Not Ragusa, Venice

[Gucumatz]

Then I am afraid you don't understand what a law is.

================================
Can be formulated mathematically as one or several statements or equation, or at least stated in a single sentence, so that it can be used to predict the outcome of an experiment, given the initial, boundary, and other physical conditions of the processes which take place,

Are strongly supported by empirical evidence - they are scientific knowledge that experiments have repeatedly verified (and never falsified). Their accuracy does not change when new theories are worked out, but rather the scope of application, since the equation (if any) representing the law does not change. As with other scientific knowledge, they do not have absolute certainty like mathematical theorems or identities, and it is always possible for a law to be overturned by future observations.

Are often quoted as a fundamental controlling influence rather than a description of observed facts

 

[codepoet]

Of course venice could simply have switched colours, like i believe a number of city states did in G&K

I like the colors / city states theory. But this right here at the end of the day is why I just don't follow it to some kind of certainty.

You see.. I am a software engineer. Mapping out who replaces who is simply not something I'd do. What I'd care about with a non-functionality related item is having the number of slots covered. So switching the colors of existing city-states... it breaks nothing, it's cosmetic. This would especially be true if one of the new Civs takes out a whole collection of the existing city-states (like Italy or Venice probably would).

So cool theory... adds to the allure of our speculation, so thanks for that! But you guys are getting too serious about it for me

 

[Menzies]

Then I am afraid you don't understand what a law is.

================================
Can be formulated mathematically as one or several statements or equation, or at least stated in a single sentence, so that it can be used to predict the outcome of an experiment, given the initial, boundary, and other physical conditions of the processes which take place,

Are strongly supported by empirical evidence - they are scientific knowledge that experiments have repeatedly verified (and never falsified). Their accuracy does not change when new theories are worked out, but rather the scope of application, since the equation (if any) representing the law does not change. As with other scientific knowledge, they do not have absolute certainty like mathematical theorems or identities, and it is always possible for a law to be overturned by future observations.

Are often quoted as a fundamental controlling influence rather than a description of observed facts

Don't worry, I know what I law is. What's funny is that you've basically described what we've observed. We have universally observed that it holds that when a city state takes a known colour-type combination, it is replacing a city state of that colour-type combination.

At this time there is no evidence falsifying what we know, it only supports what we know. We have no evidence whatsoever that changes what we know either, or question's it's accuracy in any legitimate sense.

Er, no, not the case at all. Natural laws are theories that have been thoroughly tested and for which no contradictions have yet been found.

Theories are hypotheses that seem to hold up after a fair amount of testing.

Hypotheses are conjectured explanations for observed phenomena.

A theory can be based on natural laws, but a natural law is not based on a theory. You can explain the cause of a natural law with a theory, but they are not based on one.

 

[Menzies]

I like the colors / city states theory. But this right here at the end of the day is why I just don't follow it to some kind of certainty.

You see.. I am a software engineer. Mapping out who replaces who is simply not something I'd do. What I'd care about with a non-functionality related item is having the number of slots covered. So switching the colors of existing city-states... it breaks nothing, it's cosmetic. This would especially be true if one of the new Civs takes out a whole collection of the existing city-states (like Italy or Venice probably would).

So cool theory... adds to the allure of our speculation, so thanks for that! But you guys are getting too serious about it for me

You're a software engineer, that's cool, I'm a physicist. In other irrelevant information, I still have my wisdom teeth and like hot sauces, as well as umbrellas.

Simple city state accounting has already been shown to be irrelevant during the the release of the expansion 'Gods & Kings' as they changed the type of city states. It's assumed at this point that they could change the balance of city states as we have nothing to guarantee the distribution.

What we do know however, as stated, is that whenever a city state has taken a known colour-type combination, it has been a replacement of a previous city state.

 

[Hypereon]

Menzies, I have to say your theory is actually pretty convincing.
No matter what everyone say, the evidence is still there. Almost every single city-state replacement (minus a couple) has followed this hypothethical law.

Even if we say it's purely coincidental, the odds, two cases against many (I'm too lazy to count), would say the inclusion of Italy/Venice is very likely, because odds for replacement of Venice CS because of Riga having Venice's color are really high.

Although, it seems this debate (at the time of starting writing this post) is not going anywhere, because it has started to follow the old-and-much-too-common law of debating "If someone choses to really believe in something, almost no fact, no effect how evident it is, will make one to turn his head."

So it seems that one's deep hathred for including Italy as a civilization really makes blind to every piece of supporting evidence.

Oh, you're a physicist. I'm a university socionomy and political science student so I've been trained to be prone to noticing patterns in everything much like you

 

[Menzies]

Menzies, I have to say your theory is actually pretty convincing.
No matter what everyone say, the evidence is still there. Almost every single city-state replacement (minus a couple) has followed this hypothethical law.

Even if we say it's purely coincidental, the odds, two cases against many (I'm too lazy to count), would say the inclusion of Italy/Venice is very likely, because odds for replacement of Venice CS because of Riga having Venice's color are really high.

Although, it seems this debate (at the time of starting writing this post) is not going anywhere, because it has started to follow the old-and-much-too-common law of debating "If someone choses to really believe in something, almost no fact, no effect how evident it is, will make one to turn his head."

So it seems that one's deep hathred for including Italy as a civilization really makes blind to every piece of supporting evidence.

I should repeat at this point in time I absolutely hate the idea of Italy or Venice being included, I think they're a terrible option and would rather someone else. I do however prefer facts to making things up to support what I want.

Please keep in my the point:

When a city state has taken a used colour-type combination, it has always been a replacement.

It has always been universal, there are no exceptions. There are some eccentricities in what they did with Gods & Kings, but that's included in the above.

 

[codepoet]

You're a software engineer, that's cool, I'm a physicist. In other irrelevant information, I still have my wisdom teeth and like hot sauces, as well as umbrellas.

Simple city state accounting has already been shown to be irrelevant during the the release of the expansion 'Gods & Kings' as they changed the type of city states. It's assumed at this point that they could change the balance of city states as we have nothing to guarantee the distribution.

What we do know however, as stated, is that whenever a city state has taken a known colour-type combination, it has been a replacement of a previous city state.

You're a little worked up apparently.

 

[Menzies]

You're a little worked up apparently.

I'm not worked up at all, I do seem to give that impression though. If it helps, I'm a bit of a prick, and it seems to come across in how I write.

 

[Hypereon]

I should repeat at this point in time I absolutely hate the idea of Italy or Venice being included, I think they're a terrible option and would rather someone else. I do however prefer facts to making things up to support what I want.

Please keep in my the point:

When a city state has taken a used colour-type combination, it has always been a replacement.

It has always been universal, there are no exceptions. There are some eccentricities in what they did with Gods & Kings, but that's included in the above.

Ok, sorry, got it wrong before from previous posts. So, if there really are no exceptions... we can be pretty sure Venice's been replaced. This being just a coincidence, that all city-state colors are random, that the color replacing doesn't have any law (ok, human mind has no laws, there are only patterns) behind, that the color picked in a replacement is purely random, has odds of something like 16^9 (that's 1 to 68 000 000 000) (number of colors^number of certain replacements so far) if I am anywhere near right.
Ok, the propabilities can be calculated in other ways too depending on the order of the replacements f.ex., but every single calculation gives a number that makes the odds... slightly... low.

Coming to the Italy preference, glad to see you're this open-minded to more and less prove the inclusion of an Italian civ and not hiding these results of research because of just disliking Italy's probably in.

I'm a Italy supporter (as you can see in my signature) for a reason but this isn't the right place to discuss it...

 

[codepoet]

I'm not worked up at all, I do seem to give that impression though. If it helps, I'm a bit of a prick, and it seems to come across in how I write.

Ok then. Yes. You come across extremely rude.
So anyway; you believe it irrelevant that I mention my type of work. Ok, it was not meant as an argument, just trying to tell you where I am coming from in my line of thinking (it's clearly different than where you're coming from).

As a physicist, you're good at recognizing a pattern and you've analyzed it further than others would... and you seem to have made you identified pattern pretty paramount. It's convincing stuff and I appreciate your efforts. Just so, the game is being developed by software engineers, not physicists. I just don't think that mapping out city-state replacements would follow as something that's centrally important.
Making sure that colors and types are not duplicated would be important... and in that endeavor... swapping colors of existing city states would not be impacting.

In short, I think the pattern you've recognized is coincidental because responsible software development means changes are kept to a minimum... But the whole thing gets thrown out if a civ is added that changes multiple city-states at once (like Italy/Venice would).

 

[seasnake]

In short, I think the pattern you've recognized is coincidental because responsible software development means changes are kept to a minimum... But the whole thing gets thrown out if a civ is added that changes multiple city-states at once (like Italy/Venice would).

However, what would be the point of given Venice's color to another city state if Venice is still in the game. That would be completely unecessary work, which should definitely be avoided. Venice has been changed in some way ... why?

Still think the most likely answer is it is going into a civilization. But we'll see what happens.

 

[Eagle Pursuit]

I see what you're saying, Codepoet. They don't intentionally swap out one city-state for another. But when a city-state is removed in order to be in a new civ's city list they put the disused color/type combination back into the pool of available combinations and often a new city-state will come away with the same combination as one of the removed ones. But it's also possible for a new city-state to be given a not before seen combination of color/type as in Sofia.

So, if you see a new one that has the same color/type combination as an old one that has not been seen in the new screenshots, you can assume that old one is out because its combination went back into the pool of available combinations and was given to a new city-state.

 

[TheMarshmallowBear]

So far, Ur and Sofia are the only ones with brand new colours.

 

[Eagle Pursuit]

Ur is a purple color, but is it Purple, Light Purple, or Middle Purple?

 

[TheMarshmallowBear]

Ur is a purple color, but is it Purple, Light Purple, or Middle Purple?

It's Light Purple.

Lisbon is Purple I believe (or Middle Purple)

 

[Imalich]

You're a little worked up apparently.

After a while you get used to him



Anyway, being Venice instead of Ragusa makes sense in the case of Italy's inclusion. And the Sicilian Ragusa, altought interesting, probably wouldn't be included in an Italian City List (too much competition).
Chaces are Dubrovnik will continue in the game as the Ragusa CS.

 

[DeutschDachs]

Well if Venice was in that would be the first Civ this expansion to disappoint me. Maybe I am just biased by the horrible experience I had visiting it. I could see it being a great tourist Civ though! Considering the city is overrun with them...

 

[steveg700]

We know nothing of Ragusa, they could well be just a normal city state.

...I'm so sorry.

Forty lashes with the wettest noodle we can find!

 

[phaethon16]

Venice could've switched to mercantile. It's unlikely, but possible. If they did, they wouldn't need to switch it's color, would they? Genoa is a brighter blue, so it wouldn't steal from it.

 

[Menzies]

I see what you're saying, Codepoet. They don't intentionally swap out one city-state for another. But when a city-state is removed in order to be in a new civ's city list they put the disused color/type combination back into the pool of available combinations and often a new city-state will come away with the same combination as one of the removed ones. But it's also possible for a new city-state to be given a not before seen combination of color/type as in Sofia.

So, if you see a new one that has the same color/type combination as an old one that has not been seen in the new screenshots, you can assume that old one is out because its combination went back into the pool of available combinations and was given to a new city-state.

That's not how it seems to work at all, and statistically doesn't even make sense.

There are some 80 colour-type combinations and as things stand, 42 city states. Going by types alone, say it was a Mercantile city state replaced, that would mean that 9 of the 16 colours would be used, so if it were just them having a pick from what remains, the odds are still only 1 in 7 that it would get the known combination. Considering that in all but a couple of very specific cases, there has been direct replacement this would seem to either be coin landing on it's side or a poor hypothesis for the mechanism that is producing what we're seeing.

It does seem as though they are directly replacing city states they've removed with others in almost all cases. The two who weren't directly replaced were Dublin and Stockholm. It made sense for Dublin to not be replaced as they were bringing down the numbers of Militaristic city states, whilst Stockholm shared a colour (as a few others did) and it seems that for the expansion they decided they wanted unique colour-type combinations. I'd again point out (as discussed in the other thread) that this is taken into account in the observation that all city states taking known colour-type combinations are a replacement.

Additionally, I'd point out that all "lateral" moves for city states were either as replacements (Lhasa and Budapest) or to either Mercantile or Religious, that is, they were added to help fill out the new types with some city states that it made sense to do it with. Whilst they still could "move city states sideways", there is no reason to do so. Again though, this has no impact on the observation that all city states taking known colour-type combinations are a replacement.