Okay, I'm assuming for simplicity's sake that I have a choice between these two options and their implications:
- Bombing the town has a 100% chance of causing the death of all people in that town (all of which are civilian foreigners) and all terrorists underneath the town, as well as the complete and utter destruction of the city's infrastructure
- Not bombing the town has a 100% chance of causing the death of exactly 3,000 of my own civilian citizens this year, followed by the deaths of all of the terrorists involved
If the town has less than 3,000 people, I would bomb it. Then at least I won't have made martyrs out of the terrorists (as they would have if they successfully attacked my citizens and then were killed), and fewer civilians will have died. The world may hate me for it, but I would do my best to show foreign nations my reasoning and what little choice I had - try to inspire some empathy, that is. And also send plenty of aid to the country I bombed.
If it were more than 3,000 people, though, I would not bomb the town, because I would still minimize civilian casualties. Also, although I would make martyrs out of the terrorists, I think if I did bomb the town, the international (and domestic) outrage would be too much, especially if it was significantly higher than 3,000 in the town.
[edit]Oh yeah, treaties and existing diplomatic relations and all that stuff. Err, I don't really feel like adding that factor in. I guess you could say that I assume that all of this is completely neutral.[/edit]