SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[DanF5771]

I tested religion spreading with no religion in the city... 106 successes out of 106 attempts. I think it is safe to assume it is 100%.

Yes, from CvUnit::spread() we can caclulate the following odds:



I'm not 100% convinced yet of the value of a City-gift for Toku. All AP (and UN) resolutions require a minimum of 3 members (doesn't matter whether they are full members or only voting members). So for force-peace or force-war resolutions with regards to Toku we'd need a Hindu spread to Hammu or Shaka (or somebody else) first.

In the long run I don't think Toku is a good candidate for becoming a true friend. We can't liberate new cities (we'd need to conquer Osaka or Tokyo), have border pressure problems and are a valid land target for him. The last fact suggests the repetition of our previous tactic -- provoke him to plot a total war against us, fight defensively with better war success and get more techs from him by threat advantage in peace deals.

 

[mabraham]

I'm not 100% convinced yet of the value of a City-gift for Toku. All AP (and UN) resolutions require a minimum of 3 members (doesn't matter whether they are full members or only voting members). So for force-peace or force-war resolutions with regards to Toku we'd need a Hindu spread to Hammu or Shaka (or somebody else) first.

OK well we'll get some info T95 about what the situation is really like before we're committed to anything.

In the long run I don't think Toku is a good candidate for becoming a true friend. We can't liberate new cities (we'd need to conquer Osaka or Tokyo), have border pressure problems and are a valid land target for him. The last fact suggests the repetition of our previous tactic -- provoke him to plot a total war against us, fight defensively with better war success and get more techs from him by threat advantage in peace deals.

Agreed. The primary value of the technique (as I see it) is a cheap way to get a Full Member of the AP (espionage flip in his city with Hinduism near our capital) in time for a vote, so that we can get OB with the other non-full members so that we can start mass-converting someone to be our voting ally, and someone to be our vote opponent. If the whole world are non-Hindu Gawas, then we're going to struggle to get any to +5 Pleased to get OB any other way. Shared war and +4 fair trade doesn't offset -2 religion. I'm not worried by the fact that we will not be able to order an AP-dogpile against him if he has a Hindu city. We'll have other war opponents for AP-dogpile diplo maneuvers.

 

[mabraham]

I haven't seen much feedback on the updated PPP (or at least any that matters much before the likely T95 pause), so I'm going to take silence as acquiescence. I plan to start play in 9-10 hours from this post.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

I was hoping to run the PPP in the test game, but didn't have time unfortunately. I'm at work now, and won't be near my home PC till the playtime.

Anyway, I wanted to say I agree on the PPP.

May the force be with you .

 

[bcool]

Yes, from CvUnit::spread() we can caclulate the following odds:

View attachment 317833

I'm not 100% convinced yet of the value of a City-gift for Toku. All AP (and UN) resolutions require a minimum of 3 members (doesn't matter whether they are full members or only voting members). So for force-peace or force-war resolutions with regards to Toku we'd need a Hindu spread to Hammu or Shaka (or somebody else) first.

In the long run I don't think Toku is a good candidate for becoming a true friend. We can't liberate new cities (we'd need to conquer Osaka or Tokyo), have border pressure problems and are a valid land target for him. The last fact suggests the repetition of our previous tactic -- provoke him to plot a total war against us, fight defensively with better war success and get more techs from him by threat advantage in peace deals.

There very well might be 3 members for all we know (random spread?). Plus fighting Toku when he has catapults is a very different story. I don't think we are going to have nearly the same success against him if he brings a decent number of catapults. (sadly we do know there has been no spread until now since we are only getting 5 gold from Kashi, but maybe in the 15 turns we have between the now and the first vote there might be some spread to another AI)

I think we want to do everything we can to avoid a war with him until we have something that could handle a catapult army.

 

[bcool]

If Toku has construction, maybe we should research it ourselves?

If Toku comes with 3 catapults 5 axes and 2 spears/archers what would we do?
We would eventually lose Sheeptown no?

If we had some sacrificial catapults we could defend against it, but without catapults our losses would be quite heavy.

 

[DanF5771]

Theocracy Crossbows? We need to know about Iron soon.

We might try a GG-Drill4 Super-Defender on the forest 2S2E of SheepTown, perhaps in a Fort. Needs some testing.

Overall I'm rather reluctant to invest anything in our relations with Toku (bonuses, Settler, Missionary).

I'd rather invest in Hammu, we still have 2 spots to liberate cities and that way we can make him a voting member directly. We are not a land target for him and until now there is no border pressure. It is more likely that Hindu spontaneously spreads to Toku than to Hammu.

I think the vote for Open Borders won't come up, if we are at war with a member.

We could get peace with Hammu by threatening Nippur with an Axe landed from a Galley. He doesn't endanger any of our cities.

Edit: Or we just move an Axe to the Wheat over land...

 

[DanF5771]

I count 6 forests that can be chopped for Delhi, 4*30 in Delhi's BFC and 2*24 in it's 3rd ring. Don't we want to try to get the AP T94 or would that jumble worker management too much? Are any worries regarding AP finish dates completely unfounded?

Sorry to come up with these 'grumblings' so late, mabraham, didn't have any civ-time over the week end.

Btw, I still long for (at least) 1 more Fast Worker. Besides the always urgent math-chops I think we need more improvements to allow us to grow our cities in order to pay less for unit maintenance.

 

[shulec]

I count 6 forests that can be chopped for Delhi, 4*30 in Delhi's BFC and 2*24 in it's 3rd ring. Don't we want to try to get the AP T94 or would that jumble worker management too much? Are any worries regarding AP finish dates completely unfounded?

This is the most important aspect of our strategy. Thanks for bringing it up. Theology was founded in 875 BC, which it T80. The current PPP has us finishing the AP on T95. If the AP hasn't finished it by T 94, it will be ours. DanF suggests we can get it on T94.

What we then have to ask is can the AI build the AP in 14 turns. Our projections on the Pyramids were wrong. Can we afford to be wrong on this too?

My opinion is that I don't know. If we lose the AP, we are in trouble. mabraham is most familiar with the PPP. If he thinks it is too much of a sacrafice to chop as DanF suggests, then I will go along with the current PPP. Otherwise, I think we should go for T94 AP, if what DanF suggests is possible.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

If it gets us 1T on the AP, I think it's worth it.
If we lose the AP, I guess the SGOTM is lost too .

 

[bcool]

There is value in extending the war with Hammy. We need to get a trireme to scout his lands (and pillage his clams).

However if after we have scouted what we can with the trireme then perhaps we should opportunistically end the war if it is still possible by threatening his city. (assuming he isn't threatening ours)

I haven't done the numbers and am away from the game but it looks like we will be able to chop at least 1 more forest by T93 and finish the 4 BFC forests by T93 if we pull in Fritz and Eiffel. I have to agree that we should finish it T94 if we can even if it sacrifices some micro in the other cities.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I agree with the plan to get TAP on turn 94.

I agree with mabraham playing as soon as he is ready to play the above modification of his PPP.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[WastinTime]

Hey, good progress! I've been away for the weekend as well, but I'm caught up now. I don't like the monasteries and temples. What's the reason for building those? I would like to keep our focus on the big picture. Missionaries and gift cities seems critical.

I'm also against TGLibrary.

I don't think we will like what we find once our trireme and/or spy reveal our situation. We will probably benefit from having construction sooner rather than later. I sense that will have to smash thru one of our neighbors.

I don't mind dragging out the Hammu war. We may get a free hindu spread to him and then we can convert him and work on peace/open borders.

 

[bcool]

Hey, good progress! I've been away for the weekend as well, but I'm caught up now. I don't like the monasteries and temples. What's the reason for building those? I would like to keep our focus on the big picture. Missionaries and gift cities seems critical.

I'm also against TGLibrary.

I don't think we will like what we find once our trireme and/or spy reveal our situation. We will probably benefit from having construction sooner rather than later. I sense that will have to smash thru one of our neighbors.

I don't mind dragging out the Hammu war. We may get a free hindu spread to him and then we can convert him and work on peace/open borders.

The point of the temples and the monasteries is the free hammers. The monastery in the capital helps us more than a library would if you equate hammers and research. I believe the hammers are more valuable than the research is too.

The temples are 36 raw hammers (with the spiritual trait and OR running) to get +2 hammers and +1 per turn once we get the AP. I think the temples will be worth it (especially since happiness is likely to be an issue in our cities soon).

I agree that I think we will probably want construction after we finish math, but not because we will have to smash through a neighbor. I think we want construction for defense.

 

[mabraham]

OK thanks for the feedback. I will work up a T94 AP plan and execute.

 

[mabraham]

The chopping constraints are a PITA. We don't want to complete any chops before T92 when Maths completes. Several forests are not adjacent to roads, so it consumes a worker turn just to get there. We only need 130 chop hammers for T94 AP, so five chops of size 20-30 are sufficient.

I can see two reasonable plans. Compass points are relative to Delhi
Three workers
eiffel
t90 moves to 2N1E
t91 chop (20 hammers, wasting 10)
t92 move to 1SW
t93 chop (30 hammers)

hoover
t90 moves to 3N1W (bc tested that this chop will go do delhi from its culture)
t91-3 chop (20 hammers)

karl
t90-2 chop 2N (30 hammers)
t93 chop 1SE (30 hammers)

fritz
Stays with DeerGold doing chops there. Those chops accelerate the library by 2 turns (so 6 beakers) and the subsequent monastery by 3+ turns (so 6+hammers 3+beakers).

Four workers
eiffel
t90-1 spare (but there's nothing much useful to do)
t92 chop 1SE (30 hammers)
t93 chop 1SW (30 hammers)

hoover
t90 cottage 2N1E
t91-3 chop 2N2E (20 hammers)

karl
t90-2 chop 2N (30 hammers)
t93 spare

fritz
t90 move to 3N1W
T91-3 chop (20 hammers)

The three-worker plan offers a clear return for the 10 hammers wasted by reducing the number of workers required to complete the AP, because Fritz is delivering work that offers immediate return. The four-worker plan retains a Delhi BFC forest, of course. There are some minor variations available for the four-worker plan.

I'm leaning towards preferring the three-worker plan.

I'm out of time to do any playing now, but will plan to play in about 4.5 to 5 hours time, and can probably work out the follow-up worker and city flow in that time. Feedback welcome.

 

[bcool]

Here is a compromise plan

4 workers but we only need 1 turn from fritz (and sorta waste 2 on a road)

Fritz
t90 1E and prechop (1W of DeerGold)
t91 1SE and prechop (1S of DeerGold already has 1 turn of prechop into it)
t92 1E and road and stop
t93 1SE and finish chop of 3N1W forest
t94 move back finish road
t95 move and finish chop 1S of DeerGold
t96-t97 move and finish chop 1W of DeerGold (although this wouldn't accelerate the temple)

Karl
t90 move and prechopchop 2N of Delhi
t91 move 3N1W of Delhi & chop
t92 3N1W Delhi chop
t93 move 2N of Delhi chop and finish

Eiffel
t90 cottage 1N of Delhi
t91 move 2N of Delhi prechop
t92 chop 1SE Delhi
t93 chop 1SW Delhi

Hoover
t90 move 1E cottage
t91 move 2N2E Delhi chop
t92 chop
t93 finish chop 2N2E of Delhi (slightly better to save the forest 1N2E of Delhi for regrow purposes)

Fritz gets back and to chop T95 and T97 for DeerGold

Without chops DeerGold should be able to finish the library T94 if it works a grass forest 1 turn instead of a farm.

This delays the libary 1 turn, the monastery 1 turn, and the temple 2 turns
So we lose 6 hammers and 4.9 research (approximate)
Which I think might be a bit less than losing 10 hammers on the early chop for Delhi

 

[mabraham]

OK I'll run with bc's suggestion, except that the tile 2N of Delhi is a farm-in-progress and Eiffel should progress that on T90. Eiffel can no longer build the road near CowTown that might have accelerated the Toku city gift, so that will go back to T99 (if we end up doing it). I'll have to check the tile micro and timing of Delhi and DeerGold when I get access to my spreadsheet again.

So, extending bc's worker micro in a manner consistent with the original PPP, I will do:

Fritz
t90 1E and prechop (1W of DeerGold)
t91 1SE and prechop (1S of DeerGold already has 1 turn of prechop into it)
t92 1E and road and stop
t93 1SE and finish chop of 3N1W forest
t94 move back finish road
t95 move and finish chop 1S of DeerGold
t96-t97 move and finish chop 1W of DeerGold (although this wouldn't accelerate the temple)
t98-9 road 1W of DeerGold?

Karl
t90 move and prechopchop 2N of Delhi
t91 move 3N1W of Delhi & chop
t92 3N1W Delhi chop
t93 move 2N of Delhi chop and finish
t94 move 1S2E of DeerGold
t95-7 chop
t98 improvement 2N of Delhi?
T99- move to Ferry to go to island?

Eiffel
t90 cottagefarm 1N of Delhi
t91 move 2N of Delhi prechop
t92 chop 1SE Delhi
t93 chop 1SW Delhi
t94 farm 2N of Crabsville
t95-7 chop 2N1E of Crabsville
t98 mine 1N of Crabsville
t99-101 chop 1E of Crabsville (finishes granary at 8/24 food)

Hoover
t90 move 1E cottage
t91 move 2N2E Delhi chop
t92 chop
t93 finish chop 2N2E of Delhi (slightly better to save the forest 1N2E of Delhi for regrow purposes)
t94-5 road cows (last convenient chance)
t96-7 road 1N2E of Delhi (to hook up cows)
t98 chop for Delhi to accelerate AP-buffed religious buildings?
t99 improve 1SE of Delhi and wake, probably heading off for SheepTown next

 

[mabraham]

Diplo
Even if we have war success (e.g. galley kill), don't bother getting peace with Hamm or Shaka without them giving us stuff, unless they show up and look really scary
Gift deer, stone and marble to Toku, which should lead to +1 shared resource in 17 turns. We don't need these resources, don't care if he saves about 6 hammers per wall, and we have another deer if we meet another AI who might benefit us trade-wise from it.
Be prepared to gift small techs to newly-met AIs for big immediate diplo benefit. Apparently a Theology gift is acceptable if nothing else will do. I assume an MC gift is not acceptable.
Consider accepting a demand Toku makes.

Tech
100% Maths, inserting a turn of research build from Sheeptown to get completed in 2 turns, then 0% on IW until AP completes (in case we get to trade for IW with distant AI), then 100% IW, then 100% Compass.

AP
Resident election IBT95-6, vote for ourselves. First real vote will be IBT105-6. What might be available and how do we plan for it? If we've succeeded in gifting Toku that city, then we can force him to DOW Hammu or Shaka on the first AP vote, and maybe we can flip him to Hinduism to enforce OB with all members on the second AP vote. Once we have OB we spread Hinduism enough to lock him in Hinduism, and hope to get +4 fair trade, +2 shared war, +1 religion, +1 peace and +1 shared resources to offset the negative from border tension, and hopefully get him to Pleased (requires +5).

Espionage
Still on Toku, assuming he'll come again some day, or we might want to flip his religion

Cities
Delhi (corn, FP, copper throughout)
T90 Engineer 2GMine, Cook arrives as MP, continue AP
T91 grow to size 7, Engineer 3GMine (no tile changes in rest of set)
T92 Cook leaves, replacement arrives
T94 AP completes, start settler
T98 settler builds, heads for galley, monastery starts
T99 monastery finishes (using last Delhi chop), temple starts
T100 temple finishes, start worker?

DeerGold (deer, gold throughout)
T90 GFarm 2GMine
T91 grow to size 6, GFarm 3GMine (no tile changes in rest of set), axe from forest arrives as MP
T94 library completes, start monastery
T95 chop and monastery completes, start temple
T97 chop completes
T98 temple completes, start archer (or maybe research if things look peaceful, or spy if Argo has died)
T99 archer completes, start archer
T100 archer completes, start spy

Sheeptown (sheep, gold throughout; add corn whenever it becomes available, and make GMine available to Cowtown when corn is being worked)
T91 build research to speed Maths up if necessary
T92 grow to size 3, GMine
T93/4 granary completes, start library

Cowtown (deer, cows throughout)
T90 GFarm GMine
T91 grow to size 5, GFarm 2GMine
T92 finish spy, start missionary
T94 grow to size 6, work Gfarm 2Gmine Gforest (unless Sheeptown's GMine is available; need MP from Sheeptown regardless), switch to settler
T96 3-pop whip settler with 24+ overflow, work river Gmine
T97 finish settler, overflow to missionary, move settler 1SE of CowTown, and definitely don't plant settler anywhere yet
T98 finish missionary, start temple, plant settler and spread Hinduism using Eiffel's new road, and immediately gift to Toku. If Hindu spread doesn't work, still gift to Toku on the theory that we'll soon have another chance to spread Hinduism after it revolts back to us. Toku gets no culture from Hinduism regardless, as it's not Toku's state religion. If Toku DOWs us start T98 (not sure if this is possible), then move to settle fish-marble or island according to what looks sensible.
T99 grow to size 4, work Gfarm Gmine
T100 finish temple

Pigsgems (pigs, gems throughout)
T90 GMine
T91 wb completes, start galley, GFarm
T92 2-pop whip galley, start trireme
T94 grow to size 3, GFarm
T96 grow to size 4, GFarm GMine
T99 grow to size 5, may need MP, start temple

Crabsville
T90 start granary, work quarry
T92 work crab nets
T98 grow to size 2, work crabs and quarry

Units
Name the spy Sneaky, head for Toku capital and aim to get to the other side of Toku ASAP. If he's cornered by mountains somehow, scout the coastline for evidence of more land.

Name the trireme Argo, keep scouting Hammu's coast taking Alt-S notes on units seen. Seek combat where possible, but avoid combat if there's two galleys that might pick us off when wounded. Prefer to keep moving than loiter. Pillage seafood improvements where possible.

Name the scout workboat Magellan and send him counter-clockwise around the island, maximizing chances to see connecting land (so not cutting corners around peninsulas). If we find a barb galley, run for safety.

Name the galley Ferry and transport Cook to island to scout a city site. Return and wait for Hoover and settler out of Delhi. Scout in the opposite direction to Magellan if time permits before the next pickup. Avoid barb galley conflict, kiting as required to avoid losing units.

Cook to Delhi as MP, then leave T92 when relief arrives and move to load on Ferry and scout the island

Axes in Cowtown head to Delhi and DeerGold as MPs.

Axe 1SW of Sheeptown moves to Cowtown as MP

Newest axe on forest near DeerGold moves back as MP, and back to the forest as soon as MP relief and/or happiness permits, or some AI shows up with significant units.

Amundsen (the medic) moves to somewhere near Delhi that takes the same number of turns to get to Sheeptown or the forest choke point.

Other axes remain fortified

If we get a GG, move it to 1NW of Delhi and fortify until we can do something useful

Workers
If we get IW, adapt to mine BFC iron ASAP. No rush for non-BFC iron.
Fritz
t90 1E and prechop (1W of DeerGold)
t91 1SE and prechop (1S of DeerGold already has 1 turn of prechop into it)
t92 1E and road and stop
t93 1SE and finish chop of 3N1W forest
t94 move back finish road
t95 move and finish chop 1S of DeerGold
t96-7 road 1W of DeerGold (don't want to flood the hammers queue while building only archers)
t98-9 move and finish chop 1W of DeerGold (depending what is being built)

Karl
t90 move and prechopchop 2N of Delhi
t91 move 3N1W of Delhi & chop
t92 3N1W Delhi chop
t93 move 2N of Delhi chop and finish
t94 move 1S2E of DeerGold
t95-7 chop
t98- move to Ferry to go to island

Eiffel
t90 farm 1N of Delhi
t91 move 2N of Delhi prechop
t92 chop 1SE Delhi
t93 chop 1SW Delhi
t94 farm 2N of Crabsville
t95-7 chop 2N1E of Crabsville
t98 mine 1N of Crabsville
t99-101 chop 1E of Crabsville (finishes granary at 8/24 food)

Hoover
t90 move 1E cottage
t91 move 2N2E Delhi chop
t92 chop
t93 finish chop 2N2E of Delhi (slightly better to save the forest 1N2E of Delhi for regrow purposes)
t94-5 road cows (last convenient chance)
t96-7 road 1N2E of Delhi (to hook up cows)
t98 chop for Delhi to accelerate AP-buffed religious buildings
t99 improve 1SE of Delhi and wake, probably heading off for SheepTown next

Every turn
check if some AI will give us peace with them giving us some stuff
look for AI culture on globe view
save game
record corn tile culture
check tile micro, including which city gets shared tiles
kill Hammu or Shaka scouts if they appear
kill Hammu or Shaka boats
turn on show AI moves so stuff gets seen
watch for AI build-up via power ratios
laugh at Toku build-up
check if horses seen, so a spear is needed for NW front, and build same in DeerGold
look for Toku having Construction (easy once we have Maths)

Stopping points
AP completes, if there's new AI contacts so that we can discuss how best to manage the diplo
AP is lost
new contact with AI from spy, boats or them finding us
don't bother stopping if a barb galley appears somewhere, but consider whipping the next trireme to cope with it[/QUOTE]

 

[mabraham]

OK I've synthesised the above into a final PPP, and will start playing now. There are some question marks still in the PPP later on, but I figure I'll have to stop at some point anyway.