Predict the Electoral College

GoodEnoughForMe

GoodEnoughForMe

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We have a Predictions thread, but it's a little broad-based and the like. Use this thread to simply post your predicted Electoral College map and discuss why you chose what you did, and ****-talk other people's maps.

There is one Monday left of last second polling data but we're pretty close at this point.

Everyone who gets the map correct wins a free "wow sick job dude" thought in my brain.

http://www.270towin.com

Simply fill in the states as you think and then share your map.

Muchas gracias.
 
Here you go. I used the solid/likely/lean color scheme but no tossups. I now think that NC and FL are marginally more likely to go Democrat than Republican based on early voting data, but it's close.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/KjEzn

Spoiler map :
35GN1DX.png
 
I think the election is going to be a lot closer than you guys think. I just did a simple who will win what state map (so no solid/likely/lean or tossups) using a combination of both recent polling data and historical voting trends in the last four presidential elections. I have Clinton winning 298 to 240.

Spoiler My Election Map :
e3v7g.png
 
Here are my current leans map (I'm confident none of the deep blue or deep red states will flip) and my general feeling map that I've been updating throughout the election (which is based on polls plus guts, and which contains tossups)

Spoiler maps :

jK8wx.png


7zrOJ.png

 
in NC and FL obama did +1-2 on election day than poll average and romney did 0.5-1 worse. Nationally that's kind of true too. I think clinton will hold florida and can gain NC.

edit- forgot alaska, whatever. is solid R.

Spoiler :


VN2nY.png
 
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I've departed from 538 in only three respects - Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, each of which they have within a percentage point. This is largely due to apparent Democratic early voting confidence, which may not have been taken into account by the polls. It should be taken into account by the polls, but the reports from Nevada in particular don't really seem to line up with what the polls suggest.

So that's 322-216 for Clinton.

Spoiler :
vxgpY.png


Scarily, if the map remains as it is, then Silver will be projecting a 272-266 race, which is far too close for comfort. New Hampshire would then win it for Trump.*

*Actually, the Democrats just went back in front. So make that 278-260.
 
Commodore said:
I think the election is going to be a lot closer than you guys think. I just did a simple who will win what state map (so no solid/likely/lean or tossups) using a combination of both recent polling data and historical voting trends in the last four presidential elections. I have Clinton winning 298 to 240.

Spoiler My Election Map :
e3v7g.png
Click to expand...


We differ on three states.

Overall I think the silent Clinton voters far outnumber the silent Trumps. Clintons adds are devastating...primarily because Trump is awful. Add in a stronger ground game and I'm pushing all the chips in Clintons camp.

The three we differ, ordered by confidence :

NH - Going with history.
OH - Polls have been pretty consistent for Trump. I'm banking on no Kasich plus late Clinton campaign push tips the scales.
NC - Favors Trump, I'm hoping that like Colorado, migration tips the state permanently.

Wouldn't be shocked if all three tilt to Trump, but I'm optimistic that the same people who voted for Obama will be revolted by Trump.
 
I just want the swing states in the East to fall to Clinton early. That way I can go to bed.
 
All of the Deep South for Clinton but none of the West Coast? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see that happen, but I'm curious what the rationale is.

Here's mine:

Spoiler :
270.png~original


Predicted mainly based on optimism that Trump's appeal is more limited than polling suggests, and that there is high turnout among Democrats, who I do think have unusually high motivation to vote this time around (I've heard far more talk about politics from young people around my age than in 2012, for what it's worth, and it's all thanks to - but not in support of - Donald). I'm also counting on considerable numbers of Ohio Republicans sufficiently favoring Kasich over Trump to either not vote for President, or to vote third-party instead... and I've heard some of my most Republican friends say they're doing just that (usually supporting Johnson), so I think it's possible.

In an effort to win praise from GoodEnoughForMe and because there's still an outside chance of it, I've put Utah as tan, for McMullin. Unlikely, but he's done surprisingly well there and a quarter of Utahans said they were not sure in the latest poll.
 
My map is the same as Camikaze's. Among the ones I regard as true tossups, I think Clinton gets NH, NC, NV and FL, but Trump gets OH and IA. No one flips anything. Clinton doesn't get GA or AZ. Trump doesn't get MI or MN. 322-216.
 
I predict that there will be more faithless electors than in the past several election cycles.

(Here in Georgia, one of the electoral college delegates pledged to support Trump publicly announced more than 3 months ago that he would never actually vote for Trump and intends to write-in someone else for the top slot. Note that in Georgia, there are no penalties whatsoever for faithless electors. The elector who had promised to not to vote Trump is a Vietnamese immigrant who has been a staunch Republican for decades but does not like the direction the party has been heading on the issue of immigration.)


I'm not expecting but kind of hoping that neither candidate gets any Georgia electoral college delegates though; I think that may be possible because Georgia requires a runoff election when a candidate does not receive an absolute majority, but the date for the Federal runoff election this cycle is scheduled for the week after the Presidential Inauguration Day.
 
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FWIW, 538 now has Clinton ahead in Maine's 2nd congressional district - which is now the only difference with the map favoured by Boots, Gori & I.
 
whyidie said:
We differ on three states.

Overall I think the silent Clinton voters far outnumber the silent Trumps. Clintons adds are devastating...primarily because Trump is awful. Add in a stronger ground game and I'm pushing all the chips in Clintons camp.

The three we differ, ordered by confidence :

NH - Going with history.
OH - Polls have been pretty consistent for Trump. I'm banking on no Kasich plus late Clinton campaign push tips the scales.
NC - Favors Trump, I'm hoping that like Colorado, migration tips the state permanently.

Wouldn't be shocked if all three tilt to Trump, but I'm optimistic that the same people who voted for Obama will be revolted by Trump.
Click to expand...

The reason I gave NH to Trump despite their voting history is NH has been polling in favor of Trump pretty consistently throughout this election cycle. I gave Ohio to Trump because I live in Cincinnati and this city is very much in favor of Trump. Historically, whoever wins Cincinnati, usually goes on to win the whole state. That's why candidates that campaign in Ohio usually do it either in Cincinnati or somewhere close to Cincinnati. NC goes to Trump simply because he has both voting history and current polling on his side. NC might flip sometime in the very near future, but I don't think it will be in this election.
 
NC is proving to be quite a story. The media and lawyers are coming out with stories of black voter suppression, and it's possible those backfire and produce really high black voter turnouts on Election Day. Early voting might not be a good indicator there, because if the Republican-controlled electoral board had their way, there would not even be early voting. The court ordered NC to reinstate it. So they have bare-minimum early voting now. Charlotte had one early voting station. See? They're not in contempt. Plus the story in Beaufort might produce 4,000 voters; all ticked off, and none of whom got to early vote.

In the end, I don't think NC gets decided by the voters. It's who wins the election-manipulating contest.
 
MagisterCultuum said:
I predict that there will be more faithless electors than in the past several election cycles.

(Here in Georgia, one of the electoral college delegates pledged to support Trump publicly announced more than 3 months ago that he would never actually vote for Trump and intends to write-in someone else for the top slot.)
Click to expand...
According to the 538 podcast a Washington elector (and iirc former Sanders supporter) has already vowed to vote Trump no matter what. And apparently Washington has a faithless elector law that stipulates a 1000 dollar (!) fine for doing so.

I don't get how a political system can treat voter disenfranchisement so leniently.

On topic, I think Camikaze's map is the likely outcome, I can't really be any more optimistic than that. Onejayhawk basically has Clinton's worst case outcome that is still realistic.
 
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