Meanwhile in Libya...

[pob]

innonimatu: you are right in saying it is difficult to get concrete reports about what is going on, and it is important to remember there will be western media bias against Gaddafi.

Libya is relatively well off, so the uprising is not really connected to the other arab protests like the media is presenting. The origin of the protests against Gaddafi probably stem from the Abu Salim prison massacre in 1996 where 1270 prisoners were killed.

The tipping point which turned these protests into a major upising (and why it became so suddenly violent) was the defection of the special forces commander Abdel Fattah Younes on February 19th.

 

[Aegis]

China and Russia blocked a no-fly zone, but I think they'll end up coming around. Both were in favour of the heavy sanctions and both supported a clause to invoke a 2005 resolution that'd cover a no-fly zone.

Considering both nation's propensity for killing their own citizenry, can anyone really be surprised

 

[J-man]

It looks rather bad for those navy crewman.....

Perhaps it's too soon to tell but it seems that our army screwed this operation up very effectively.

 

[Oishi]

The U.S. should intervene.

 

[r16]

a quickie on the airpower issue . Now that many of the reported 32 tribes of Libya were with the democratic tsunami; one presumes the two years of US training of the select Libyan Army units was not in vain. It was merely a question of time , from the Western point of view , that the rest would follow suit .It was the requirements of the manliness and tribal deterrence that needed something the size of a sledgehammer to justify the endgame. Giving in not to the fellow Libyan but the overwhelming force . When frowning of the West was not enough someting extra ie this talk of the no-fly zone was brought up . Hence the stories of aerial devastation , which even Al Jazeera itself quietly retracted . Any strafing attack on demonstration would produce casualties , of which easily half might well be the police and security services .

starting Wednesday it is obvious there are planes in the air and quickly the shoulder launched SAMs were on show on Al-Jazeera; as a deterrence for the guys who must be fearing the Stinger/Grail types immensely . Something you wouldn't see the day before as it doesn't exactly match with the image of hapless undefended cities . One would expect Bingazi to match Hanoi in SAM density , and qualified against Stealth too . But then this game does not need much basis in reality . The dumber Libyan tribes must be warned by the majestic all conquering Western air so that they can dump Kaddafi . So that Algeria can fall next , before April . Everybody is ankle deep for influence to one end or the other and there are small scale skirmishes that grow into huge terrible affairs for those who unfortunately lose their beloved . This is how compromises are actually reached in real life . Hopefully a quick and lasting one ; those who bring personal honour into governence will understand that there can be no retreat from what has been promised and agreed . Irregardless of whom stands standing in the end the west would turn purple by the actual results , a true relief instead of a reshuffling for better contracts , is what was related to Mübarek before he woved the blood of Martyrs of the Tahrir Square would not be wasted - to a chorus of Western laughter . A reminder to the Arab leaders not yet engaged . Indeed the momentum has to be broken as the tsunami will fight , say , to the last Libyan - yet the puppetmasters will be fully in charge by 2013 , preempting them now is a "smart" move , remove your problems before the public "gets" itchy . Transform and watch the big fun from sidelines , instead of getting involved . And it doesn't fall on Amr Musa to decide whether there should be tests on whether the new generation of TI seekers , thermal imagining ı mean , can perform adequately against modern aircraft , say of F-16 type .

won't mean much to those in the current East Libya . They have the smell of victory , believing the West will fight , bleed and die for them , or at least for their oil . Their supporters have been on the air with dire speculations on how rising cost of fuel drives up the cost of food . There are all kinds of confidence in Washington's managerial skills that they would reap a windfall with higher prices and manage another financial meltdown , which then would break the American food monopoly . Maybe it is the information war theory to be blamed or the feeling the West can not resist emotions in the end . So in Bingazi they are playing for the crowds . Kaddafi is giving another of his speeches and the screen is divided , a jubilant lot in Bingazi is waving a paper that says Kaddafi is "lieing" , to be quickly replaced by another that says Kaddafi is "lying" . Jackie Rowland of Al Jazeera , according to hearsay , is the one to see it . And the third paper to appear before the camera talks of the "pill popping Hitler " that "can't just stop. " , " Keep on rambling " , kind of phrases above my level of English . A spelling bee indeed but still less annoying when compared to many . We will accept Arabic is amenable to calligraphy and a gift to write eligibly can be found anywhere . That surely will be ri-posted by Christine Amanpour's war but one must avoid the degeneration of this thread into a discussion of whom the Deny Flight was actually covering .

 

[onedreamer]

Sorry, I don't think so. I've made some effort to get direct reports from journalists in the ground, and found very little. This worries me, as most news shaping public opinion come from anonymous sources. Too easy no manipulate.

First consider the fact that Libya is a full dictatorship, it isn't a disguised one like in Egypt and Tunisia. Second you haven't made enough efforts it seems, there are direct reports, videos of executions and whatnot that keep us informed on the situation as good as we can be, considering again that there is a civil war going on and that there is a regime, it isn't a poker match at the casino with cameras and TV streaming minute by minute.

 

[onedreamer]

Considering both nation's propensity for killing their own citizenry, can anyone really be surprised

rebellions in those countries are mostly ethnic, your comparison is way off. The USA also have had a good propension in killing ethnic minorities in America, and the same goes for Europe, Africa and the rest of Asia.

 

[Tee Kay]

First consider the fact that Libya is a full dictatorship, it isn't a disguised one like in Egypt and Tunisia.

Officially, it's a Jamahiriya. Indeed, "Libya is the only democracy on Earth" - Muammar al-Gaddafi

 

[Oishi]

Someone, anyone, save these people.

Spoiler :

9:30am

Ahmed, a resident of Az Zawiyah speaks to Al Jazeera ont he phone from the middle of the ongoing battle. Shouting to be heard over the sound of artillery and small arms fire, he tells us:

There is heavy bombing of the city by tanks and heavy weapons and mortars - the rebels are struggling to resist with very primitive means. They [invading forces] have no mercy and are very brutal. There is a large number of injured and a lot of people killed on the streets.

There is no mercy to civilians. The tanks belonging to to the regime are attacking everything indiscriminately and we have no means of defending ourselves.

There is a very tragic situation happening right now. It's a very serious situation. We were expecting the world to intervene, but they have let us down. Shelling is now coming in from all sides.

They are shooting at the Libyan citizens and we have made up our mid that we will die here. I am really sorry, we are in the middle of a battle and the shelling is very heavy - the [phone line] could break at any moment.

We have taken prisoners out of two vehicles, and we are treating them with respect. But they are shelling us, they are kiling us.

Where is the United Nations or the Arab League or the international community who have spoken about our rights or protecting us? I don't think they meant what they have said.

I am in the middle of Martyrs' Square, and we are conducting a battle. The tanks have surrounded us and they are shelling all the buildings - whether they are residential or business properties. The shelling and destruction is indiscriminate and the civilians are taking shelter in the buildings surrouding the square - but they have not given up yet.

All parts of society - all parts - whether they are professionals and farmers - are all together, supporting each other, hoping that they will be able to survive.

But it is violent, it is indiscriminate - and the number of dead and injured? I cannot count it yet. We need the world here, we need them to intervene - words are not enough. It's not a matter of oil and gas that you need you of our country - it is human lives and blood being shed - right now.

 

[innonimatu]

Regarding that last "plea for help", I am as inclined to believe it to be a true report as I would the claims by that "anonymous girl" ( who turned out to be the daughter of the ambassador of Kuwait in Washington) about iraqi soldiers killing babies in incubators in 1991. It's a civil war and both sides are supposed to be shooting around and trying to capture territory - from their own reports. There's no "victims", no "good side" worth supporting. For example, about Az Zawiyah there was a report in BBC that the rebels were the ones with tanks and heavy artillery...

For a civil war, the action has also been pathetic so far, also from both sides. Either that or no evidence is filtering out. But in a place were rebels allegedly have still-operational phone lines to talk to Al Jazeera, and in a world where mobile phones with cameras are ubiquitous (yes, even in Libya), I absolutely will not believe in any allegations, from any side, without images from multiple sources. And there are no images of any serious fighting going on. For example, AFP today reported that pr-Qaddafi troops staged a "violent assault" on Bin Jawad which recaptured it and left two (!) people dead. I guess that 20 dead would have been reported as "WW3 broke out" or something...

I can't find out which side started shooting first, or what really moves either side in this bizarre civil war. I suspect that some people there received foreign pledges of assistance which will turn out to be lies, just because something like a civil war is useful to dampen "revolutionary feeling" elsewhere. Things like these "diplomats":

An eight-strong British diplomatic team who were detained near the rebel stronghold of Benghazi have been freed. The team, thought to include six SAS members, was found carrying guns, explosives and passports from four countries. It had reportedly been trying to put UK diplomats in touch with the rebel leadership

just leave me more convinced that the libyans are screwed, set to be cannon-fodder. But it was the libyans' choice to start it, it's up to them to finish it. In the meanwhile, those speculating on higher oil prices re making a killing...

 

[Princeps]

one of the reasons why khaddafy hasn't been able to bomb his people with the ferocity that would reflect his insane rhetoric, is the sandstorms which deprive the airforces of visibility.

All in all, this has seemed to be a very hopeful affair: the rebels have made enormous progress with such little casualties.

And libya isn't Egypt. Libya is a large country with only roughly five million people, which is bound to slow down warfare simply due to distances involved.

 

[BasketCase]

Why doesn't the UN activate the no-fly zone right now????

Because U.S. intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last ten years has made the entire world terrified of shooting wars. The UN is too scared to send military of any kind to mess with another nation.

 

[r16]

propaganda is still the major part . Now the satellite channels apparently opened websites where crimes against humanity could be shown and they don't have enough material to make a point . Al Jazeera blames lack of "media" on behalf of the rebels , one can say only "Really?" Rebels have only their cellphones and they get confiscated . Whatever . Unlucky for the new guys , had it been Serbians , the rape VHS cassettes would have been mailed out . Similarly the British expertise is on the ground with a diplomat and 8 SAS members "captured" . [While the following is out of date by a day atleast , let me keep it here ] 9 easily beats the 3 Dutch Navy helicopter crew so that the Greenflag guys can not ransom the EU and their presence can be blamed on the Tricolor guys . Just keep off the net will you , as your location is bound to be the HQ or something , if some Paweway arrives down the basement , the Bingazi people will really dislike you . Since the rebellion already seems to turn the bend out to Sirte , London must be confident that this won't turn to be a rehash of Rommel versus the whole bunch of the 8th Army ... ( Never minding RN has collected the guys with a tricolor flying . ı would suppose the tricolor had a star-crescent combo in the middle but apparently it is not that popular with the nation builders)

making a return to the airpower issue it is on-off-on , continiously . First it is a threat so that there can be a no-fly zone and the no-fly zone is a piece of cake because the Libyans miss by the mile . Then something cooks off and we have the Libyan on his first day behind the sights and he shoots down a jet with a twin gun weapon of which one barrel is inoperative , so that the people on the frontlines will not jump onto their pickup trucks and go home . Then it is apparently an air attack . What happened , are there evil commie advisors out there who figured that if Libyans aimed one mile off they would hit alright ? Rebels would be better off to understand that had it been Rome instead of Bingazi , the guys would have risked a high speed ARM . Instead of sitting and enjoying the night . And the experts never give up . No fly zone is not combat but an intervention . So jamming Greenflag comms is not taking sides and shooting down planes that fly in the no fly zone would not be combat .And airmen should be advised that their goverments do not consider them to be military anymore . No problem , Geneva conventions would still apply . As if that airbreathing thin' that made a bang in Trablus for the second time were not ____ . And of course ı ain't bein original to say that . US drags his feet and UK/ France are jumping and shouting for action . Sidekicks to the bully kinda . Come on people don't wait for the lousy Uncle Sam , there are 100 jets out there waiting there to be shot down , Rafales or Typhoons would sell like hot cakes with a couple of aces on the type ... And a particular TV channel keeps showing the best intervention thing : an Hawkeye on the deck , that will "see". Maybe there should be overflights to assist seeing so that the sight would be irreversible , who knows ? But then the Uncle doesn't want big mess now , the jets get tired flying and obviously they are needed to conduct no fly zones against THK to prevent us bombing Northern Iraq outta whim .

 

[ArneHD]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/07/sas-mi6-released-libya-rebels

Short version: SAS and MI6 people were captured by Libyan rebel forces, released when the UK said that they were not spies.

It seems that the West IS trying to do something without using overt military force, which is probably the correct way to go about it.

 

[onedreamer]

Regarding that last "plea for help", I am as inclined to believe it to be a true report as I would the claims by that "anonymous girl" ( who turned out to be the daughter of the ambassador of Kuwait in Washington) about iraqi soldiers killing babies in incubators in 1991. It's a civil war and both sides are supposed to be shooting around and trying to capture territory - from their own reports. There's no "victims", no "good side" worth supporting. For example, about Az Zawiyah there was a report in BBC that the rebels were the ones with tanks and heavy artillery...

For a civil war, the action has also been pathetic so far, also from both sides. Either that or no evidence is filtering out. But in a place were rebels allegedly have still-operational phone lines to talk to Al Jazeera, and in a world where mobile phones with cameras are ubiquitous (yes, even in Libya), I absolutely will not believe in any allegations, from any side, without images from multiple sources. And there are no images of any serious fighting going on. For example, AFP today reported that pr-Qaddafi troops staged a "violent assault" on Bin Jawad which recaptured it and left two (!) people dead. I guess that 20 dead would have been reported as "WW3 broke out" or something...

I can't find out which side started shooting first, or what really moves either side in this bizarre civil war. I suspect that some people there received foreign pledges of assistance which will turn out to be lies, just because something like a civil war is useful to dampen "revolutionary feeling" elsewhere. Things like these "diplomats":

just leave me more convinced that the libyans are screwed, set to be cannon-fodder. But it was the libyans' choice to start it, it's up to them to finish it. In the meanwhile, those speculating on higher oil prices re making a killing...

The only thing I can agree with you Innominatu, is that you are completely uniformed on what is going on in Lybia. NOTHING of what you said is true.

 

[innonimatu]

The only thing I can agree with you Innominatu, is that you are completely uniformed on what is going on in Lybia. NOTHING of what you said is true.

What, the complete confusion going on about the situation is not true? The unreliable news are not true? Do go ahead and post better news and reliable sources on what is going on, I'm rather curious abut it! Else we can just wait and see.

 

[Tani Coyote]

From what I hear, a no-fly zone can amount to a de facto state of war since it requires enforcement.

Read: If Qadaffi sends his planes into the sky, we have to shoot them down AND bomb the crap out of his airfields.

Sounds like a soft war if you ask me.

All this considered, it's no wonder even that is a huge topic of debate. Even if the UN passed it it'd amount to nothing without a power to back it up. Who knows though; Obama's been growing a spine ever since the Republicans took the House, so maybe he'll push for the aggressive option. He's finally realised he needs to be bold and not be the American equivalent of a constitutional monarch.

 

[emzie]

I think the shooting down hostile planes was a given? The other requirement is taking out enemy radar facilities and SAM sites.

 

[Tani Coyote]

Apparently some people don't realise the military aspect of "no-fly zone," however.

It's not too surprising really.

Makes sense why leaders are on their toes about it though... It'd be on par with the administration granting the rebels' request for weapons.

 

[emzie]

Apparently some people don't realise the military aspect of "no-fly zone," however.

It's not too surprising really.

Makes sense why leaders are on their toes about it though... It'd be on par with the administration granting the rebels' request for weapons.

Depends on why the no-fly zone was implemented (hypothetically speaking here). If it was done to keep one armed faction from overrunning another armed faction, then yeah, that's on par with giving weapons. If it's done to keep a bat[expletive] insane drama queen from indiscriminately bombing civilians then that's a whole different issue and isn't taking sides.

I support the latter, assuming that indiscriminate bombing is going on. I don't doubt it was tried (two pilots showing up in Malta is pretty strong evidence for me) but I'm not sure if it's continuing.