Are you, perchance, looking at the odds for a battle more than one tile away? Because if you move a unit from a stack to a different tile before attacking, it will lose its aid bonuses, and thus will have much lower odds. Yes, I noticed that too recently, and that should (and will) indeed be fixed. Well... Having recently been to Alsace and Lorraine, I must say that Germans had little trouble with them, especially Alsatians, who were half-Germanized anyway. Nevertheless, I understand your point. That's not, of course, the fault of our mod, that's how it works in vanilla Civ 4, but this might probably be looked at.