Menzies I understand the logic [Which you are doing is a personal attack by the way and against the spirit of these forums], I just think its flawed. We have examples of shifts, the logic just is based on pure speculation without significant precedent {And yes a somewhat glossing over the events} yet you continue to run on the assumption that its a given. Its the fact that it isn't certain, that is the largest issue of contention which you keep vehemently asserting it is a near certainty
Where exactly is the personal attack, I'm just a prick, and I write like a prick a lot of the time, don't take it personally, you see, I'm a prick.
Just because you think something is flawed does mean that it is, unless you can demonstrate it is, then you shouldn't say that it is.
The "shifts" as you call them have been well described and explained already. They in fact have only happened to two city states, Lhasa and Budapest, and, and described over and over again, only in replacing another two city states, Vienna and Edinburgh. It isn't a flaw, it's well defined in the description of what's going on. For a full description, you can read the thread I started what... a day or so ago on the matter, called "City state colour" if I recall.
There is no speculation in this, it is a clearly observed pattern, with precedence and nothing going against it. In all cases that a city state has taken a known colour-type combination, it has replaced a known city state. There is no question of this, there is no exception here, this has happened every single time.
To repeat, I'm not repeating the above based on an assumption, it is something that has been observed and there is nothing going against it, and to claim that there is is to go against the facts and the precedent here. I'm uncertain as to how you've missed this point.