I would do trades like this: Astronomy to Genghis for philosophy+drama+560g+WM. Theology to Washington for 40g. That will hopefully get him up to cautious. Then he should sell engineering for optics and paper. Rice from Isa for sheep (rice is 2 health - sheep only 1). Research then to liberalism, but stop 1 turn before researching it and reevaluate. All techs Isa is missing for war with Mehmed+20g. Look if this gets new trade options. Next turn look if Hannibal gives something for Drama.