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Possible coup in Turkey

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by muhtesem insan, Jul 15, 2016.

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  1. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    The info I read said the jets were part of the loyalist faction and were supposed to be targeting helicopters that were carrying troops supporting the coup.
     
  2. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    Given this is Turkey - where conspiracy theories cannot be dismissed out of hand- it does seem hard to discount the possibility that this started out as a false-flag coup attempt by Erdogan that inadvertently escalated into something worse than expected.
    Too many things seems shoddily done for people embarking on an actual coup. The media was allowed to keep reporting though the whole thing contributing to an overall sense of confusion and we had no idea who the leader of the coup was. If I've learned one thing about coup attempts from reading about so many, it is that that the coup leaders need to move fast while the government is off balance. This coup didn't seem to have that.
     
  3. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Chieftain

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    I mean the oddest thing to me and what seems like its the worst planned aspect is the coup was launched when Erdogan was out of the country. I mean that seems like the worst idea ever
     
  4. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    I can see what they were going for. They were probably hoping it would be like when Yanukovich was ousted in Ukraine. If the leader is out of the country when the coup occurs, he isn't able to rally domestic support, no figure for the opposition to rally around (like Borin Yeltsin standing on tanks in the August coup), and no awkward scenes to Erdogan making a last stand in parliament as Turkish soldiers have to storm the place.
     
  5. emzie

    emzie wicked witch of the North

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    Well it seems it's not over. This looks like it could get really messy really quickly. I'm scared.
     
  6. classical_hero

    classical_hero In whom I trust

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    I'm of the opinion that this is a false flag operation. It's just too badly planned for it to be a proper coup. The coup in Egypt was far better planned and was done very quickly, for a reference to a real coup.
     
  7. jackelgull

    jackelgull An aberration of nature

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    True, but I make it a point to never underestimate the breadth of human incompetence.
     
  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Of course Turkey has an unusual history with coups. At one point a major figure in the military asked for the resignations of the entire government, and they resigned. Maybe these guys just thought that it would be that easy. I'm sure that having all of Erdogan's outspoken critics condemn them came as a bit of a surprise.
     
  9. muhtesem insan

    muhtesem insan Amateur Revolutionary

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    Hi guys,
    I am at home safely, and life is relatively normal in Istanbul. I'll have a good sleep and write about my take on the "worst coup attempt ever".
     
  10. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    So what would happen in Turkey if it came out that this was a false-flag coup instigated by Erdogan himself? One would assume it would spark a revolution, but there were a lot of people out in the streets backing Erdogan and fighting against the coup so who knows...
     
  11. red_elk

    red_elk Warlord

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    I very much doubt it. And though I have no sympathy for Erdogan, we yet know nothing about the military guys who want to replace him, to assume they will be "better" in any sense.

    If you look at history of military coups, absolutely all of them look badly planned. Unless they were successful, of course.
     
  12. Verbose

    Verbose Chieftain

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    Turkey has two political bad habits to kick in order to progress — military coups and Strong Men.

    What this seems to signify is a splintering of the army as a political force. It now seems about as divided as Turkish society in general, reflecting it. Which is development of a kind — when the army is no longer some kind of entity to itself, outside and above the rest of society. That was the basis for the former coups. This might be part of the process of the army and its role in Turkish society changing — which is necessary, but risky, like all change.

    What seems less certain is if Turkey migh move even and inch closer to getting rid of Strong Men in politics? Might as well go the other way.

    But Occam says this was simply a bad idea, badly executed, by a clique within the armed forces badly informed and "unlucky when thinking". Which isn't a first, since those tend to fail abjectly anyway.
     
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    As someone already wrote, the group carrying out the coup seems to have lacked the manpower to start with.

    That they chose not to target Erdogan specifically shows that the bet was on taking power with the least amount of conflict. Had the government lost its nerve and fled the rest of the military would be expected to join in, I guess. Avoiding dramatic scenes would make that easier.

    The government didn't fold, and the rest of the military remained neutral rather than join the coup. This, and the lack of announcement of a political agenda, also points at it being done by a small group - they probably wanted to be able to negotiate the agenda in order to get more senior figures to join. But it wasn't a false flag operation - people don't get themselves killed for that. Killing others, sure, but not getting killed.

    The coup was weak and failed. The government was also weak and at a point became desperate - the cautions diplomatic reactions during the night (of course this morning everyone backs Erdogan) and the inactivity of the bulk of the armed forces shows that. This means further instability in Turkey, and especially within the military. The government must move to replace officers, but things are strained as they are...
     
  14. Yeekim

    Yeekim Warlord

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    "2nd largest NATO military too incompetent to even execute a coup!" More after 19.00
     
  15. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Erdo now claimed that this coup was 'a gift from god', cause now he can 'fight our enemies from within'. Uh-huh :shake:

    I am sceptical on whether this was merely very poor planning. Reminds of the analogous (and known to be a false flag) Ergenekon conspiracy/purge a few years back.

    By the way, am i the only one wondering what posts r16 will produce when he resurfaces? :D
     
  16. dutchfire

    dutchfire Moderator Moderator

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    #hottakes

    Broad popular support saved the day for Erdogan.

    Police and 'security forces' are loyal to Erdogan and sufficiently armed to pose serious problems for small army units. (edit: the large number of military casualties is a testimony to that)

    Execution of the coup was not very professional. The several hours it took from the first rumours to taking the TV stations and so on, is just too long in this fast-moving world. Not cutting power, telephone, internet and TV allowed the government to quickly organize.

    The coup seemed thinly staffed, evidenced by the fact that they were driven out of the TV station.

    I don't think it is a false flag operation. But Erdogan is quickly using it to his advantage, blaming all of his political opponents. Reminds me of the Reichstag fire. Expect major purges of the military and other Erdogan opponents, that would make Stalin proud.

    All foreign ministers were just slow enough in endorsing Erdogan to show that they would not have shed had tear, had this coup worked.
     
  17. muhtesem insan

    muhtesem insan Amateur Revolutionary

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    1) I do not think this was a false flag operation, for two reasons. Firstly, Erdogan do not need he has absolute power right now; secondly he wouldn't risk such a move which could ignite a real coup.
    2) All evidence points to a group of couple hundred Gülen Movement members. So this explains lack of support from -still- mostly kemalist military.
    3) According to a reputable journalist, Ahmet Şık -whom i trust- most of the members of the coup group was supposed to be arrested at 4 am this morning. They learned them yesterday and executed their plan in progress prematurely. Which explain all the stupidities during the attempt.
    4) Erdoğan was not out of country but in vacation in Turkey. Some 40 commandos are sent to capture him, and stormed the hotel he stayed, but they were too late he was already in te air by then. So the success of the coup mostly dependent on capturing Erdoğan, which kind of make sense since their attemp was a desperate one if Ahmet Şık's intel is correct. (very similar to 20 July coup Attempt)
    5) AKP used mosques to mobilize its supporters. They played call to prayer with a special call which we call Sala in turkey till morning continously, apparently that meant call for Jihad. Also some imams used mosque speakers to call people to get out and resist.
    6) Overwhelming majority of military was not involved in coup attempt but they were not mobilized to crush the attempt also. I am not sure if this were a concious decision by government or they just didn't react to see which side will prevail. (If it is the former i think it's unexpectedly rational and smart decision by erdoğan)
    7) According to Mayor of Ankara (which can not be trusted in any matter) Social Media outage at the begining of the attempt was implemented by government but he advised to lift it so people can get organised.
    8) Related to previous point, the coup did not seize the TİB(Presidency of Telecommunication, Communication) which controls all telecommunication of Turkey. Which is the most stupid decision they could make.
    9) I had a gut feeling that there is preparation for a coup in Turkey for a while and i belive this is not it. So I still expect a coup d'état in turkey in the coming months but this time a proper one.
     
  18. Gucumatz

    Gucumatz JS, secretly Rod Serling

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    Whats with the purging of judges that Erdogan is promising? Surely they didn't have any role in this coup attempt
     
  19. muhtesem insan

    muhtesem insan Amateur Revolutionary

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    Gülen Movement is well orginised in Judiciary so he's claiming to purge Gülenist judges.
     
  20. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    What makes you think there will be another one? Security will be up and Erdogan will be purging anyone who doesn't like him.
     
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