SGOTM 16 - Kakumeika

[Kaitzilla]

Real Saves Deleted*

 

[LowtherCastle]

Got 'em, thx.

Great turnset, Kaitzilla. Three week's worth!!!

I've always thought the mark of an excellent turnset is making it easy for the next player. I think WastinTime should be able to go to town with this...

 

[Kaitzilla]

Got 'em, thx.

Great turnset, Kaitzilla. Three week's worth!!!

I've always thought the mark of an excellent turnset is making it easy for the next player. I think WastinTime should be able to go to town with this...

Thanks! Hopefully any errors I made (and don't know about yet) don't bite WastinTime too hard. I've been know to pass turnsets onto the next player that have AI's plotting war in them for some reason. Keep both eyes on Brennus!

Appreciate the tremendous amount of help I got planning everything from everyone!



Also, is Brennus building something big in Tolosa? That espionage data looks suspicious.

Now for the hardest part for me, the test game update

 

[bcool]

good job Kaitzilla, once again a Herculean effort well played.

1. mabraham
2. Tachywaxon
3. bcool
4. WastinTime ... UP NOW
5. Walter_Wolf
6. Kaitzilla
7. Sun Tzu Wu ... ON DECK
8. shulec ... IN THE HOLE

 

[shulec]

Very nice job by Kaitzilla and his micro team!

We have 50 days to finish this game. We have played the number of turns that I normally play in about 45 minutes. Of course it is true that the early game micro means the most, but we have to pick up the pace. We can do just as much micro, it just has to be done more quickly. Unfortunately, I don't think that is possible. I am 99% sure that I will not be able to commit to a turnset going forward because of how long they are taking.

I takes 3-4 days to write a solid PPP. Most turnsets are played in two chunks with heavy revisions. If everyone is fine with that, than I will go along with it. I don't want to end up like OSS in SGOTM 14, scrambling to finish. There will be some heavy micro at the end to get everything to fall into place.

 

[WastinTime]

I'm just got back in town (again) and I have all week to catch up and dedicate to this! I think a good strategy would be for me to take the test game (if someone would be so kind and update it) and play 10 turns before I read the suggestions. A nice fresh perspective could give us some new ideas.

It's late evening here already, and I've had a few, so I'll look for the test game in the morning.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'll have the T126 test game updated by morning.

Updated the T126 photodump.

I rely on it heavily as a reference so I don't have to open the real save much at all. (Er, I use the much higher resolution ones on my desktop)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Ok, here is the latest test game!

All the hammers/food/culture/gold lines up from what I can see on the photodump.

The test game has 2 more in Machinery than the real game.
23 when it ought to be 21, but I'm too tired to fix it.

If something is horribly wrong that you want to fix, tell me and I'll upload a version from a few turns back. The north with all the fish and the AI needs some map work too.


Have fun!

 

[LowtherCastle]

I don't want to end up like OSS in SGOTM 14, scrambling to finish.

Why do you think I joined Kakumeika?

If you want to be part of a well managed team, you can always come over to us

There will be some heavy micro at the end to get everything to fall into place.

Not to worry. Kakumeika has an ace in the hole:

Man, I feel like taking OSS's save and just finishing the game to see where they are going to finish. They are taking forever

I'm still playing the mini-notebook I played on back then. Couldn't make it through a turn without freezing at the end there...but that was a fun SG. But OSS was slow in that one largely because players were coming and going. I went AWOL for a chunk of the middle segment, some others vanished, and I re-joined bbp toward the end to help wrap it up. Typical SG.

In this SG, our Alpha beeline in lieu of REX created a much more difficulty MM challenge. Nerve-racking turnset after turnset chasing wonders and avoiding barbs and DoWs with minimal defenses. REX+warfare is so much easier to MM. That phase is coming up gradually, I think. The only remaining "wonder race" might be the Sistine Chapel, especially now that someone has evidently finished Music. But we haven't seen any marble wonders built abroad, so probably we don't need to worry over that too much.

In my experience with Murky Waters, speed comes from the guy ON DECK being ready to dump a PPP within 24 hours of the previous player finishing. That avoids wasted days in between turnsets.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think a good strategy would be for me to take the test game (if someone would be so kind and update it) and play 10 turns before I read the suggestions. A nice fresh perspective could give us some new ideas.

Excellent idea! Gaining your perspective was another reason I wanted to follow Kakumeika.

 

[mabraham]

Excellent idea! Gaining your perspective was another reason I wanted to follow Kakumeika.

... and most of Kakumeika has learned to shut up and follow WastinTime's instincts, too! I can't recall a time we've crossed his advice and been right.

 

[shulec]

We can attempt to steal Iron Working right now T126 in Camulodunum for 256 or wait 4 more turns for a lower price. 82% chance of success right now T126.

I think WastinTime should download the real game, steal IW this turn and upload. It gives us our best chance of stealing IW. The longer the spy sits in the city, he has risks being detected. If we have two spies, the risk of detection goes up. But if we wait one turn and do not allow spy 2 to enter the city, our chances only slightly decrease due to our risk of detection. Waiting until T127 saves us some EP points (about 100).

Another reason to steal now it to know where the iron is located to help prevent WastinTime from wastin' time on micro ppp that will change when we get Iron.

On T126
0% chance of spy detection.
18% chance of failure of mission.
82% success

On T127, Before spy 2 gets to Camulodunum
1.4% chance of detection (assuming no Brennus spy present)
18% chance of failure of mission
80.8% success

I used this equation to deterimine spy detection chances:

Spoiler :

This is (hopefully!) a complete summary of how spy detection and interception works. All numbers are assuming an unmodified version of the game. For the sake of consistency, this example will assume that "we" or "us" are the ones spying, and "they" or "them" are the ones defending.

There are a number of variables to take into consideration. The first is the intercept modifer. If we have an Open Borders treaty with them, we have "ESPIONAGE_SPY_NO_INTRUDE_INTERCEPT_MOD", or ESNIIM = 10 (it's stored as -90, but the actual value is used as "100 + ESNIIM"). If not, we have "ESPIONAGE_SPY_INTERCEPT_MOD", or ESIM = 25 (or -75). The next variable is the ratio of total espionage points between us and them. That is the complete total amount of espionage points ever put in, not merely the points we have put into them or vice versa. Let's call our total points as OME, and theirs as TME, and the ratio as REP. The formula for the ratio is: TME / (TME + OME). This number is multiplied by a variable called "ESPIONAGE_INTERCEPT_SPENDING_MAX", or EISM, which is defined as 25.

Next is counter-spying. Counter-spying can be accomplished in two ways - by them having a spy on the square we are on, or by them having built the Security Bureau in the city we are in. If that's the case, that triggers the "ESPIONAGE_INTERCEPT_COUNTERSPY" or EIC, value of 15. Next, is the possibility that they have ran the counter-intelligence mission against us. If that's the case, they triggered "ESPIONAGE_INTERCEPT_COUNTERESPIONAGE_MISSION", or EICM which is defined as 20. And finally, if our spy just moved onto the square, or if we already have a spy on that square, we trigger "ESPIONAGE_INTERCEPT_RECENT_MISSION", or EIRM, value of 15.

So to recap:
ESNIIM = 10
ESIM = 25
REP = TME / (TME + OME)
EISM = 25
EIC = 15
EICM = 20
EIRM = 15

The complete formulas, assuming all values are relevant is:
((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM) * ESNIIM (Open Borders)
((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM) * ESIM (No Open Borders)

Note that the:
((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM)
part of the formula is capped at a range of 0..100.

Once the formula is used to get a number, the game generates a random number from 0..9999. If the random number is greater or equal to the number generated by the formula, then the spy is not discovered. If the random number is less than the number from the formula, the spy is caught.

A couple examples to give some concrete numbers:
Our spy moves on to their tile where they have a spy. We don't have an open borders treaty with them. They have not run a counter-intelligence mission on us. We have generated a total EPs of 1000 over the game, they have generated 3000.

REP = TME / (TME + OME)
REP = 3000 / (3000 + 1000)
REP = 0.75

= ((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM) * ESIM
= ((25 * 0.75) + 15 + 0 + 15) * 25
= 1218.75
= 1218 (rounded down)

For Camulodunum:
= ((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM) * ESIM
=((25*0.56) + 0 + 0 + 0)*10
=140.5

140.5/10000*100(%)= 1.4%

So percentage-wise, they have a 12.2% chance of detecting our spy.

Another example. Our spy has been sitting on a square for 2 turns, they have no spy on the square, they have not run a counter-intelligence mission, and we have an Open Borders treaty with them. Let's reverse the EPs from above (so we have generated 3000, they have generated 1000).

REP = TME / (TME + OME)
REP = 1000 / (1000 + 3000)
REP = 0.25

= ((EISM * REP) + EIC + EICM + EIRM) * ESNIIM
= ((25 * 0.25) + 0 + 0 + 0) * 10
= 62.5
= 62 (rounded down)

So percentage-wise, they have a 0.6% chance of detecting our spy.

Bh

 

[LowtherCastle]

(assuming no Brennus spay present)

Brennus nay have Alphayet. May it stay that way...

 

[mabraham]

Why do you think I joined Kakumeika?Not to worry. Kakumeika has an ace in the hole: I'm still playing the mini-notebook I played on back then. Couldn't make it through a turn without freezing at the end there...but that was a fun SG. But OSS was slow in that one largely because players were coming and going. I went AWOL for a chunk of the middle segment, some others vanished, and I re-joined bbp toward the end to help wrap it up. Typical SG.

In this SG, our Alpha beeline in lieu of REX created a much more difficulty MM challenge. Nerve-racking turnset after turnset chasing wonders and avoiding barbs and DoWs with minimal defenses. REX+warfare is so much easier to MM. That phase is coming up gradually, I think. The only remaining "wonder race" might be the Sistine Chapel, especially now that someone has evidently finished Music. But we haven't seen any marble wonders built abroad, so probably we don't need to worry over that too much.

Ooh, good catch. I saw the GArtist had popped, but didn't connect that this early that has to be Music. With no GAge or marble available any time soon, do we really want to get Music soon enough to have a real shot at Sistine? While it's nice having the ability to acquire even more double-able passive culture from State Religion buildings in our two legendary cities, that's a big hammer investment (Sistine) and a big beaker investment (Lit+Music) that's going to delay either our war, our Oxford, our contact to the other continent, or all three. Extra culture on specialists from Sistine also seems weak. We really don't know what our rate-limiting decathlon requirement will be. Getting faster access to Sushi culture by prioritizing all three of war, Oxford and Optics offsets the culture lost from Sistine. If we can see we will get to FT1 before we have enough culture for two Legendary Cities, then we have culture builds, culture slider, reverting to Caste and/or Bur, and organizing artist bombs available. But I'd hate to see us rush for Sistine, get it, and then find that our Sushi output meant we got our two LC 30 turns before FT1...

In my experience with Murky Waters, speed comes from the guy ON DECK being ready to dump a PPP within 24 hours of the previous player finishing. That avoids wasted days in between turnsets.

Big unknowns and big strategy changes/reactions make for complex and lengthy turn sets. Building wonders, doing espionage, managing diplo and managing AP all have strong unknown components for which we have been trying to plan. I think that phase is drawing to a close. We have lots of cities to settle, infrastructure to build and army to construct, but the fine detail of much of what is to come is not important. Tile and growth micro should really not be discussed much further - from about now, I think PPP statements like "Paris: max growth to size x, then max commerce; build x, then y" are generally fine. A special project like a wonder or coordinating our universities for Oxford starting can get more planning. But the build and tile micro of the new island cities does not have enough impact to talk about more than "New 3FP-clams city: whip WB-granary-forge with max growth between".

Of course, military strategies replace a lot of that intricacy by the invulnerability and insensitivity of a Civ with a big army. Hopefully we can set up to do some of that soon, now that we know we can get Mach (possibly plus Eng) relatively soon from our GMerchant cash stockpile, and use the pillage economy to keep going to our other strategic techs.

 

[mabraham]

I think WastinTime should download the real game, steal IW this turn and upload. It gives us our best chance of stealing IW. The longer the spy sits in the city, he has risks being detected. If we have two spies, the risk of detection goes up. But if we wait one turn and do not allow spy 2 to enter the city, our chances only slightly decrease due to our risk of detection. Waiting until T127 saves us some EP points (about 100).

Another reason to steal now it to know where the iron is located to help prevent WastinTime from wastin' time on micro ppp that will change when we get Iron.

On T126
0% chance of spy detection.
18% chance of failure of mission.
82% success

On T127, Before spy 2 gets to Camulodunum
1.4% chance of detection (assuming no Brennus spy present)
18% chance of failure of mission
80.8% success

I used this equation to deterimine spy detection chances:

Spoiler :

Sure. We were taking much more important gambles with those barb combats on these sorts of odds 40 turns ago. Also, it lets us know whether we need a replacement spy.

 

[shulec]

Ooh, good catch. I saw the GArtist had popped, but didn't connect that this early that has to be Music. With no GAge or marble available any time soon, do we really want to get Music soon enough to have a real shot at Sistine? While it's nice having the ability to acquire even more double-able passive culture from State Religion buildings in our two legendary cities, that's a big hammer investment (Sistine) and a big beaker investment (Lit+Music) that's going to delay either our war, our Oxford, our contact to the other continent, or all three. Extra culture on specialists from Sistine also seems weak. We really don't know what our rate-limiting decathlon requirement will be. Getting faster access to Sushi culture by prioritizing all three of war, Oxford and Optics offsets the culture lost from Sistine. If we can see we will get to FT1 before we have enough culture for two Legendary Cities, then we have culture builds, culture slider, reverting to Caste and/or Bur, and organizing artist bombs available. But I'd hate to see us rush for Sistine, get it, and then find that our Sushi output meant we got our two LC 30 turns before FT1...

Don't forget that we can get 50% culture in 2 LCs from cathedrals, which come from Music. Unfortunately, we don't have copper yet, so we may have to build without the bonus.

 

[bcool]

My feeling about culture is, FT1 will come much faster than legendary cities will. In my space games I'll occasionally build a cathedral just for the happiness and use Sushi, but I almost never have a city go legendary before I launch a space ship.

Therefore I think Sistine is important. The culture from the specialist will be important since we hope to be using Sushi and thus will likely have significant specialists most likely at least in Orleans.

 

[mabraham]

Don't forget that we can get 50% culture in 2 LCs from cathedrals, which come from Music. Unfortunately, we don't have copper yet, so we may have to build without the bonus.

Sure, good point.

We've committed a lot of time to wonders that contribute both to the tech rate and the LC rate (and to the residential decathlon point). Do we feel that we are likely to tech so fast to FT1 that we are a long way from two LC? Is that consideration worth taking 10(?) turns break from useful teching now to get Music, and then invest a pile of hammers (600 base, so 400 for as as Ind) that could be five trebs?

Ideally, we will adjust our teching and culture output so we finish all decathlon requirements on the same turn, which is hopefully minimal. If our tech machine is so strong that we'd be adjusting the slider to get culture at the end, then we should go and get Music+Sistine now. So, do wonder-heavy cities go close to Legendary in Sushi-powered space games? I just don't know.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Oh ya. Some notes not really noticeable from the test game.

There is 1 Movement-Point left on the Northeast Arctic exploration boat. It can settle the Deer_Pigs_Fish fish on T131 if it comes straight back.

Also, Brennus has a Settler/spear/archer combo about 5 or 6 turns from settling clams/sugar in the Real Game.

 

[WastinTime]

I think WastinTime should download the real game, steal IW this turn and upload.

I'm on board with this. Votes please.