PL Presidential Election 1st round: opposition rival 1st, incumbent president 2nd

[Domen]

http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/2...-348-Komorowski-with-322#sthash.f6AyHSDx.dpuf

An exit poll released seconds after polling stations closed in Poland reveals that major opposition rival Andrzej Duda [Law and Justice] beat incumbent Bronisław Komorowski [Civic Platform] by winning 34.8 percent of the vote, with the latter garnering 32.2 percent of the vote.

(...)

In third place, musician Paweł Kukiz [nonpartisan bloc of independent municipal politicians] managed to garner 20.3 percent, much higher than he was polling towards the end of last week.

(...)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32679820

Conservative challenger Andrzej Duda will face President Bronislaw Komorowski in a run-off in Poland's presidential election, an exit poll suggests.

The poll said no candidate would get the 50% needed to win outright. It gave Mr Duda more than than 34% of the vote and Mr Komorowski just over 32%.

Mr Komorowski is hoping to win a second term in office.

Opinion polls before the election had put him comfortably in the lead.

Mr Komorowski, 62, took office five years ago after his predecessor, Lech Kaczynski, died in a plane crash.

He is an independent allied with the centre-right Civic Platform, which has been in government since 2007.

(...)

If this exit poll is accurate, then it seems that all previous opinion polls were absolutely useless. They were totally off.

Komorowski was > Duda in all polls except one (in which it was 33% vs. 33%), and Kukiz had no more than 10% - 15% according to all polls.

 

[Cheetah]

I'm taking a wild/qualified guess here, but frekwencja means turnout? Only 49.4% of the eligible voters actually voted??

And yes, it seems the end result was rather surprising. I had thought Komorowski was almost guaranteed to win.

 

[Domen]

And - just like in all other elections in Poland during the last 10 years - it was Russia + Austria versus Prussia:

Results by region:

Borders in 1815 - 1914:

I'm taking a wild/qualified guess here, but frekwencja means turnout? Only 49.4% of the eligible voters actually voted??

Yes, frekwencja means turnout.

It is not the worst possible turnout considering Poland's reality, but it could have been better (and 5 years ago it was better).

I had thought Komorowski was almost guaranteed to win.

Indeed, Komorowski had around 40% in most polls, and Duda had just 25% in some polls, or around 30% in other polls.

 

[gay_Aleks]

Alas, it seems that the world will not have a country where the president's first name is "Bronislav".

 

[Domen]

Alas, it seems that the world will not have a country where the president's first name is "Bronislav".

Yes, it seems so. Because I suppose that at least 2/3 of those who voted for Kukiz will vote for Duda in the 2nd round.

=========================

If this exit poll is accurate, then it seems that all previous opinion polls were absolutely useless. They were totally off.

Just check for example this poll by Millward Brown from 29 April:

 

[Traitorfish]

So the choice is between a centre-right Catholic nationalist party and a right-wing Catholic nationalist party?

Jesus, it's Ireland all over again. What is it with Catholic countries?

 

[Domen]

In Scotland nationalists took 56 out of 59 seats, and in England conservative nationalists won.

But yeah, you have more religious diversity.

 

[Abegweit]

I'd do her.

 

[Borachio]

But the effort'd kill you on the first attempt.

 

[Domen]

Kor-Win party makes all the other parties look leftist (switch on English subs):


Link to video.

===================================================

Komorowski had minimal support among young people 18-29 - votes by age group:

 

[GoodSarmatian]

A party calling itself Law and justice is already scary enough. Are we looking at another Viktor Orbán here ?

 

[Leoreth]

Alas, it seems that the world will not have a country where the president's first name is "Bronislav".

He's the incumbent though, so we already had the honor

 

[Domen]

A party calling itself Law and justice is already scary enough. Are we looking at another Viktor Orbán here ?

Mind that Paweł Kukiz (20,3% of the vote and 42,2% among young people) is more right-wing than Law and Justice.

And Janusz Korwin-Mikke (13,6% of 18-29 age group votes) is more right-wing than Paweł Kukiz, but they generally get along quite well.

Kukiz declared that he will not encourage his supporters to vote either for Komorowski or for Andrzej Duda (Law and Justice).

When it comes to education, Duda is a lawyer and Komorowski is a historian (like Donald Tusk). An interesting confrontation.

Are we looking at another Viktor Orbán here ?

I'm not sure. Is Orbán anti-Semitic? Andrzej Duda's wife - Agata Duda-Kornhauser - is of Jewish descent.

You see, we get right-wing Jews while Britain gets left-wing ones (Ed Miliband).

 

[Leoreth]

Domen, what would you say, does this also signal a trend for the upcoming parliamentary elections?

 

[Domen]

Domen, what would you say, does this also signal a trend for the upcoming parliamentary elections?

It depends on what is the nature of people who voted for Kukiz. Are they his genuine supporters, or rather just protest voters?

It also depends on what will Kukiz do with such huge support. Will he create a new party? Remember, he is nonpartisan now. People who voted for Kukiz are the ones dissatisfied with Civic Platforms rules, but they also don't like Law and Justice, and Korwin-Mikke is too radically right-wing for them.

But I suppose that in the 2nd round supporters of Kukiz will mostly (ca. 2/3 ?) vote for Duda, and many will probably just stay at home.

======================

Coming back to Law and Justice:

Are we looking at another Viktor Orbán here ?

Law and Justice are pro-Ukrainian and anti-Putin. They are also not Euro-sceptic, but they do want Poland to have a strong position within the EU and don't want too much of EU interference in Poland's internal matters. They are against introducing Euro currency - at least for the time being.

They are similar to Orbán when it comes to some economic policies, and give Orbán's Hungary as an example to follow in terms of dealing with banks, etc.

Law and Justice call themselves a right-wing party, but in reality they are a strongly socialist-leaning party that wants the state to support the poor. I think that Viktor Orbán's party is leaning more to the right when it comes to economy.

Andrzej Duda was a very good choice for presidential candidate because Law and Justice's leader - Jaroslav Kaczyński - is too controversial as a person, and he is disliked by many people. The ruling camp and pro-Komorowski media have tried to accuse Duda of being just "Kaczyński's puppet", but he has managed to successfully prove that he is not - and that's why we have a result like this.

 

[Traitorfish]

In Scotland nationalists took 56 out of 59 seats, and in England conservative nationalists won.

But yeah, you have more religious diversity.

It was less the parties themselves, more that the choice seems to be between moderate and populist flavours of right-wing Catholic nationalism. It worked the same way for most of the twentieth century- only changed a few years ago- and I can't help but wonder if there's some combination of Catholic majorities, shaky civil institutions and new-found national independence that leads to that result.

A party calling itself Law and justice is already scary enough.

"Seditious language- that's five years in the iso-cube, creep!"

 

[Domen]

Founder of "Law and Justice" (Jaroslav Kaczyński) happens to be a lawyer.

Maybe it had something to do with name choice back in 2001...

Generally we have a duel lawyers versus historians.

It was less the parties themselves, more that the choice seems to be between moderate and populist flavours of right-wing Catholic nationalism. It worked the same way for most of the twentieth century- only changed a few years ago- and I can't help but wonder if there's some combination of Catholic majorities, shaky civil institutions and new-found national independence that leads to that result.

Is this about Scotland or about Poland ???

BTW - you will not find any person in Poland who thinks that Civic Platform is nationalistic.

National and ethnic minorities mostly vote for Civic Platform, by the way.

As for Catholics - Democratic Left Alliance is also Catholic. Communists in Poland were also Catholics.

The only openly Anti-Catholic party is Your Movement of Janusz Palikot.

 

[warpus]

Wow, Kukiz did well. When I was in highschool this guy was introducing me to Polish punk/rock/metal/silly music. Not directly mind you, I was trying to get my hands on as many of his albums as I could.. and that of his band, Piersi, which means Breasts. It was a silly mix of metal, traditional Polish sounds, punk, even some hip hop, jazz, blues, and whatever else they could get their hands on. These guys just love making music. It was always a refreshing and often funny sound. (in terms of the lyrics and some of the types of genres they ended up playing with).

So I think it's hilarious that the leader of a band named Breasts did so well in the election, but it seems depressing that the racist party ended up winning.

Let me also say that I LOVE the runoff system, at least in principle. It would have been far better (I think) to have a runoff between the top 3 candidates in this case.. Not because then Kukiz would be thrown into the mix, but because there were just so many candidates to begin with.

I should have really voted in this election I guess..

 

[Domen]

I should have really voted in this election I guess...

Do you still have Polish citizenship?

BTW - among Polish-Americans (in the USA) 66,4% of the votes were for Andrzej Duda:

By comparison among Polish people in Ireland 56,5% of the votes were for Paweł Kukiz:

After the exit poll result was announced, Kukiz sang "Poland is waking up", an alteration of his song "The city is waking up":


Link to video.

Tomorrow the actual result should be announced - it seems that both Kukiz and Duda got even more votes than according to exit poll. Partial results from some fraction of constituencies (published today) indicate that Duda could garner even 39% and Kukiz 21% (leaving just 29% to Komorowski):

This is hilarious - by the end of April polls were still giving over 40% to Komorowski, no more than 30% to Duda and no more than 10% to Kukiz.

In general the campaign has been disastrous for Komorowski - he started with ca. 60% support in polls, and ended with barely half of this!

I suppose Komorowski's decision to not take part in the debate on 5 May (while the remaining 10 candidates participated) was crucial. Here Kukiz can be seen during the debate on 5 May, criticizing him for refusing to take part in the dabate and showing a symbolic chair for absent Komorowski:

"I regret that Mr. President Komorowski is not with us, this testifies to arrogance and impudence of current state authorities" - said Kukiz:


Link to video.

 

[warpus]

Do you still have Polish citizenship?

Of course. I have dual Polish/EU and Canadian citizenship.

I have not yet voted in a Polish election though, because I've never really understood the political landscape very well. But with Kukiz throwing his hat in the ring, I should have done some research and possibly voted for him.

I suppose Komorowski's decision to not take part in the debate on 5 May (while the remaining 10 candidates participated) was crucial.

lol who is in charge of his re-election campaign? His ex-wife?