Scientists predict 'millenium winter'......

carlosMM

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...NOT!

Here's a lesson on how journalism should not, but does work. And how certain oh-so-honest, oh-so-skeptical 'skeptics' will gulp down anything that fits their dishonest agenda.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/12/coldest-winter-in-1000-years-cometh-–-not/

Coldest Winter in 1000 Years Cometh – not.

This claim circulates in the internet and in many mainstream media as well: Scientists have allegedly predicted the coldest winter in 1,000 years for Europe. What is behind it? Nothing – no scientist has predicted anything like it. A Polish tabloid made up the story. An interesting lesson about today´s media.

By Stefan Rahmstorf and Olivia Serdeczny

Spoiler :
We had read about it a few times and last Wednesday even were asked by German TV about the allegedly coldest winter in 1000 years, predicted by (depending on the source) Polish or Russian climatologists or meteorologists. Reason enough for us to take a closer look at the story behind the story.

It did not take much googling to find the source: various articles on the internet name the Polish scientist Michał Kowalewski, sometimes in the Russian spelling version of Mikhail Kovalevski. A few clicks later we arrive at the original article with Kowalewski´s quotes. Except that Kowalewski does not predict a record winter there – the “millennium winter” merely appears in the headline. A closer reading of the article quickly reveals: the quotes were answers to questions concerning the role of the Gulf Stream for Europe´s climate. The frosty temperatures are hypothetical effects of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream – which, as Kowalewski points out, can be pretty much ruled out.

We asked Kowalewski for his comments on the media coverage and promptly got his answer in an email from Warsaw:

The reports in some media are absolutely unbelievable. A journalist who interviewed me for radio had asked me about the theoretical climatic effects of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream. I answered that this purely hypothetic scenario would lead to much colder winters in Poland. A few days later I found on the internet the article of a journalist who mixed his own words with some of my quotes without their context so well that a completely new meaning came out. An absolutely absurd thesis. My quotes as such are correct, so I was not able to demand a correction.​
It’s an interesting and insightful tale how this story spread. Here is a brief chronology:

September, 10. Michał Kowalewski is interviewed by the Polish radio station tok.fm. The same day the website of a Polish tabloid, Gazeta.pl, publishes an article with the headline of a „millennium record winter“ („once-in-a-millennium winter“). A certain Gianluigi Zangari is being quoted at the outset. He has apparently claimed to have found a slow-down of the Gulf Stream in satellite data, which he attributes to the BP oil spill (we did not follow this bizarre claim to the source). Subsequently Kowalewski´s radio interview is brought in – in order to explain the Gulf Stream and its effects on climate in general.

September, 12. „Fakt“, a Polish tabloid, writes „Millennium Winter is Coming!“ Again the BP oil spill is blamed. This time, however, without any reference to Zangari, so readers could easily be left with the impression that this is Kowalewski´s idea.

September, 22. The Voice of Russia reports that the Polish scientist „Mikhail Kovalevski“ is worried about the Gulf Stream breaking down, which Russian scientists counter as being an exaggeration.

Oktober, 4. The Russian RT News Service predicts „The coldest winter in 1.000 years“. Which is explained by the Gulf Stream having slowed down by half. RT refers to Polish scientists: “Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe”. This is where the Russian Vadim Zavotschenkow enters the scene. However, he mentions merely a cold winter: “Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely”.

Oktober, 4. The “climate sceptics” website wattsupwiththat, noted for their false reports, takes up the RT piece, presents it together with The Voice of Russia and mentions „Mikhail Kovalevski“. Watts seems to be the bridge for the story´s crossing into the western media. Is it just coincidence that the „record cold winter“ story nicely suits the political agenda of the climate sceptics?

From then on, the story is repeated on many other European media, including serious newspapers and television.

It is staggering how one journalist just copied another, sometimes even embellishing the story, without ever bothering to check the source or ask Kowalewski himself. It took us less than ten minutes of googling to get serious doubts about whether this story was real. The familiar pattern of „Chinese whispers“ emerges here once again – the same that widely spread the false whatevergate-stories.

But the often self-righteous free western press can actually learn a lesson from its Chinese counterpart in this case. The Chinese news agency Xinhua checked the story and issued the following on October, 20.:

A forecast attributed to Polish scientists of the coldest European winter in 1,000 years has drawn plenty of media attention recently but investigations by Xinhua reporters have cast doubts on its veracity.

p.s. There are, by the way, scientifically well-founded attempts to explain the currently cold weather in Europe. The basic check for seriousness: a peer-reviewed journal source is provided, and according to Google Scholar the author has a decent publication record. A millennium-record-winter, however, is not being predicted there.

p.p.s. Should your newspaper have also reported this turkey, feel free to write a polite letter to the to editors asking for a correction. It is only if readers demand published information to be verified (or if needed corrected) that something will change to the better.

To begin with, I am not surprised that this nonsense originated outside Western Europe, Far East and South America. The former Soviet Union produces a lot of weird, freaky news reports, and some scientists there say the weirdest things. The US and Australia produce a lot of weird stuff on climate because of the entreched Climate Wars, in Africa and the Middle East few people care.

I am even less surprised that it Andy Watts and his crew of liars (one example behind the link) who again embellished the story, stood it on its head and passed it on. They have an agenda, the report fits - hey, who cares about fact checking and logical consistency? :crazyeye:
 
What was the coldest winter on record then? The year without a summer?
 
I always adhere by the principle "peer-reviewed paper or get the hell out" when it comes to science reporting. It works most of the time.
 
What was the coldest winter on record then? The year without a summer?

It was the southern hemisphere winter of 1983. The Vostok Station in Antarctica recorded a temperature of −89.2 °C (that would be −128.6 °F for those of us in the civilized realms.) Course, it was commie station, so we can only hope they were using East German equipment, else no promises on the accuracy or precision of the measurement.
 
It was the southern hemisphere winter of 1983. The Vostok Station in Antarctica recorded a temperature of −89.2 °C (that would be −128.6 °F for those of us in the civilized realms.) Course, it was commie station, so we can only hope they were using East German equipment, else no promises on the accuracy or precision of the measurement.

Coldest absolute temperature isn't the same as the coldest season.
 
I'd never even heard about this until today, and the only place I could find it widely broadcast on was some Russian propaganda network.
 
Two days ago I read in the paper that here in Berlin .. was the coldest "december beginning in 80 years". we had already -14°
 
Two days ago I read in the paper that here in Berlin .. was the coldest "december beginning in 80 years". we had already -14°
yeah, continues right where last winter ended - negative artic circ gives us an northern US cold - and the rest of the world was hot, hot, hot. El Nina now cools things down quite a bit, AFAIK this year will not make hottest on record for global average, but 'only' second place.
 
well, everyone just copy pasting each other's articles (and maybe badly translate them ) seems to be what is called journalism these days.
 
This July I lived through the warmest summer in Japan in 150 years.

This fall I lived through the coldest November in Norway in 100 years.

And fewer and fewer people believe the climate is getting more erratic.

Good thing I don't own property in Bangladesh or the Maldives...
 
Last November apparently was the darkest November in Belgian history since 1922, and the darkest autumn since 1964. 23 hours net in November, not sure anymore about autumn. We're a pretty gloomy country to begin with, but even this is abnormal.

Had some cold temperatures last week, but it's coming back up now.. Belgium'll be around the freezing point for the coming week according to predictions.

That having been said though, I'm not sure if the climate erraticity theory is correct. After all, according to the weather data I've read, there are some pretty exceptional results in certain fields, but then in other fields most seasons and months are very, very average. You might have an abnormally hot or cold month, but if the cloudiness, precipitation, and rainy days stay the same, is it really that erratic?
 
It is very warm for the time of year in Macedonia. Up in the 20s °C

A man passes along a narrow path by Treska River in Matka canyon, just west of Skopje, Macedonia, Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2010. Unusually warm weather for this period and temperatures unlike November are recorded in this Balkan country

I have never walked up there, better to have a beer at the cafe.

http://www.daylife.com/photo/0fbB74y2eR86Y?q=Macedonia
 
Here in Northern Michigan, we get snow in May. Once, we had snow on July 4th, not sure how that happened, but I wasn't alive.
 
Whereabouts? I was led to believe that my very hot experience in Kyushu was rather normal.
Really? I was in Tokyo (You were in or around Osaka IIRC?) and got comments from several Japanese friends that this was the warmest summer in 100 / 150 / 200 years. Since I heard different numbers, I'm could be a bit skeptical to the actual claim, but I at least understood that it was hotter than usual.
 
That having been said though, I'm not sure if the climate erraticity theory is correct. After all, according to the weather data I've read, there are some pretty exceptional results in certain fields, but then in other fields most seasons and months are very, very average. You might have an abnormally hot or cold month, but if the cloudiness, precipitation, and rainy days stay the same, is it really that erratic?

I'm almost certain that it's all a result of cherry picking the data in order to create public alarm. With so many metrics to choose from: coldest or hottest average temperature of any one of 12 months, any one of 4 seasons, now throw in darkest too, and then consider lowest minimum temperatures, or maximum temperatures, and the highest also, for all these time intervals. And you also have the coldest day of the year, coldest day of month x, warmest day, etc.
Then do this exercise for each country, each continent, each ocean, each geographical region, etc.

I'll bet that, statistically, it's easy to find one or more new "records" every year, with so many things to choose from.
 
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