Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Pangur Bán]

The referendum is a very exiting time politically. People are becoming political again, it's very enjoyable to see and is a great thing for democracy. It's also great to see that people are waking up to how bad Britain really is for Scotland. Whether they vote yes this time or not, I get the feeling that London's days are numbered up here.

 

[Phrossack]

If Scotland goes, what will this mean for British politics? Just how much would the Tories, the BNP, and UKIP dominate?

 

[Traitorfish]

The BNP are currently struggling to dominate the BNP, so I wouldn't overstate their menace.

 

[Phrossack]

The BNP are currently struggling to dominate the BNP, so I wouldn't overstate their menace.

Alright, but how right-wing would Britain be without the Scottish vote?

 

[Antilogic]

So, this is only a few months away. Have there been any notable speeches, or are the people generally moving towards one position on independence?

 

[Traitorfish]

Alright, but how right-wing would Britain be without the Scottish vote?

(I actually though somebody better at the numbers than me would have answered this by now, hence my glib one-liner, but I'll give it a shot...)

It's hard to say, exactly, because independence would shake things up on both sides of the border. At present, it would allow the Tories to govern without the coalition, but they're already struggling to maintain the balance between right-wing voter base and centre-right swing-voters, and if Cameron turns out to be the man who loses the Union, the Tories are either going to lose a big part of that right-wing vote to UKIP or have to swing so far right in compensation that they'll lose the centre-right, so Labour-LibDem coalitions become a strong possibility. The Tories could rebound, wouldn't be the first time, but it's not a given, and it might be that either the LibDems cement themselves as centrist king-makers or UKIP emerge as a permanent right-of-Conservative force. This will create a space for Labour to rebound South of the border, and it has to be remembered that they've managed it before, that in 1997 and 2001 they would have gained a clear majority without a single Scottish seat. But that's going to mean a working class constituency which they have long neglected, and I'm not sure that the Labour leadership have the imagination or will to achieve that.

So, this is only a few months away. Have there been any notable speeches, or are the people generally moving towards one position on independence?

It's still quite uncertain. The firm "Yes" vote has grown to meet firm "No" vote, but they still represent maybe half of the population Anecdotally, I know a lot of people with no particular ideological investment in nationalism moving in that direction, but these are also people of a left-wing bent, which obviously has an influence on their thinking.

I think that the Yes campaign are holding their cards close to their chest, because they realise that their support base isn't quite strong enough to spend them all at once and march to victory. (And, honestly, even though I'm generally pro-independence, I'm concerned that this is somewhat anti-democratic in spirit, as if they don't feel that they can rely on the electorate to come to come to make the right decision and stick to it, but rather have to wait until mood swings in a certain direction and then shout "No takesies-backsies!".) Most of the SNP's actual program is available in the Nov. 2013 paper "Soctland's Future", but it's six-hundred pages long and very technical, so people have mostly been able to interpret it as "we have a plan!", "there is no plan!" or "we're planning what now?" depending on where they stood to begin with.

If the Better Together campaign have any cards left, they're holding them under the table and possibly down their trousers, because I haven't heard any really coherent noise for them in a while. It's a very reactive campaign, so far, waiting for the Yes campaign to say something and rebutting, but not really offering anything of their own. Mostly, they seem to be putting their faith in the weight of historical inertia, that because they believe change is difficult and scary, everybody else does too. And, while most people might be cautious, Pangur's right that the status quo cannot continue indefinitely. Ironically, their very faith in "No" the default option means that they can't actually win this debate, only suspend defeat until a later date.

 

[Silurian]

UKIP is likely to do very well in the European elections on 22 May. I would think that this will give help the Yes vote in Scotland. Scotland is more pro - EU than England so some Scots may vote for independence so they can stay in the EU. It will also be a sign that England is moving to the right and so away from Scotland.

The slowly improving economy could also give a boost to the Conservatives in the opinion polls. This would also give a boost to the Yes vote as people may not want to put up with another five years of Conservative rule if Scotland was to stay in the UK.

From The Guardian

But a European election poll for the Sunday Times giving Ukip a three-point lead suggests scandals are not causing harm. The poll was conducted at the end of last week, after a controversy over a racist local government candidate, Andre Lampitt, and questions raised by the Times over party leader Nigel Farage's office expenses. The YouGov survey put Ukip support at 31%, ahead of Labour on 28%, the Conservatives on 19% and the Lib Dems on 9%. Of 16 European election polls conducted this year, this is only the second showing Ukip ahead, and the first showing a lead higher than two points.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...in-european-elections-despite-racism-scandals

The Conservatives have promised a referendum to decide the UKs position in the EU in 2017.

From The Telegraph.

David Cameron threatens to resign without 2017 EU vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...threatens-to-resign-without-2017-EU-vote.html

But if there is a Yes vote on 18 September following a strong UKIP vote in the EU elections how long will Cameron last.


From The Mail

David Cameron will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence, according to some Tories amid growing fears that the Yes campaign could win this autumn’s referendum.
One senior Conservative said Mr Cameron would ‘go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union’ and would have no choice but to quit Downing Street.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sign-Scottish-independence.html#ixzz30JCldH8w

If Cameron goes in the Autumn will the Coalition collapse and force a general election in late October or November. If that happens I could see the Conservatives and Libdems would lose seats and UKIP getting some MPs for the first time. Labour would gain seats but they may not get enough to form a government without an outright majority. Labour could well be unofficially supported by the SNP MPs so may well be able to hold until an election at Scottish Independence.

Following defeat the Conservatives could well be in turmoil and could well be seen as the Labour party was in the early 80s. I would not be surprised if some MPs defect to UKIP and the Libdems.

By the time of the general election at Scottish Independence the economy is likely to have improved further which Labour will be able to take credit for, plus the Conservative will still be taking the blame for losing Scotland, so Labour may be able to improve their position to a small majority.

 

[Pangur Bán]

So, this is only a few months away. Have there been any notable speeches, or are the people generally moving towards one position on independence?

The media in Scotland is almost entirely either controlled by London or is derivative thereof, meaning that the British establishment get to set the agenda most of the time and that few Scots have a national voice in the debate. But one of the nice things is the growth of grassroots activism, social media, and citizen journalism such as that provided by Stuart Campbell of Wings over Scotland, Bella Caledonia, Newsnet Scotland and so forth. Initially London dictated the entire press agenda, but the campaign has been long enough to allow some subversion, and autonomous interests in Scottish society are increasingly having an independent voice. I think this process is irreversible.

If Scotland goes, what will this mean for British politics? Just how much would the Tories, the BNP, and UKIP dominate?

Alright, but how right-wing would Britain be without the Scottish vote?

The centre of gravity would probably become a little more right wing in the short term, but Scotland doesn't have a large enough population to make a major direct difference. One argument, that of Billy Bragg et al, is that the Scots could set an example of 'progressiveness' ... i.e. the assumption is that the English are so insular that Scandinavian and like counter-examples have no effect on domestic ideology, but the Scots would.

One of the things it might do is get rid of the bs that Englishness and Britishness are distinct national identities. This would allow the nationalist right in England to have a much more coherent agenda, though it must be remembered that Wales and N. Ireland would still be ruled by England.

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

I voted yes, not in Scotland though. I doubt that Scottish independence will be possible until Wales gains its independence first. It will be a chain reaction from there.

 

[Tee Kay]

I voted yes, not in Scotland though. I doubt that Scottish independence will be possible until Wales gains its independence first. It will be a chain reaction from there.

Why? Welsh independence movement is nowhere near as strong as the Scottish.

 

[Tahuti]

Why? Welsh independence movement is nowhere near as strong as the Scottish.

Do you think Welsh nationalism and Irish Republicanism will be strengthened if Scotland secedes?

 

[Tee Kay]

For Wales... if it leads to a perceived English overdominance of the country we might see something.

Not going to comment on Northern Ireland.

 

[Traitorfish]

The analogy between Welsh and Scottish is overplayed, I think. They're really two different traditions with different concerns; the similarities don't amount to much more than being "Celtic", which is to say, being not-English. Scottish nationalism is basically civic, proceeding from the existence of distinct Scottish institutions, and concerns for language, culture, etc. are expressed within those terms. Wales doesn't have the same range of institutions, and they're not as distinct, autonomous or entrenched, so any Welsh national project is concerned primarily with developing such institutions, rather than with achieving independence.

 

[Kyriakos]

^Going by some stories by Machen (himself a Welsh author who wrote in english in the early 20th century) it seems that in the countryside most of the people of Wales did not even speak English.

Was non-English language common to a similar degree in early 20th century Scotland? (btw which language would they use?).

 

[Traitorfish]

Most of the Highlands and Isles continued to speak Gaelic well into the twentieth century, yes. It's only really during the course of the twentieth century that it's died off, at least up along the West coast. I knew a guy from Lewis whose grandparents were native speakers, whose mother was raised by bilingual, but who himself had only learned it as a second language. (This map gives a rough idea of how it's retreated.) Most would have been bilingual with English by the 20th century, though, especially as there was little in the way of mass-media catering to Gaelic-speakers.

A lot of the Lowlands would have continued to speak Scots, too, although there's always the debate as to whether that constitute a distinct language, and more specifically the debate as to whether a given person's speech represents Scots or vernacular Scottish English.

 

[Kyriakos]

^Interesting..Thanks

 

[Pangur Bán]

There are still native Gaelic speakers in and around Embo in Sutherland, and in Badenoch ... who speak their local dialect. Last speakers of the language of the kingdom of Alba. The rest are Hebrideans!

 

[ParkCungHee]

Do you think Welsh nationalism and Irish Republicanism will be strengthened if Scotland secedes?

I don't think it will matter all that much for Republicanism. It WILL confuse the hell out of the Unionists though.

 

[Quackers]

Did anybody watch the Salmond Vs Darling debate?

Apparently Salmond got destroyed. I wonder if this will make any difference.

 

[bhsup]

I've watched the intro ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFn0L6e15oc ) and am waiting for the rest to upload.

So um... this is interesting.

LASGOW Scotland (Reuters) - Support for Scotland to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom has risen to 40 percent, according to one opinion poll published on Tuesday, as nationalist leader Alex Salmond headed into a U.S.-style television debate on secession.

Scotland votes in a Sept. 18 referendum on whether to end its 307-year union with England, though some polls suggest that as many as a quarter of Scotland's 4 million voters remain undecided.

Holy Moses! 40% for already soi all they have to do is swing over another 11% from the undecided voters... less than half. This might actually happen.

Though... Scotland has oil, and if it left the UK it wouldn't be like we'd be invading Mummy if we decided we wanted it. Scotland would make a lovely State. And there is already precedent for using its legal system in America, like when Sen. Spectre voted "Not proven therefore not guilty" during Clinton's impeachment trial.