Per
steamdb.info, Millennia has significantly increased their Steam follower count since the demo launched:
View attachment 684611
15,500 the day before the demo started (already up from 13,300 a month ago), to 20,850 today, still gaining hundreds per day. I would expect that is considered significant for a new studio (even as it is composed by veterans of games such as
Age of Mythology).
Now I'm curious if, if Solver has the wizardry to tell that there were 400 players today, is there also the wizardry to tell what the peak was last Monday?
20,850 followers. Some maths (cuz we be nerds).
By Steam game averages, followers -> wishlist multiplier for pre-release turn-based strategy 4x games (which Millennia is), is 9.0.
In general, wishlist to sales conversions (7-day post release conversion of release day wishlist) is between 10-20%, with weighting towards 12%.
So what's that tell us?
Of the current 20,850 followers, we can generalise that translates to 187,650 wishlists.
Of the generalised current 187,650 wishlists, we can estimate that will translate to 22,518 first week sales.
If we then say Millennia will sell for $50 USD (most of PDX's recent large scale titles have been this price), then ~$1.125 million USD raw sales, ~$788,130 USD after Steam's 30% cut.
Let's reverse engineer a bit. Say PDX wants $5 million USD first week gross after Steam (which is actually probably on the low side if they want to make this a long term title). That's aiming at ~143,000 sales.
They would be aiming for (based on the above generalisations) ~132,200 followers.
They got a fair way to go.
EDIT: BTW, I just want to be totally clear. I have no idea on the figures that Paradox C-Prompt are working on for the game. The above is based on some research I did for myself, for other things, and in relation to Indie games. Whilst there is statistical support for the above, it in no way means accuracy. Just want to make sure that's on the table before you all reply.
