Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

[Gorbles]

or spoke volumes by its silence.

Folks are going to read into whatever they want. That was the case even before the earnings call, and then what wasn't said was used to then justify pre-existing conclusions.

In short, it didn't move the needle in this discussion at all.

 

[GeneralZift]

Someone actually describe the earnings call instead of just talking about it?

 

[AD1730]

Here's a link to the slides for today's Take Two earnings call: https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/583b366d-d35d-4474-9db6-9c03ba55f242

Earnings Call:

The corporate spokesman said extremely little about Civ 7. He characterized the release as a success at the beginning at the call. However, later in the call as he was going more in-depth on the various titles, he did not share sales numbers and did not highlight the Metacritic score, as he did with the other titles he spoke about (i.e. NBA 2K, WWE 2K, PGA 2K). Instead, he said they were doing work to update the game and expand the audience.

Call is still going, but I have to step away. You can find the call here: https://www.take2games.com/ir

My takeaway from what I've heard is that they aren't particularly proud of how Civ 7 is doing. I'd have to go back and time it, but I would guess that they spoke about Civ 7 the least out of the major releases they highlighted.

Was able to pick up where I left off. Here’s what my further takeaways are:

Only one investor question mentioned Civ 7, and that was in the context of congratulating them on a successful release, apparently taking Take Two’s word for it.

Most of the questions related to GTA6 and expectations surrounding that game’s release. They are counting on that one to make an inordinate amount of money. Take Two’s business rests on Zynga mobile games, NBA 2K, and Rockstar games.

The main investor concerns were development costs (potentially bad for Civ) and pricing strategy (effectively, “why aren’t you guys charging $80 yet?). How little attention Civ 7 got might allow it to just continue unnoticed, particularly if GTA 6 does as well as they believe it will.

Pretty much this. Transcribing the full quote that TT made in regards to Civ 7:


That's all we got. In comparison, every other title (including the ones that are similarly new releases) was covered with either concrete numbers tied to sales and engagement, or were accompanied by a general comment stating that the title met or exceeded expectations. Amidst all of that, Civ 7's coverage actually stands out - "the silence is deafening" may actually be applicable here.

Take it as you will. As someone who dealt with business presentations and how financial performance is typically shared with investors, I think the defence line of "we can't know for sure because nobody explicitly said it's bad" is not that strong anymore. You always flaunt positives in front of investors. If there's anything you could showcase to demonstrate that things are going well, then you do that. It's not a setting for downplaying and being humble.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I don't think it was any different from previous earnings calls

Is it possible for those with such skills to dig up the one from the quarter after Civ VI was released?

It could be telling to compare how much, and how, they spoke about Civ VI in that call.

 

[nakzox]

How are there people suggesting that Civ VII having a lower player count than V isn't anything but a disaster for the state/general reception of the game?

 

[AD1730]

Is it possible for those with such skills to dig up the one from the quarter after Civ VI was released?

It could be telling to compare how much, and how, they spoke about Civ VI in that call.

Was able to find a transcript for the relevant call, which is the Q3 2017 earnings call. You can access it here (there is a paywall, but you can sign up for free access, if you want).

Here are the Civ 6 related passages:

On October 21, 2K launched Sid Meier's Civilization VI, the latest offering from our award-winning turn-based strategy series that has sold-in nearly 40 million units worldwide. Civilization VI received stellar reviews and is the fastest selling title in the history of the series, with sell-in already surpassing 1.5 million units.


2K is supporting Civilization VI with a rich array of additional content and already has released 2K downloadable add-on content packs as well as a variety of free content for the title. Later this month, Sid Meier will be honored at the Entertainment Software Association's annual gala in San Francisco, celebrating his legendary career and contributions to our industry and art form.

During the third quarter, we delivered record digitally-delivered bookings, driven by growth in both full game downloads and recurrent consumer spending. We continue to benefit as consumers buy a growing percentage of games through digital download. And, for the current fiscal year, we're seeing more than 25% of our current generation console titles purchased digitally.... And bookings from downloadable add-on content also grew, led by offerings for Sid Meier's Civilization, WWE 2K17, XCOM 2, and Battleborn.

Turning to some details from our third quarter income statement, net revenue grew by 15% to $476.5 million. Growth was driven primarily by the launch of Sid Meier's Civilization VI and the recognition of previously deferred revenues from Grand Theft Auto Online and NBA 2K....Starting with the fiscal fourth quarter, we expect total bookings to range from $295 million to $345 million. The largest contributors are expected to be NBA 2K17, Grand Theft Auto V and Grand Theft Auto Online, WWE 2K17, Civilization VI, and Mafia III. We expect GAAP net revenue to range from $542 million to $592 million. Net revenue is expected to be increased by a $225 million change in deferred net revenue due primarily to the recognition of previously deferred revenues from Mafia III.... In addition, we now expect digitally-delivered bookings to grow by around 20%, driven by growth in both the current consumer spending and full game downloads as we now expect Grand Theft Auto Online to be up for the full fiscal year. The largest contributors are expected to be NBA 2K17 and NBA 2K16, Grand Theft Auto V and Grand Theft Auto Online, Mafia III, WWE 2K17, and Sid Meier's Civilization VI.

 

[queenpea]

Was able to find a transcript for the relevant call, which is the Q3 2017 earnings call. You can access it here (there is a paywall, but you can sign up for free access, if you want).

Here are the Civ 6 related passages:

Not exactly the same tone as the call following Civ VII.

 

[AD1730]

Not exactly the same tone as the call following Civ VII.

Nope. And in the Civ 7 call there was absolutely no mention of Civ 7 in the financials.

 

[stealth_nsk]

How confirmation bias looks like:

"So, the player number on Steam, a metric not related to sales, is lower than some threshold I've chosen at random? Civ7 is surely a total disaster!"

"Four independent pieces of information, all connected with actual sales data, hint at Civ7 having good sales outside Steam? Let me doubt that!"

 

[user746383]

Confirmation bias is imho more like when someone specifically says a lower player count is a sign of a disaster for the state and reception, and the best response someone can come up with is to falsely claim that they said low player count is a disaster for sales specifically and make fun of them personally for something they didn’t say.

Actually maybe that’s not confirmation bias, I’m not sure what I’d call someone who does that.

 

[queenpea]

How confirmation bias looks like:

"So, the player number on Steam, a metric not related to sales, is lower than some threshold I've chosen at random? Civ7 is surely a total disaster!"

"Four independent pieces of information, all connected with actual sales data, hint at Civ7 having good sales outside Steam? Let me doubt that!"

Perhaps "disaster" is too strong language for you personally, and perhaps you think there isn't enough evidence to label it a disaster, but I think there are even fewer clues and hints that Civ 7 is performing better with console players than it is with Steam. I don't think I would use the word "disaster," but I wouldn't call this a successful start either.

 

[stealth_nsk]

Confirmation bias is imho more like when someone specifically says a lower player count is a sign of a disaster for the state and reception, and the best response someone can come up with is to falsely claim that they said low player count is a disaster for sales specifically and make fun of them personally for something they didn’t say.

It was not about a particular person, it's about overall tone of this thread.

 

[nakzox]

How confirmation bias looks like:

"So, the player number on Steam, a metric not related to sales, is lower than some threshold I've chosen at random? Civ7 is surely a total disaster!"

"Four independent pieces of information, all connected with actual sales data, hint at Civ7 having good sales outside Steam? Let me doubt that!"

The game obviously sold well. That's not the point. I struggle to find another example in a major franchise like Civ (I guess other than Age of Empires) where the edition from 15 years ago is getting higher play counts and nearly double the players than the shiny new version. If that's not a disaster, I don't know what is.

 

[user746383]

It was not about a particular person, it's about overall tone of this thread.

I stand corrected, you’re making fun of everyone who doesn’t have the same opinion then. I still don’t find it to be very accurate, or why you’d happen to quote that one person nearly exactly if you weren’t talking about them.

 

[stealth_nsk]

Perhaps "disaster" is too strong language for you personally, and perhaps you think there isn't enough evidence to label it a disaster, but I think there are even fewer clues and hints that Civ 7 is performing better with console players than it is with Steam. I don't think I would use the word "disaster," but I wouldn't call this a successful start either.

My point stays as before. We don't have enough information to seriously talk about success or failure of Civ7 yet.

The only thing we are more or less sure is that Civ7 has worse initial reception than Civ6 in terms of player reviews. Formally, it's a bit of a stretch as well, since we look at Steam reviews only, but they should correlate with overall reception enough to make this conclusion.

All the rest are so wild speculations, that you could bring some astrology instead of player count and precision will not change much.

P.S. And important thing - while talking about success, I specifically mean commercial success, because that's what affects Firaxis and 2K decisions on how to continue with Civ7. Of course, there could be other definitions of success.

 

[AD1730]

I fail to see how curated ranking data that lacks actual numbers is more valuable than numerous concrete data points, projections based on concrete data points for this game and other games, and statements coming directly from the publisher.

 

[UWHabs]

The game obviously sold well. That's not the point. I struggle to find another example in a major franchise like Civ (I guess other than Age of Empires) where the edition from 15 years ago is getting higher play counts and nearly double the players than the shiny new version. If that's not a disaster, I don't know what is.

It was discussed and I looked into it, and civ 6 took about 2 years, not until the expansions started to roll in, to outpace civ 5 in player counts. No data compared to civ 4 (as most people owned it off Steam). For long running franchises, they often have a lot of people who bought the old versions for cheap who want to keep playing, and aren't interested in spending 100$ on the new game.

Would it be better if the player counts were higher? Yeah, duh. And the devs need to put in work to get people back. But it's too early to call it a disaster - and as stealth keeps pointing out, it's plausible that it's a commercial success still despite the troubles. That may not necessarily be healthy for the franchise long term, as they may not get the rush of sales from people who "trust the devs" if they can't bring it back. But for the immediate future, it's not the end of the world.

 

[trev1972]

Lots of debate about whether this is a success.
Personally i think it is clear the game sold well initially- the franchise has a fantastic reputation and had record pre-orders i believe.

It also seems to me that the number of players engaged with the game has fallen more quickly than with 6 or 5. I can see this affecting DLC sales.

Will it recover? who knows, personally i think it will struggle as the core concepts are so divisive and a turn off to a significant part of the player base. I can't see the developers offering 'classic modes' or the other suggestions myself.

 

[Siptah]

The game obviously sold well. That's not the point. I struggle to find another example in a major franchise like Civ (I guess other than Age of Empires) where the edition from 15 years ago is getting higher play counts and nearly double the players than the shiny new version. If that's not a disaster, I don't know what is.

While I don't have an example (chatgpt claims to know many though, although I don't believe these), I honestly fail to see how this is unexpected for civ 7 and why it qualifies as "disaster" (without a useful measure provided what makes e.g., at least 3 levels of success). Was it successful, as the TT CEO claimed? I don't know, but if it was, why not provide numbers to show? I guess because it was less successful at launch than civ VI.

- It obviously needs work, as did all civ games in the past 15 years at release.
- Compared to civ VI and V, which got many years of content and patches, and have tons of great mods that enhance the game, it is also missing civs (in sheer numbers and individual) and some mechanics.
- it has a lot more competition than earlier civ games had a start. Most notably, this competition includes civ V and VI
- it advertised a core mechanic (civ switching and separate ages) that many people apparently find so appalling just by concept that (as this forums showed) are not even investing the time to find out how it actually works
- Civ 7 charged a very high price, even more than many other titles at release, and much, much more than what you pay for civ V or VI in recent years on sale.
- For some reason, civ 7 still had no sale. After 100 days, civ VI already had two, and aside from higher initial sales, these price reductions surely helped that civ VI floored a bit higher in player count (while the curve itself is similar to that of civ VII). But civ 7 is still full price, hence the pool of owners isn't growing much (while player retention seems to be similar to civ VI and V owners after 100 days, but I can only access rough data on that for the older games). Whether this is because it sold well initially or they don't want to product on sale in current state is unclear. Maybe a combination of both and other factors.

What makes me curious, on the other hand, is why the total number of civ 5-7 players on steam is lower now than some months ago. Civ V seems relatively constant, but civ VI dramatically lost a large amount of daily players, after growing for years. Some of these obviously migrated to 7. But the rest? To consoles? Waiting for civ 7 to become cheaper to change games? Tried 7 and don't play it anymore but also can't go back?

 

[AD1730]

What makes me curious, on the other hand, is why the total number of civ 5-7 players on steam is lower now than some months ago. Civ V seems relatively constant, but civ VI dramatically lost a large amount of daily players, after growing for years. Some of these obviously migrated to 7. But the rest? To consoles? Waiting for civ 7 to become cheaper to change games? Tried 7 and don't play it anymore but also can't go back?

Here's my hypothesis: Many still playing Civ 6 were doing so to prepare themselves/hype themselves up for Civ 7. When Civ 7 disappointed, they moved on from the franchise to other things.

Another contributing factor is the graphical beauty of the map of Civ 7 vs. Civ 6. Once you've had really nice graphics, it's hard to go back.