Oil!

[Thorgalaeg]

I think there was a similar thread some time ago, but posting there would be necroposting or whatever it is called so:

The 165-year reign of oil is coming to an end. But will we ever be able to live without it?

Like whale blubber, oil as a dominant source of energy will gradually be phased out over the next decades. Here's what that transition may look like.

www.livescience.com

I remember that just a few years ago, the biggest fear along a nuclear war was about oil reserves dwindling, production declining and oil prices skyrocketing. (The Mad Max scenery) This was called the peak oil. Well, it seems we've reached that peak, but not because reserves are declining, which are not at all, but rather because demand is declining, and rapidly, along prices. The use of oil is obviously not going to disappear completely. There are products like plastics that will be made with oil in the foreseeable future, but in general, it will become less and less necessary in the coming years, especially in places with the most advanced infrastructures, like Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China. In fact, it's already happening. These places stopped burning oil to get energy almost completely and the automotive industry is also phasing it out slow but inexorably, these two sectors accounted for the vast majority of oil consumption just a decade ago. It's harder to stop using oil in ships and airplanes, but they will do so too; still it represent a small percentage of total consumption. Of course, this trend varies by region. We have underdeveloped places like India and Africa, and to some extent Latin America, that will continue using oil massively in the next decades, and others that are not that underdeveloped but backward by choice, like the United States, which will apparently maintain oil as a essential resource for longer. Even so, oil could be on the same path of decline as whale oil at the beginning of the 20th century, and countries that rely on oil production, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, face the same bleak future as whaling stations.

So, that's the way things apparently are. What do you think will happen to oil in the coming decades, and how will it affect you and secondarily the world order?

 

[danjuno]

Telling that cars make nearly half of the market for oil. If EVs continuing to grow their share in the automotive sector, and major investments in transit are made, we definitely have a chance of mitigating of climate change. There are definitely laggards in need to prodding, though.

 

[warpus]

Eventually our children's children are going to be like

"We used to use compressed dead dinosaurs to power everything?" and somebody will respond "No it was actually mainly compressed dead plankton and algae that had over time become hydrocarbons, but a small part of that could have been compressed dead dinosaurs I suppose" and that first person will call that person a nerd, likely using some sort of a futuristic insult that doesn't exist yet, like smorg.

 

[amadeus]

I’m not opposed to the electrification of cars, but I don’t know how realistic it is to think that the majority of them will be gone by 2050. Presumably if you do convert them to electric, they would need to be plugged in, and will electric infrastructure and capacity keep up with the demand? And if so, what will be used to generate that electricity?

For the rest of stuff, lubricants and plastics, there’s still going to be demand for oil until something more cost-effective comes along as a suitable replacement.

 

[danjuno]

I’m not opposed to the electrification of cars, but I don’t know how realistic it is to think that the majority of them will be gone by 2050. Presumably if you do convert them to electric, they would need to be plugged in, and will electric infrastructure and capacity keep up with the demand? And if so, what will be used to generate that electricity?

For the rest of stuff, lubricants and plastics, there’s still going to be demand for oil until something more cost-effective comes along as a suitable replacement.

I don't think internal combustion cars will go away entirely, but I do expect sales in most areas to be dominated by EVs. Despite the efforts of some laggards, the renewable energy supply is increasing rapidly, I would expect the supply to be there by 2050.

Other issues you raise like plastic are definitely a major concern.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Big Oil may just have to diversify more than they already have.

 

[Cutlass]

There will still be demand for oil. But it can become much lower than it is.

 

[amadeus]

I would expect the supply to be there by 2050.

It sounds far away but we are the same distance in time from the year 2000 as we are 2050 as of this post!

 

[danjuno]

Report I just read did suggest that we are looks at renewables having majority market share at the end of the decade.

 

[Moff Jerjerrod]

I don't know man....there's nothing like the dopamine hit one, i.e. car enthusiast, gets when changing gears in a gas powered manual transmission car and the aggressive music that comes out of a well tuned exhaust system.

 

[warpus]

People used to say that about hunting whales. The thrill of the throw of the harpoon into the beast's face, to the tunes eminating from a 1990s death metal mix tape.

 

[stfoskey12]

I don't know man....there's nothing like the dopamine hit one, i.e. car enthusiast, gets when changing gears in a gas powered manual transmission car and the aggressive music that comes out of a well tuned exhaust system.

Okay, but manual transmission cars are already very uncommon in the US. Even if a few enthusiasts keep gas powered cars, I don't think they'll remain the default car forever.

 

[amadeus]

Could there be a cost-effective substitute for the petrol engine that would allow for car collectors to maintain their vehicles without electric power/batteries? I mean I don’t think the hobby car collector is really the primary mover of the gasoline industry, so…

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Could there be a cost-effective substitute for the petrol engine that would allow for car collectors to maintain their vehicles without electric power/batteries? I mean I don’t think the hobby car collector is really the primary mover of the gasoline industry, so…

Hydrogen?

As a petrolhead myself, I prefer to drive gasoline cars to soulless electric cars any day too. I especially hate electric cars in Formula 1. Current hybrids have taken all the fun out of it to the point i just don't watch it anymore. Miss V10 races so much... but I understand that these are irrelevant whims, and the future belongs to hybrids and 100% EVs in the short and medium term (even I'm thinking about buying an EV for daily use), and probably to hydrogen cars in the long term.

Also, I don't see 100% electric cars being able to completely replace internal combustion engines either, not only due to energy consumption but also due to infrastructure. Most people live in apartment blocks without garages where they can plug in their EVs. But there is a solution, and it's hydrogen. Let's take Spain, for example. Here, solar energy is overwhelming. During the day, we produce so much that we don't know what to do with it. We even have to self-limit it since if we run more than 50% on solar, we run the risk of blowing the fuses, as was seen a few months ago. This surplus energy can be used for water electrolysis to obtain hydrogen. This "solar hydrogen" (green hydrogen) can be used as an energy store for the night and to replace gasoline. That is the Spanish government's long-term energy plan. The switch to this hydrogen economy is colossal, but part of the infrastructure is already in place; it is none other than the natural gas infrastructure. In fact, Spain has always wanted to build gas pipelines and big capacity power lines to connect the Iberian Peninsula with the rest of Europe to sell solar energy and green hydrogen in the future, but these plans have always run into obstacles from France, which fears its nuclear energy exports being harmed and, in the future, it won't be able to compete with purple nuclear hydrogen, which is more expensive than green.

 

[amadeus]

If I recall correctly Toyota is going heavy on those. I think I might have actually gone to the factory where they make the Mirai, but this would have been even before they even had demo models of it.

 

[Arwon]

I’m not opposed to the electrification of cars, but I don’t know how realistic it is to think that the majority of them will be gone by 2050. Presumably if you do convert them to electric, they would need to be plugged in, and will electric infrastructure and capacity keep up with the demand? And if so, what will be used to generate that electricity?

For the rest of stuff, lubricants and plastics, there’s still going to be demand for oil until something more cost-effective comes along as a suitable replacement.

By 2050, world electricity generation is likely to be like 80 or 90 percent renewable, even with the growth in demand from substantial electrification of transport, households and industry. Solar and storage is starting to just swamp everything else economically.

 

[Moff Jerjerrod]

People used to say that about hunting whales. The thrill of the throw of the harpoon into the beast's face, to the tunes eminating from a 1990s death metal mix tape.

Anachronistic no?

Although I do remember reading accounts of some Roman soldiers at the battle of Cannae calling their loved ones at home on their mobile phones to say their last farewells.

 

[Samson]

We have to move away from oil for personal transportation. I think bikes have to be the answer, it is SO inefficient to use a two tonne object to move one person.

Air travel is a much harder problem. What happens to this graph in the future will determine what happens. If say Solar Photovoltaic cells drop by another factor of 5 or so then we will be flooded with more electricity than we know what to do with during the day. One thing we could do is charge electric vehicles, so it may become effectively free to charge you battery during the day.

We will not be able to make enough lithium based batteries to store all this, and any chemistry will be expensive. It could be that the best way to store this power is to convert it to hydrogen and convert that to something easier to store, like ammonia or hydrocarbons.

If that tech becomes mainstream it could save air travel and possibly even ICE vehicles in specialized circumstances. It would certainly kill out need to use oil as an energy source.

Spoiler However it seems the downward trend has stalled since 2019 :

For the rest of stuff, lubricants and plastics, there’s still going to be demand for oil until something more cost-effective comes along as a suitable replacement.

Most cars these days use synthetic lubricants, and the science of plastics for biological substrates is advancing. The environmental impact of plastics is a whole other thing, and I am not sure bioplastics solve it.

I don't know man....there's nothing like the dopamine hit one, i.e. car enthusiast, gets when changing gears in a gas powered manual transmission car and the aggressive music that comes out of a well tuned exhaust system.

Hydrogen?

As a petrolhead myself, I prefer to drive gasoline cars to soulless electric cars any day too. I especially hate electric cars in Formula 1. Current hybrids have taken all the fun out of it to the point i just don't watch it anymore. Miss V10 races so much... but I understand that these are irrelevant whims, and the future belongs to hybrids and 100% EVs in the short and medium term (even I'm thinking about buying an EV for daily use), and probably to hydrogen cars in the long term.

Also, I don't see 100% electric cars being able to completely replace internal combustion engines either, not only due to energy consumption but also due to infrastructure. Most people live in apartment blocks without garages where they can plug in their EVs. But there is a solution, and it's hydrogen. Let's take Spain, for example. Here, solar energy is overwhelming.

I am a bit of a lover of driving, and I have never driven an electric car so I do not really know. However I think we do not REALLY like the characteristics of ICE cars that much, but have we just learned to associate the actions and sounds that have gone along with what we really like, the feeling of acceleration and power, the play at the edge of traction between rubber and asphalt and/or the wind in our faces?

There is the potential to make electric vehicles, whether cars or bikes, with better performance characteristics that ICE vehicles. You have much more flexibility in the weight distribution and positioning of the motor, so you can make it more aerodynamic and/or lower centre of gravity. You get high power and efficiency at a wide range of motor speeds, reducing or eliminating the need for a selectable gear box. While obviously a gear box is a demonstration of skill it is a better vehicle to not have to do that.

During the day, we produce so much that we don't know what to do with it. We even have to self-limit it since if we run more than 50% on solar, we run the risk of blowing the fuses, as was seen a few months ago. This surplus energy can be used for water electrolysis to obtain hydrogen. This "solar hydrogen" (green hydrogen) can be used as an energy store for the night and to replace gasoline. That is the Spanish government's long-term energy plan. The switch to this hydrogen economy is colossal, but part of the infrastructure is already in place; it is none other than the natural gas infrastructure. In fact, Spain has always wanted to build gas pipelines and big capacity power lines to connect the Iberian Peninsula with the rest of Europe to sell solar energy and green hydrogen in the future, but these plans have always run into obstacles from France, which fears its nuclear energy exports being harmed and, in the future, it won't be able to compete with purple nuclear hydrogen, which is more expensive than green.

That sounds really hopeful generally.

 

[bene_legionary]

I am a bit of a lover of driving, and I have never driven an electric car so I do not really know. However I think we do not REALLY like the characteristics of ICE cars that much, but have we just learned to associate the actions and sounds that have gone along with what we really like, the feeling of acceleration and power, the play at the edge of traction between rubber and asphalt and/or the wind in our faces?

You'd be surprised at what it's like to drive an electric car, the responsiveness and acceleration is very nice. On the other hand, I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for the relative sloppiness of a manual ute that has to lumber its way everywhere – but there's just something about it that makes it feel more natural and closer to my control of the car than an EV. I say the same thing about automatic cars, though.

The only disadvantage, apart from losing that feeling, is like you say: the battery. ICE cars last a lot longer for their range; the battery of an electric car (at least, the near 9yr old BMW i3 I've experienced) is expensive to replace and heavily limits how far you can go, though it is very cheap to run (and certainly in comparison to my ute, which I drive more than I need to, for sure). I think it gets 70km per charge when it used to be over 150km plus a range extender; replacing the battery would cost as much as to buy another i3, though. Whereas my ute has kept going after 27 years.

Bikes and public transport are the way forward.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I drive a hybrid almost daily, it is a big crossover weighting 2+ tons but it feels quick and easy to drive, the automatic gearbox changes from electric to combustion and vice versa so seamlessly it is almost unnoticeable, still I have the feeling I am not full in control mostly because I am not full in control indeed. Overtaking can occasionally be concerning as the car doesn't know what you are doing and the gearbox can decide to up a gear o change to combustion in the worst moment leaving you momentarily torqueless. The car has a sport mode and such to address these things, still it is nothing as a proper manual gear and clutch. The torque of the electric engines (it has several) is great for leaving others cars behind at red lights but once you get some speed or go uphill combustion power must come to the rescue. Fuel consumption is not a strong point either, I would say it is the most hungry car I have driven, even more than my 300hp gasoline turbo roadster, probably because the excessive weight.

Of course if I were a noob driver or didn't like driving at all I would probably prefer one of these as they are way easier to learn, so the taste for traditional manual cars will probably die with old guard drivers as us.