MRG's Random Game of Randomness

Preflight: changed a few citizens for better growth and more beakers, raised science to 60%.

Spoiler Turnlog :

T1, 460AD: KK Herioc Epic -> Marketplace
Tabriz: Galley -> Galley (set it up for 10spt now)
Ereen: Worker -> Settler
Tosontsengel: Harbor -> Galley (perhaps needs to be changed to court, lib or aqueduct later?!)
Atlay: Worker -> Worker

Reduce science to 30%, as our pockets are empty...

T2, 470AD: Darhan: W -> W
Choy: W -> W
Nalayh founded, starts Harbor

Reduce science to 20%, Invention due in 9 turns, but I can "oscillate" now between 20 and 30, so it'll probably more like 7 turns.

T3, 480AD: Uliastay: W -> W

Science increased to 30%

T4, 490AD: Ta-Tu: Treb -> Treb
Kazan: Market -> Treb
Tabriz: Galley -> Galley
Darhan: W -> W
Daland: G -> G
Mandalgovi: Market -> Barracks
Choy: W -> W
Barun-Urt: Lib -> Market

Korea starts Magellan.

We could buy Theology for Engineering and 9gpt, but why pay 180g for a tech that most probably we won't need in this game? It would slow down Invention, and then we need the gold for upgrades.

T5, 500AD: Out of the blue, a lone Byzantine Knight attacks Ch'onfu and kills an eArcher. I can kill it in the counter-attack. 1-1
Move a spear into Ch'onfu

T6, 510AD: KK: Market -> Archer
Ta-Tu: Treb -> Treb
Kazan: Treb -> Treb
Darhan: W -> W
Mandalgovi: Barracks -> Archer
Choy: W -> W
Tsetserleg: Court -> Settler

T7, 520AD: Tabriz: G -> G
Egypt starts Smith's.
7 Byzantine Knights appear at Ch'ongfu.

I guess it's time for another change of plans... We can't hold Ch'ongfu against the stack of Dromons + these Knights. I make peace for all their gold (11). In three turns we can do some leader-fishing against the Egyptians and then move against Korea again. Set many cities on pre-builds for LBs (especially Ta-Tu and Kazan, who have barracks) and move archers towards Mandalgovi for upgrades.

T8, 530AD: Invention finished.
KK: LB -> LB
Almarikh: Market -> LB
Ulaanbaatar: Aqueduct -> Galley
Darhan: W-> Lib (we can let Darhan grow now. One worker pump should be sufficient for what we still need.)
Choy: W -> W
Ulaangom: Harbor -> G
Byzantium starts Smith's.

First LBs are upgraded.

T9, 540AD: More LBs finished, more upgraded.
Sumeria now has Chivalry. I get 7g + Chiv for Engineering. Then I get Theology for Invention. (Who knows, perhaps Spoonwood is right and Artemis + Cavalry does not win this game. Then another tech for free cannot hurt...)

T10, 550AD: More LBs finished, more upgraded.
Two Portuguese archers and two Spanish ACs arrive at Ch'ongfu. Need to send some units there.
I think, we can still handle these units for a while, but perhaps need to make peace here as well.


Handover notes:
In 1-2 turns, everything should be ready for declaring on Egypt again. They have lots of archers at Taegwon, so can fish for another leader there, with all the Trebs and LBs.
After Taegwon, we are ready to go after Korea again.
Baruun-Urt can be pushed to 11 next turn.
Erdenet can grow in 3, not 4!
Use the 6 workers at Bayanhongor to push Erdenet, and later Tsetserleg, after it has grown once naturally.
There are enough workers under the Army to finish the road, so it can move where needed next turn.
 

Attachments

Yeah that's why I was opening up the possibility of making peace with Bayz a lot earlier. When I saw the first few dromons pop up I knew she would have more because the land campaign failed. We could counter with a navy, but seems like right now we can have solid land troops or a solid navy. Not both.
 
I checked the F3 screen. Korea is a Democracy. Shakespeare's not started yet...

America has silks for sale. But, they do not have any extra gpt. Though, both Education and Gunpowder are inexpensive enough that one could purchase either of them using gpt for silks and the tech.

Sumeria has an extra source of iron.

Korea has almost completed a road up to Mongolian borders. They have extra wines and silks.

Portugal has extra dyes, but no idea about a trade network.

Spain still has extra horses and iron, and two extra ivory, though no idea about a trade network.

It's 1226 gold for an immediate steal from Korea and 1132 gold for an immediate steal from America.
 
Who knows, perhaps Spoonwood is right and Artemis + Cavalry does not win this game.

Magellan's Voyage and Smith's Trading Company are both Commercial. Korea, who has been the tech leader apparently through most of the middle ages (no one else is a Democracy), is trying to build both of them. Newton's University is scientific. Korea can get Nationalism as their free tech or the Byzantines can. Trebuchets + longbows + spears (or muskets, if you have saltpeter I suppose) vs. Korean rifles doesn't sound far fetched. I haven't done a whole lot of the fight more advanced units with less advanced units, but my understanding lies in that you want a strong enough defensive army to not get attacked and a good amount of artillery type units. I don't know if a healthy spear army will get attacked by rifles, but I guess it would get attacked by guerillas.

No known trade route to horses on this map to horses on this map before Navigation or Magnetism that does not run through Korean borders.

The other night I re-read an old strategy article called the pillaging offensive strategy. The AIs won't attack a 7/12 (or healthier), 3 defense army before tanks. So, if you have cavalry, the AIs could get crippled with a strong enough army and accompanying units to pillage. But, such pillaging is even more effective with explorers. The least expansive army before tanks, would be a pikeman 3 veteran unit army, which is only 90 shields for the units instead of 240 for a cavalry army. I don't know if you would want to keep an army around the capital or use it to pillage elsewhere. Again though, such pillaging comes as quickest and cheapest to do with explorers accompanying an army.
 
Gunpowder is 1316b. I would rather research it than trying to steal and fail. (It would fit perfectly to this game, if we fail 5 times in a row... :smoke:)
Buying, for example from Korea, would be 68gpt = 1360g. Egypt wants 74gpt. Also not cheaper than self-research.

If we no longer care for our trade rep, I would say we buy it (and perhaps Chemistry as well, our gpt should be enough - if necessary, we can lower lux tax for a moment), before we re-declare... :devil:
Then we only have two more techs, Metallurgy and Military Tradition, to do ourselves. (Even better would be, if they would have units in our territory, and we can make then declare on us, but neither they nor the Egyptians sent any units over the border in a long time. :()

A new plan could look like this now:
  1. In a few turns, eliminate the Egyptian thorn in our side. We don't want that, when we advance on Korea again. There are 20 or more Egyptian units there, only spears and archers, so excellent leader fishing fodder.
  2. All the while, we keep upgrading our units. We are making 139gpt. 21 archers and 3 catapults require 21x60 + 3x30 = 1350 gold. So in about 10 turns we could turn on research again.
  3. We need to make a decision: do we still need our trade rep? I would say no.
    In that case: buy Gunpowder and Chemistry for gpt and then declare. Research Metallurgy. (Perhaps we can even buy Metallurgy as well: with all sliders set to 0%, we are making 274gpt. Then we can research MT right away.)
    Otherwise: research Gunpowder.
  4. Advance into Korea as long as we only encounter muskets. (If we can see their saltpeter, go for that. Perhaps we are lucky, and it is in the desert between Chonju and Chinje!)
    Flip risk is probably too high, until we have Artemis, so we should do raze & replace. That means we need some kind of settler pump in the east. Can Tsetserleg do it? Would need a granary then. Food is enough, but it makes only 5 spt at size 5, but 8spt at size 6.
    5 + 5(3) + 8 + 8(x) = 29 + x
    The 9th shield is corrupted again, so we would need to keep a 4th hill free, that Tsetserleg can take on the second growth. Then it can run as 4-turner!
  5. Once we encounter Rifles, we need to reconsider. If we have an LB Army by then, we could try for a bit more, otherwise stop and wait for Cavalry.

Yeah that's why I was opening up the possibility of making peace with Bayz a lot earlier. When I saw the first few dromons pop up I knew she would have more because the land campaign failed. We could counter with a navy, but seems like right now we can have solid land troops or a solid navy. Not both.
The problem was mainly the Knights: they came a bit too early: we did not yet have any roads yet up there, so could not attack first, (and even if we had, Invention had just finished, so we didn't have any LBs there yet - and attacking Knights with archers isn't fun either...), so they would attack first, with a bit of luck kill the lone spear defender and then a lot of archers. They would have done a lot of damage, which I thought just isn't worth it, as we didn't have WH from them anymore anyways. (The constant bombardment had evaporated it by now.)
If they had come like 5 turns later, we could have killed them with some LBs (road was already in preparation, but as usual, a bit too late... I don't think the 12 turns for the mine there payed off) and kept the original plan, provided not more of these Knights kept showing up. Our fleet has already grown to 9 galleys, a few more and I would have challenged those 5-6 dromons and then prepared some more for the invasion.

Two more handover notes:
  • Sell our world map to Korea.
  • Switch the market in Tsetserleg to granary and prepare it as settler factory.
 
I will grab the save and post a preflight (if needed?) this evening. But for now...
Portugal has extra dyes, but no idea about a trade network.

Spain still has extra horses and iron, and two extra ivory, though no idea about a trade network.
Ummm... Aren't we still at war with both those Civs?

If so, that would seem like the more likely reason that we can't trade with them! ;) :p
No known trade route to horses on this map to horses on this map before Navigation or Magnetism that does not run through Korean borders.
Even if Korean Culture currently covers the Sea trade-routes (from Byz/Spain?), that only matters once we're at war with Korea.

But if Wang is trying to build MagVoy, then he can already trade over Oceans — and if he has sold Navi around (or at least made it cheaper to research), then likely so can almost everyone else (except Gil!), because the AI usually loooooves that [Feud]–Mono–[Chiv]–Theo–Edu–Astro–Navi beeline. So with all possible Harbour–Harbour trade-routes now viable, we should be able to buy [stuff] from anyone who has spares (except Gil!) — and without any worry about losing access due to DoWs (except from our trade-partner).

Even if Navi is still a Korean monopoly, then anyone who knows Astro would still be able to sell [stuff] to us along a viable (peacetime) Coast/Sea-tile trade-route. If Dora knows Banking/Econ, then it seems unlikely that she doesn't know Astro (see above), i.e. now that we've signed peace with Dora, it might be worth checking whether we can buy Horses from her (or Bella, if we made peace with her as well?). Because if we can, then we can start building Keshiks already!

We should already be able to build Keshiks pretty quickly in our core (60s = 3-6 T per Pop12 town?), so if we were to build a couple of Keshiks initially, and use one to trigger our GA against Egypt, we would then be able to use the GA-shields (and commerce) to build up (and support) a stack of them, until we have sufficient fast-attack strength (say, 20 vKeshiks spare?) to safely declare on Wang as well.

DoWing Wang would prevent Dora (or Bella) from sending us more Horses (and I think that wouldn't even affect our trade-rep, since it wouldn't be us who was unable to complete the deal?), but any Keshiks that weren't finished at that point, could still be cash-rushed, e.g. using the GA commerce — plus the GPT we'd save by getting the Horse-trade cut off. And once the Koreans' incoming was expunged, we could send the first wave of Keshiks along the coast of south Korea, capturing /razing their towns until that Horse-import route was clear again.
But, such pillaging is even more effective with explorers.
But having Explorers means getting Edu/Astro, thus rendering Artemis (which is in Seoul, IIRC?) useless.

So pillaging with Explorers is maybe something to think about doing later on — maybe after we've grabbed a large (>40%?) chunk of the Continent and GLib'd ourselves into the Industrial era? — but right now, I still think Keshiks —> MilTrad/Cavs is the way to go
In a few turns, eliminate the Egyptian thorn in our side. We don't want that, when we advance on Korea again. There are 20 or more Egyptian units there, only spears and archers, so excellent leader fishing fodder.
Leader-fishing vs. Egypt is a very fine idea, but we also need a plan for any fished leaders! Presumably we would be turning them (all) into Armies, but then what? Make a defensive Army to cover our slow attack-units as they march into enemy territory? Make an LBM-Army for a bit more wuums ;) than MRG's Archer-Army? Or simply stockpile them all until we have better units (Muskets, Keshiks and/or Cavs) to load into them?

If we do still want to have (at least) one defensive-Army(?), then is a Spear-Army really still a viable option, or might it be better to try and obtain Iron for a Pike-Army? Or should we rather wait until we've captured the Koreans' Saltpeter (at least some of which is most likely somewhere in that large stretch of Desert — so we will have access to it once that territory is ours, and we know Gunpowder) and make a Musket-Army?
 
Ummm... Aren't we still at war with both those Civs?

Yes. You can see what luxuries and resources AIs have without making peace though.


But if Wang is trying to build MagVoy, then he can already trade over Oceans

Yes. My guess is that he hasn't found Sumeria yet. But, when he does, he'll purchase their extra iron.

The AIs don't beeline education. Or at least, that's not a general tendency. Some more. Astronomy-Navigation though definitely is an AI beeline path.

So with all possible Harbour–Harbour trade-routes now viable, we should be able to buy [stuff] from anyone who has spares (except Gil!) — and without any worry about losing access due to DoWs (except from our trade-partner).

Maybe. Though you might need Navigation for that to work, I'm not sure.

Even if Navi is still a Korean monopoly, then anyone who knows Astro would still be able to sell [stuff] to us along a viable (peacetime) Coast/Sea-tile trade-route. If Dora knows Banking/Econ, then it seems unlikely that she doesn't know Astro (see above), i.e. now that we've signed peace with Dora, it might be worth checking whether we can buy Horses from her (or Bella, if we made peace with her as well?). Because if we can, then we can start building Keshiks already!

I think only Spain has extra horses.


and I think that wouldn't even affect our trade-rep, since it wouldn't be us who was unable to complete the deal?

Correct, it would NOT hurt your trade reputation. Whoever supplies the resource or luxury has the responsibility of making sure that those resources or luxuries get to the other capital. If they don't, say because a trade route is cut deliberately, then the party which was supposed to supply such gets a reputation hit and becomes known as a "liar and a cheat".
 
Maybe. Though you might need Navigation for that to work, I'm not sure.
Only one of the 2 (potential) trading-partners needs the ability to trade over Seas/ Oceans for an intercontinental Harbour–Harbour trade route to be possible.

Just like how only one of the 2 (potential) trading-partners needs to know how to trade Maps, or sign an MA, or an MPP...
 
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We need to make a decision: do we still need our trade rep? I would say no.

If you keep your trading reputation in tact, over the course of a few turns, it's likely possible to obtain all of the worlds gold, gold per turn, and technologies. If you don't have your trading reputation in tact though using gpt to get their luxuries/resources, and then cut trade roads becomes difficult if not impossible since they won't take gold per turn for much, if anything.
 
OK, I've had a look at the save.

I can get TaTu to 20 SPT (at -1FPT), so I'll rush it to Spear and then switch back to LBM (1T to complete), OK?
Erdenet can grow in 3, not 4!
Yes, but we want the Duct done before the food-box is full, right? I think we also don't need Culture there yet, because Daland's borders will pop in 12T, giving Erde the Whale, before it could get a Lib up and popped itself. So maybe Galleys there -- or a Market then Galleys?

I have to say, my inner retentive winced a little at some of the newest town-placement (Tes not on the river, Nalayh crowding Ulaang instead of being closer to Taeg, Bayan not on the coastal Hill...) but WTH, they're all going to be (ICS'd?) CrapTowns anyway, right...?

Most of the Settlers currently building will presumably need to head for the front, if we're doing raze-n-replace? But I'd like to plant a town on the Hill 2S of Atlay, to (eventually, with a little help from ToA) get both those Whales, and another SSW of Choyr (to use that Fish).

Looks like there's no way (other than making peace) to prevent the Spanish ACavs from attacking Chongfu and Tes over the interturn, so are we happy to just let it happen and then kill them afterwards (with the Army, the eArchers, or the LBMs that are still just out of range...)?

I mean, we don't seem to have any WW from anyone right now, but I can't remember if we're (still?) getting WH from anyone? (Portugal? Henry's Archers don't pose any major threat though, so until we've secured some Luxes, I'd be inclined to let him keep on sending similarly harmless [stuff] at us...)

I guess I'll be DoWing Cleo once we have our roads built towards Taegwon, and a substantial number of LBMs +Trebs stacked up on the unCultured Hill (where the eArcher-stack is currently standing), to bomb/kill her initial rush? (OK to upgrade that e*Archer, BTW...? :mischief: ). Is everyone OK with first trying to buy a tech(s) from her, using GPT?

And is it worth MA-ing with anyone vs. Cleo -- and if so, who should it be? Dora, Bella, or Abe? If Dora, we would need to spend 77g for an Embassy first; if Bella, likewise, but the price will likely be higher. (An Embassy to Egypt is already 111g, and Spain looks almost as big, albeit possibly slightly closer to us...)
 
We might very well already have Saltpeter somewhere in our territory, given all the mountains and deserts we have, that would certainly be nice to know. Would also be good to get Korea's territory map at some point to find out where all their resources are.
 
And is it worth MA-ing with anyone vs. Cleo -- and if so, who should it be? Dora, Bella, or Abe? If Dora, we would need to spend 77g for an Embassy first; if Bella, likewise, but the price will likely be higher. (An Embassy to Egypt is already 111g, and Spain looks almost as big, albeit possibly slightly closer to us...)

If we are going for MA's, wouldn't that be harder if we wreck our trade reputation when we declare?
 
I can get TaTu to 20 SPT (at -1FPT), so I'll rush it to Spear and then switch back to LBM (1T to complete), OK?
Hmm, you can exchange a BG from KK, then Ta-Tu is at 18spt. How do you get two more shields for the price of 1f? There aren't any hills around?! Choybalsan needs its BG, unless it has a mined mountain to pick up on growth.

Yes, but we want the Duct done before the food-box is full, right?
Right. I just wanted to emphasize, that the Duct will finish in two turns, and then on the third turn, don't forget to switch a hill tile to coast to make the required food for growth in one.

but WTH, they're all going to be (ICS'd?) CrapTowns anyway, right...?
Yep. We are currently paying > 100gpt in unit upkeep, and the area beyond first ring distance of the FP isn't going to be productive anyway, plus it's mostly desert, so we can just ICS it.

dotmap.png


I guess I'll be DoWing Cleo once we have our roads built towards Taegwon, and a substantial number of LBMs +Trebs stacked up on the unCultured Hill (where the eArcher-stack is currently standing), to bomb/kill her initial rush? (OK to upgrade that e*Archer, BTW...? :mischief: )
Yes, after declaring, wait for her initial rush so you can deal with it where you have better mobility and on flatland. (And yes, probably forgot to move it to Mandalgovi...)

Is everyone OK with first trying to buy a tech(s) from her, using GPT?
I am ok with it. But: we can only pull that scam once... Afterwards no one will sell us techs for gpt anymore... So we better get the most out of it. Korea is more advanced than Egypt, so the likelihood that we can get Gunpowder and Chemistry and Metallurgy from Korea is higher than from Egypt. Perhaps it's better to wait a few more turns and do it with Korea?

Looks like there's no way (other than making peace) to prevent the Spanish ACavs from attacking Chongfu and Tes over the interturn, so are we happy to just let it happen and then kill them afterwards (with the Army, the eArchers, or the LBMs that are still just out of range...)?
We may lose a spear or two, but then yes, the Army and eArchers should be able to pick up the survivors. One spear is on a hill, that ACav is already damaged from a Treb-shot, and the defensive fire of the Trebs should also do some damage. The LBs are meant for dealing with the Portuguese archers. I could have moved them 2S of Ch'ongfu, but then they would have been exposed to the ACav. I rather lose a spear than an LB.

If we are going for MA's, wouldn't that be harder if we wreck our trade reputation when we declare?
The experience with America has shown, that it's not really worth it to try for MAs, is it... :undecide:
 
If we are going for MA's, wouldn't that be harder if we wreck our trade reputation when we declare?
Ruining trade rep means the AI won't sell upfront goods like techs for GPT anymore, but they will still take GPT for 20T deals like MAs and Resource-trades

Hmm, you can exchange a BG from KK, then Ta-Tu is at 18spt. How do you get two more shields for the price of 1f? There aren't any hills around?! Choybalsan needs its BG, unless it has a mined mountain to pick up on growth.
I'd have to check again, but I think I took a tile(s) from Darhan as well/instead.

(Sorry for double-post, on my phone right now. Feel free to merge these two posts, Mr Moderator, sir ;) )

EDIT to add screenies. I did it like this:

MRG_1 TaTu at 20SPT, -1FPT.png

I took a 2FPT,2SPT tile each from KK (which was making 21 SPT, so could use TT's 2FPT,1SPT tile instead) and Choybalsan, and gave away TT's 3FPT,0SPT tile to Darhan, which in turn gave its 3FPT,1SPT tile to Choy:
MRG_1 Choybalsan at 5SPT, 5FPT.png

...leaving the 3FPT,0SPT tile available for Choy's 6th citizen-on-growth (when Batshi finishes its Duct, it can use it instead; at present it can't use it due to unhappiness if most citizens work land-tiles -- but it also doesn't need that extra food).

This does admittedly slow Darhan's Lib-build to 14T right now, but it still has Forest to chop, and a Mountain to mine once those Workers are done with the road.
 
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OK, I'm on Turn 8 of my set (630 AD) and we need a(nother) team-discussion.

Dora has just acquired a spare Iron, and she also has Navigation (she's now trying to build MagVoy as well). So if we want it, we can import it via Ocean-tiles, so will not lose it by DoW-ing Wang (unless he buys Dora's loyalty!). The catch? She wants 101 GPT to send it to us! :faint:

After I finished upgrading all our vArchers + Cats, I raised SCI% to 40% for a slight deficit-spend on researching Gunpowder (in 7T, at that time: 50% would have bankrupted us within 3T), or making it cheaper for us to buy the remaining beakers.

However, I just had to increase LUX% to 40% (and drop SCI% to 30%) to cope with some WW. This is probably from the Taegwon War, which has been bloody but is now in sight of victory, with our troops having just arrived at the gates of that town. But it may possibly be from the Spanish killing some of our Workers (due to a blunder on my part) and sinking several Galleys -- or from the stacks of Portuguese units which Henry has sent to die near Chongfu every couple of turns so far (he gave us an LBM-Army, but it has had to stay near Chongfu).

So we are now 5T from Gunpowder, still at a small deficit (-14 GPT, with 128g in the kitty).

But if I reduce SCI% further, we can afford Dora's extortionate price: zero SCI% would leave us with about +35GPT income after buying the Iron. That might be enough to buy the remaining beakers of Gunpowder, but might also make it more difficult to get the income we would need to trick Wang into selling us Chem + Metallurgy for GPT, before we DoW him.

Nonetheless, I think this deal may be worth taking, if only so that we can build vMaces in our 10-, 14- + 20-SPT towns, and vPikes out of Mandal. Since the upgrades were finished, I have been 'wasting' the Mandal Barracks-maintenance by building 2T-Trebs -- because 17SPT is a really awkward number for both LBMs and Spears, with no cheap short-rushes available (paying 80g for a Worker at zero-shields, then switching to a 2T-LBM is not what I'd call cheap -- and wastes the same 4s as building the Treb).

It would seem preferable to have Pikes defending our stack(s) as they make their way into Korea, and Pikes would also be useful to defend the towns we'll found as our borders advance. For example, having vPikes in Chongfu (which is now Walled, on the assumption that we will never be putting a Duct there) might even make that town sufficiently unattractive that the Portuguese units head for Tes instead, i.e. diverting them onto flat ground for easier kills.

(Muskets would of course be nicer defenders, but given that all Strat/Lux-resources are scarcer on an underpopulated world, and the way this game's gone so far, I hold out little hope that the map-generator actually saw fit to give us some Salt anywhere within our borders!)

But maybe the team would rather wait and see if my pessimism is unfounded...?
 
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Paying that much for it seems like it would set us back a lot on doing other things with our gold, and it's really Horses we need more than Iron. I'd say we should at least wait to see if we have Saltpeter or not before deciding whether to buy Iron.
 
Paying that much for it seems like it would set us back a lot on doing other things with our gold, and it's really Horses we need more than Iron.

A 3 defense army, say made from pikeman, shouldn't get attacked if it has at least 7/12 hp. Iron + coal may also be better on a map where you're in a corner than horses and either no coal or no iron. You can instantly get reinforcements to the front and any pikeman army can get pillaging with rails, especially if it has explorers with it.

Edit: I count a 9 tile border in the last save, and 26 cities for 6 armies total. Probably could squeeze in a few more cities in a pinch, and get some more from Korea's territory possibly, and get total city count up to 36 soon enough. A wall of healthy enough pikeman armies shouldn't get attacked before tanks or bombers.

There's also a narrower strip up near Korea.

The thing about that deal though is the cost. And you all don't have the ability to build banks and aren't getting gpt from any of the AIs also.

Edit 2: Also, any such deal where you're supplying gpt or hard goods only, can get cancelled at any time by disconnecting the trade route to your capital (you can always pillage all 8 squares directly adjacent to your capital). The AI has the responsibility of supplying the resource or luxury under any condition, and thus the AI takes the reputation hit, not you.
 
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If all we've been dealing with so far is infantry units then we don't need the iron for pikes. Have a few units set as scouts and pull them back when you start to see the stacks. Attack them before they can attack us.

If however we are seeing a significant number of units that can move two tiles or more without time to attack them before they attack us the iron would be useful. I don't think it would be 101 gpt useful though.
 
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