath.
The first leads me to suspect that the civil war will degenerate into warlordism. The second doesn't imply that the war was somehow planned or incited from elsewhere, but that no one will make real efforts to prevent it. Perhaps the libyans will sort thinks out quickly, but I'm getting very pessimistic.

 

[r16]

the apparent spinal nonexistance (at least as of yesterday) is due to the next US Administration getting wary of international institutions - one can surely remember the truckborne chemical labs - and the timetable sure allows the Arabian Liberators to fail immensely so that the next "crusade" will not be a crusade but a deliverance ... That is why the Arabian Liberators are so confused . So much talk of support and only words , just words . Take Libya , they have 40 000 men from an army of 45 000 , have cities , the media and they are soooo influenced by airpower . BBC crew filmed non existent "tayyare" [plane] bombing the empty desert and of course there was the rebel pilot right on the spot who claimed they could do the job on the ground if there was aircover . And there was the light plane crushed by the tank and lotta thanks to Al -Jazeraa for showing that base of depilated decrepit bunch of Mig-27s , proving there is nothing to be afraid of . Lest Americans fall into self imposed doubts because they field the "subpar" Hornet , Al Jazeera has also been showing Tomcat footage as if it is still there , not retired some years ago , but then they were doing it at N.Korean crisis too .The organized Tomcat force is an enemy of United States . Awright if driving their tanks across Libya to topple Kaddafi is so risk prone , let them drive into Eygpt , sail to Tunisia and come in from the back door . They are liberators , aren't they ? That is why East Libya should stop exporting oil , totally . For public relations , West should be spared of supporting oil rich regions , let the fight be solely for freedom . Would drive oil prices up , contrary to desires but S.Arabia will cover the fall . The fun it would be if S.Arabia gets shut down , would a barrel of oil be 2000 dollars ?. Replacing one tribe with one or two others is not democracy . Nobody is stopping Libyans from fighting , right ?

then there is mention of the impending humanitarian catastrophe and on BBC there was much mumbo jumbo about the impossibility of aiding millions if it came to the shove because , let me see , there are "others" who fail to see the legitimacy issue . The presence of others did not stop the Live-Aid concerts and channeling of the funds to leading liberators for easy embezzlement , good connections on the ground are always good afterall . As such the cost of intelligence operatives embedded in NGOs has been doubled , the days of philantrophy must indeed be over . Does because can . Does because should have done long ago .


unrelated to any substance mentioned here it must be said about the gull grey insignia white contraption ; we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel .

 

[Bad Player]

Anyway, a comment on all the people talking about a supposed need for a "no-fly zone": the real humanitarian crisis is happening in the roads towards the borders with Egypt and Tunisia, on the borders, and in Tripoli's airport: migrant workers from poor (powerless) countries in Africa and Asia, who worked to do much of the industrial and infrastructure development in Libya recently, are starving, while the libyans squabble over who runs the country. But hey, perhaps they can be dismissed as if they were the "black mercenaries" hired by Qaddafi?

The airport is open, the tunisian and egyptian authorities are calling for help with supporting the refugees.. and what do western governments do? Evacuate their own citizens and pretend to discuss a "no-fly zone". The rest can be damned. Should be damned? Libya as a "vaccine" against instability elsewhere?

And about the political situation in Libya, i meant it when I asked who knows how the situation started. And what's going on, btw. We keep hearing about alleged massacres, alleged new governments, alleged marches on the capital, and yet the situations seems frozen and hard evidence for any of this is not forthcoming.
It's not an irrelevant question, knowing the answer would help establish the character of the conflict and guess what's to come. I stand by my guess: another Somalia.

I wouldn't dismiss what happened to the Libyans under Gadaffi like that... If Libya becomes stable and sustainable then that would presumably be good for everyone, right?

 

[innonimatu]

The presence of others did not stop the Live-Aid concerts and channeling of the funds to leading liberators for easy embezzlement , good connections on the ground are always good afterall .

The live-aid concerts "for the starving ethiopians"? I thought that had been used for buying weapons for the rebels? Or at least it was what that british journalist who investigated that a few years ago seems to have discovered.

 

[Silurian]

The BBC failed here

From AOL

The BBC has been forced to issue an apology for alleging in a succession of reports that millions of dollars raised by the 1985 Live Aid concerts were used to buy arms, instead of feeding the victims of famine in Ethiopia. The British broadcaster said sorry to Irish rocker Bob Geldof, one of the event's organizers, who said he hoped that the apology would help to repair some of the "appalling damage" caused by the claims.

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...fT4vhB&usg=AFQjCNEFPL_7kd3nvWAez1V_jLRZXFUxvg

 

[innonimatu]

The BBC failed here

From AOL

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...fT4vhB&usg=AFQjCNEFPL_7kd3nvWAez1V_jLRZXFUxvg

Thanks for the update, I didn't knew about that correction.

 

[Eat_Up_Martha]

I didn't get all the way through the other threads, so if this is redundant just ignore me...

The establishment of a no-fly zone necessitates ground strikes, do you think that the Western governments (particularly the US and UK) are really interested in what I'd imagine would result in another war?

 

[emzie]

I didn't get all the way through the other threads, so if this is redundant just ignore me...

The establishment of a no-fly zone necessitates ground strikes, do you think that the Western governments (particularly the US and UK) are really interested in what I'd imagine would result in another war?

I think everyone advocating a no-fly zone understands this. It's been done before with Iraq, with occasional strikes against SAM sites.

But it may be moot. I haven't seen much to say air strikes have continued. If Gaddafi isn't bombing his people, the only thing a no-fly zone could do is stop mercenaries being flown in -- might be too late to make a difference in regards to them.

 

[Silurian]

It looks like some airstrikes are happening but not a large number and a lot seem to be aimed at arms dumps. Obviously if the arms dumps that the rebels have captured are then destroyed it will be easier for Gaddafi to carry out more counter attacks.

From the BBC

The Libyan oil terminal town of Brega has been targeted with air strikes, sources in the town said.

The strikes come a day after clashes between rebels and government troops in the town in which 14 people died.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/int/news/-/news/world-africa-12632482

And three Dutch marines have been captured whilst trying to rescue people.

Talks are under way to free three Dutch marines captured in Libya as they tried to evacuate foreign citizens, the Netherlands' defence ministry says.

The three landed by helicopter near the port of Sirte on Sunday, flying in from the Dutch warship Tromp, which is anchored off the Libyan coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/int/news/-/news/world-europe-12633415

 

[Tani Coyote]

CNN says oil's risen 4 cents in one day alone.

We really need to put a lid on this before an oil-driven economy starts to hurt us.

Hopefully this will incentivise green energy though. Or not. We'll just shift the debate to green vs. tapping our own reserves.

---

2 ships have also slipped through the Suez Canal and are en route to Libya to deliver humanitarian aid.

...anybody think Qadaffi's crazy enough to order a strike on the ships? If he does, this will become Obama's war and will boost his approval sharply. (Though I hear it's on the rise in all this chaos)

 

[Silurian]

The canal is on the east of Egypt.

I do not think he is going to fly across Egyptian air defences to bomb a ship carrying food etc.

The Egyptians could well invade Libya then.

 

[Tani Coyote]

The canal is on the east of Egypt.

I do not think he is going to fly across Egyptian air defences to bomb a ship carrying food etc.

The Egyptians could well invade Libya then.

Well you know, I meant, AFTER they are off Libya's coast...