SGOTM 16 - Kakumeika

[LowtherCastle]

Well played so far, Sun TZu Wu! Are you planning to continue now or are you taking a break?

 

[mabraham]

Progress looks good.

Thoughts moving forward:

• Brennus has a chariot in Tolosa, but Camulodunum is not in range (Brennus does not have Engineering)
• The Gallic warrior's ability to pick off our stack defender (catapult) makes it seem unwise to proceed with the invasion this turn.
• Bring all four macemen and cat now to consolidate the stack. We likely do not need four fully healed attackers.
• Leave the treb to heal in Camulodunum.
• We hope to capture Tolosa T143 (Edit: via an espionage revolt, in my view), so we want the road 2S of Camulodunum completed by T143 for the reinforcements. So Slave should move to that tile this turn or next to start that road.
• Heal Chariot 3 in Camulodunum (he can catch up later and/or defend Slave)
• We have no prospective medic at the front, but warrior 9 now has C1 and 5XP, so I suggest pike 1 cover HC until the archer builds in HC, as there may not be any work for a second pike and we're sure to find a use for a medic1 warrior.
• Other units to the front
• DPF is working 3 food resources and is already unhappy because it is too low on the city order to attract the Rep bonus. So unless there's some whipping due somewhere, I think CPF should have the settler (e.g. to sync up with Sea Vous Plait)
• Rheims got spontaneous Confu in time for its granary chop!
• T142 we will have gems to offer to Ramesses
• Ramesses will trade world maps and sweeten with 25 easy decision
• We have demographics vision on Brennus again. He has spent a ton of commerce on espionage against us, it seems. I think we are about 24EPs short of what we need for the Tolosa revolt (which can be measured by using the menu on the spy to find out the cost of a cheap mission that we can afford, and comparing that number to the numbers in the espionage mission page for Tolosa)
• Our power is only just short of Brennus, which seems like good news

 

[mabraham]

Also, I'm happy to start our market in Paris now, or after a treb.

 

[bcool]

sorry I didn't comment on the mace upgrade. I didn't have a strong opinion either way.

I definitely think we should trade maps to ramesses for 25 gold and his maps this turn.
I wouldn't leave the treb behind to heal. Bring it to knock down walls. It does that just as well injured.
Yes skip the treb in Paris and build a market.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Nice progress Sun Tzu Wu

Yes, trade our maps for Ramesses maps + gold

Also, might want to beg for Ramesses remaining gold. 45g for free sounds perfect.

Medic warrior would be vastly useful! I agree with Mabraham to keep the pike in Horse City until archer is done and send the medic warrior to the front immediately.

Oh ya, we bribed Ramesses into the war for Machinery
Hopefully that will keep the southern half of Brennus' empire busy.

Sorry about all this war by committee back and forth
Just read through all the advice and choose what you think will give us the best war results.

Good luck once more!

 

[bcool]

I would beg the next turn after we do the map + gold trade this turn. AI tend to store up more gold while at war. I think we can get more than 45 gold from a beg at this point. Isn't the minimum beg amount 1 gold per turn you know the AI, *3 if we are a land target I thought.

Anyways I think we can get 100 gold from a beg, but I'm not a begging expert.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I would beg the next turn after we do the map + gold trade this turn. AI tend to store up more gold while at war. I think we can get more than 45 gold from a beg at this point. Isn't the minimum beg amount 1 gold per turn you know the AI, *3 if we are a land target I thought.

Anyways I think we can get 100 gold from a beg, but I'm not a begging expert.

The test game indicated we could only get 50g about 10-15 turns ago. I really wouldn't try going over 60g personally.

1g every turn we've known the AI is the rule of thumb we've used in the past, but I've had very mixed success begging. I've looked around for a guide but I can't find it

 

[WastinTime]

Agree on map trade
No more seige builds
Don't heal seige.
Medic chariot not available? I like fast moving medics. That's why I take Combat I over Flanking.

 

[WastinTime]

We should try to get 70 W in the beg this turn. Then trade maps+gold a turn or two later for more gold.

 

[LowtherCastle]

We should try to get 70 W in the beg this turn. Then trade maps+gold a turn or two later for more gold.

Here is what I have from Silu:

Spoiler :

Begging mechanics for non-vassal deals:

Maximum amount that is accepted is

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.

Note that this remembers earlier gifts granted, so if this formula gives a value of 1000, and we already have begged 700 during the game, the max gift value granted is only 300. Again, the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble. Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

Also it's very important to note that the beg is refused outright if they haven't forgot all the former begs (successful and unsuccessful). AIs have a 5% chance of forgetting one beg each turn. So, the optimal begging rotation regarding this is a somewhat complicated optimization problem. Once upon a time I did simulations to find out the best beg interval regarding just this forgetting mechanic, results are here.


Surprisingly, demands (for Civs below Pleased) work exactly the same, except they're refused outright if their power is more than 1.33x ours. And of course they give a diplo penalty.

Estimated safe values to beg, as gold, AI not in financial trouble, as of current turn 157, assuming at least Pleased (further diplo bonuses don't matter):

ZY: 550g
JUSTINIAN: 70g
OTHERS: well under 50g

Okay, seems it isn't quite time to start mass begging yet, except from ZY. Because there's a huge, stochastic cooldown between begs, we should definitely beg from ZY instantly if we can get 150+g unless we want to aim for begging a tech. Should perhaps also beg from Justinian if there's a loose 50g to be had. This isn't an exact science so don't cut these thresholds close. Also all this assuming we have made no successful or unsuccessful begs so far.

And naturally if you beg, also document unsuccessful attempts (yeah I know, I'm kinda repeating myself ) and include the exact amount of a successful beg in a report.

Calculated from this data:

MET TURNS:

ZY: 3
JUSTINIAN: 59*
ISABELLA: 118*
TOKU: 118*
SALADIN: 125
MEHMED: 128

* = some discrepancy, turnset report not clear

CURRENT TURN: 157

Power ratios:

JUSTINIAN: 0.5
ZY: 0.9

So I have tried out his data and I now believe I understand how it works. Here's the formula:

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.​

Plus this:

• the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble.
• Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

That means to determine how much gold we can get we divide the formula by 2 for normal conditions, divide by 3 for financial trouble. To determine the tech value we can get, divide by 1.5.

We met Ramesses on T21 and Brennus on T19, iirc. So here are the values I get, assuming Power Ratios of 1:1 (what are they actually?:

Assuming PowerRatio = 1 

         Known  Tech   Gold   Financial
         Turns  Value  Value  Trouble
         -----  -----  -----  ---------                   
Brennus   120    680    510     340
Ramesss   119    224    168

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Well played so far, Sun TZu Wu! Are you planning to continue now or are you taking a break?

Sorry, I should have mentioned that I needed to pause the game and resume Thursday evening.

I was hoping to make faster progress, but it seems its best to ensure we get through this war with minimum drag on our Future Tech 1 goal.

I will use all suggestions that have a consensus.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

Here is what I have from Silu:So I have tried out his data and I now believe I understand how it works. Here's the formula:

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.​

Plus this:

• the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble.
• Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

That means to determine how much gold we can get we divide the formula by 2 for normal conditions, divide by 3 for financial trouble. To determine the tech value we can get, divide by 1.5.

We met Ramesses on T21 and Brennus on T19, iirc. So here are the values I get, assuming Power Ratios of 1:1 (what are they actually?:

Assuming PowerRatio = 1 

         Known  Tech   Gold   Financial
         Turns  Value  Value  Trouble
         -----  -----  -----  ---------                   
Brennus   120    680    510     340
Ramesss   119    224    168

Well, our power has skyrocketed from where it was 15 turns ago, so maybe a 70g beg would work

Also, we should only attempt getting enough espionage to blow up a dun (115ish? maybe 120 to be safe)
I'm firmly against blowing tons of gold getting 400 to revolt a city because it isn't cost effective on normal speed.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

In turn 138, I accidentally ended the turn with 100% espionage selected (must remember to always leave sliders at desired settings after "playing" with them). Sorry. However, mabraham calculated that we are 24E short of a City Revolt in Tolosa. A City Revolt in Bibracte would be better, but significantly more expensive even with F25. A City Revolt in Tolosa or Bibracte would save 1-2 turns of bombardment. 1 turn if we destroy the Dun instead.

EDIT: Seeing Kaitzilla's post about the Espionage needed for a Revolt, I may have misundestood mabraham's comments regarding it.

Spending the extra Espionage does improve our Spy's survival chances too. If we had spent it sooner, Spy 2 would have had a better survival rate.

Does a Support City Revolt in either Tolosa or Bibracte sound like a reasonable strategy for capturing either city sooner?

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

We should try to get 70 W in the beg this turn. Then trade maps+gold a turn or two later for more gold.

I now agree with this. 70g beg is worth trying
Map+more gold can wait a little bit.

If we already did 100% espionage for a turn, then might as well spend 24 more eps to get a city revolt.

I'd personally use it on Tolosa the turn we attack with maces. Smashing that city without having to bombard it gets us to Brennus' capital just that much quicker.

 

[mabraham]

In turn 138, I accidentally ended the turn with 100% espionage selected (must remember to always leave sliders at desired settings after "playing" with them). Sorry. However, mabraham calculated that we are 24E short of a City Revolt in Tolosa. A City Revolt in Bibracte would be better, but significantly more expensive even with F25. A City Revolt in Tolosa or Bibracte would save 1-2 turns of bombardment. 1 turn if we destroy the Dun instead.

Spending the extra Espionage does improve our Spy's survival changes too. If we had spent it sooner, Spy 2 would have had a better survival rate.

Does a Support City Revolt in either Tolosa or Bibracte sound like a reasonable strategy for capturing either city sooner?

Sun Tzu Wu

I'd assumed the plan was to use espionage on one or both cities (hence me wanting another spy in Paris T138), and while I thought of the desirability of having spent more EPs to improve spies' survivability, I didn't think it was a great idea once we actually lost one of them. Then I was surprised to see we had a pile of EPs. However, accidents happen. Speeding up the war by using some of our economic strength to avoid time bombarding might turn out to be positive for Oxford completion... we won't know until we see what stack Brennus might assemble.

My expectation that we'd use a revolt in Tolosa explains my desire to heal the treb - not bombing Tolosa is 1) a faster war, and 2) has no use for a nearly-dead treb. If we're going to bombard both cities, that's fine, take the treb with the stack now.

But now that we have the pile of EPs, it makes sense to use it on one of the big cities. Right now Tolosa is 65% and Bibracte is 85%, and each has a Dun. Once we capture Tolosa and the Chicken Pizza, Bibracte will drop to 60%. So it is more "defence-%" efficient, and cheaper to use the spy in Tolosa, plus we get to keep full vision of Tolosa on the approach march. Secondarily, there's no strong need for the treb at Tolosa (unless the spy is caught before the mission), so it may as well heal in Camul and be able to both bombard and attack Bibracte when the time comes. Edit: naw we can probably take Bibracte T149, but the treb can't heal up and travel by then.

But we only want another 20% of commerce the turn before the mission, once we see the spy has lived that long. (And if the spy does die before the mission, we want a new spy so we can use those precious EPs!)

 

[mabraham]

I now agree with this. 70g beg is worth trying
Map+more gold can wait a little bit.

If we already did 100% espionage for a turn, then might as well spend 24 more eps to get a city revolt.

I'd personally use it on Tolosa the turn we attack with maces. Smashing that city without having to bombard it gets us to Brennus' capital just that much quicker.

Agreed. It's definitely not 400EPs required. The espionage screen doesn't account for the spy fortification bonus. I think the EP approach is close to being right - but time will tell how fast the war can actually go.

 

[LowtherCastle]

deleted

 

[mabraham]

Agree on map trade
No more seige builds
Don't heal seige.
Medic chariot not available? I like fast moving medics. That's why I take Combat I over Flanking.

Happy to skip further siege units.

Whether healing the treb makes sense depends on the strategic decision to revolt Tolosa or not (though if people want to bring it to Tolosa as insurance, then that's not silly either). Edit: naw, we should probably be taking Bibracte T149, so the treb doesn't have enough time to heal and travel there.

There won't be a chariot-medic available until at least after Tolosa. We have a C1 and a C2 chariot, and two 0XP chariots.

 

[mabraham]

deleted

 

[LowtherCastle]

Our Tolosa SoD currently has 4 maces, 2 undamaged, two requiring 7 and 14HP, 7 siege, 4 chariots, and 2 archers. Testing shows that the Tolosa culture at Tolosa-2E does not vanish upon capture (T143) but rather the next turn. I don't know why, though klarius found the code for it, iirc. If that's true, the mace currently in Paris cannot join the SoD at Tolosa-1SE till T144 to move T145.

What do we consider safe protection to move our siege toward Bibracte? Are two full-strength maces enough? If so, we could not use the damaged ones during the Tolosa capture and heal them with a medic chariot in 1 turn, ready to move T144.

In short, I don't see how a city revolt helps us, other than allowing the treb to heal from 20/100HP to 35/100HP and allowing our siege to possibly attack Tolosa rather than only bombard. I'd rather destroy the Dun, save our eps. We blew a wad of eps on IW by not waiting for 50%. Since then we've bought a bunch. Why repeat that?