SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

[ChrisShaffer]

We don't have to make the Oxford decision during my turnset, do we? So that discussion won't stop me from playing tonight. I'm not sure if it's best in Commerce or Paris, to be honest.

I think after we finish paper, we should research enough of Education so that a GS could bulb it, then set research to 0% and save money. If we get a GS, do the bulb. If we get something else, turn research back on full.

I agree with selling compass and holding off on the feudalism trade for now. They will happily trade it to us later, it's no hurry, and Brennus stealing it from us would be a disaster.

Can we pillage roads inside someone's territory? Or is the pillaging only supposed to happen in the neutral territory?

Am I expected to pillage the horses during my turnset? Is the move of the chariot to that location already included in the plan Neil has drafted?

 

[Revent]

First, we need to calculate how many towns we plan to have. A guesstimate should do the trick. Let's call this number x. The commerce we will gain from this is 2x.

The commerce we gain from Bur in Paris +50% of the base commerce. The base commerce isn't a stationary value, but at one point in the game, Paris will reach it's maximum base commerce value, y. I've estimated that to be at around 75 (all tiles worked and TR income). Therefore the benefit of Bur will be 37 commerce per turn at it's best. Currently, the Bur bonus is 26 and since for the most part, rate of increase in commerce is linear, we can assume that the average commerce bonus will be 31 commerce meaning a base commerce of 62.

The point at which FS offsets Bur all other things equal is when 2x>y. We've worked out y to be a maximum of 37 meaning x has to be 19.

The point at which Free Speech will offset Bur is when we will have between 16-19 towns. Realistically, this will be a lot less because:
a)Bur is high upkeep and FS is low
b)FS also provides us 100% culture which will help us towards our culture requirements.

We can just look at the save and Brennus's land and our land and Rams land to see how long it will take before we get that many towns to give an idea. Just as a very quick and rough guesstimate by looking at the map, I think it will be 60-70 turns before FS offsets Bur. Let's say in 70 turns we revolt to FS. (Good timing as it takes 70 turns for a fresh cottage to become a town).

That means running 70 turns of Bur, of which 50 turns will be with Oxford built. So for around 50 turns, we will get the Oxford bonus for an average of an extra 31 commerce per turn. This equates to a bonus of 1550 extra commerce overall in the net game before Bur loses it's bonus.

Assuming an 1800AD finish date, we have 100 turns to offset that bonus of around 1550 meaning Commerce will need to produce an average of 15.5 commerce a turn more than Paris does for it to be worth building Oxford in Commerce. It looks possible and as I have said, lots of the stuff I've made are guesstimates so the number could be a lot less or more!

 

[neilmeister]

We don't have to make the Oxford decision during my turnset, do we? So that discussion won't stop me from playing tonight. I'm not sure if it's best in Commerce or Paris, to be honest.

I think after we finish paper, we should research enough of Education so that a GS could bulb it, then set research to 0% and save money. If we get a GS, do the bulb. If we get something else, turn research back on full.

I agree with selling compass and holding off on the feudalism trade for now. They will happily trade it to us later, it's no hurry, and Brennus stealing it from us would be a disaster.

Can we pillage roads inside someone's territory? Or is the pillaging only supposed to happen in the neutral territory?

Am I expected to pillage the horses during my turnset? Is the move of the chariot to that location already included in the plan Neil has drafted?

Agreed about trading and the GS and Education plan.

We can't pillage anything in their lands, only neutral territory (all those forests east of Thebes may have a road)

Horses are hopefully sabotaged by the spy, if the spy fails, the Chariot in Clams can move on t157 and do it, so its after your set.

edit: thankfully Brennus & Ramesses don't have OB.

edit 2: everything discussed is in the drafted plan, I have edited it about 50 times

 

[neilmeister]

Just to complicate things some more, don't forget we won't be running 100% research rate. I think it is safe to estimate long term average of 60%

 

[SteelHorse]

Oxford:
- with IND +50%
- with forge +25%
- with OR +25%
- with stone +100%
- with beauro +50%

Assuming Paris works its 2 mines, and 1 more plains tile (needs to be cottaged), it will have 10 base hammers. It gets +250%, to make 35 hpt.

Assuming Commerce works all its plains cottages, and 2 PH mines (1 needs to be mined), it will have 11 base hammers. It gets +200%, to make 33 hpt.

Paris still gets a little more raw commerce than Commerce does, and most of its cottages are still hamlets. The TR's as well are only going to get better once Paris grows past 10 (and the destination grow past 10 as well).... and of course it is the current Cap, so it gets 50% raw commerce bonus.

Commerce though could take 2 cottages from Paris, and then it would overtake Paris for raw commerce.

I would build Oxford in Paris, once its cottages mature, it will outgun Commerce. With Sushi, it could cottage every plains tile.

Hmm. Need to analyze a bit more. While Paris could cottage every tile one question is when would those cottages turn into towns. The other question we need to think about is which cities will be our Legendary cities and how many turns will we need to get them to Legendary status. This is important as it impacts when we need to exit Bureau and get into FS. My assumption was as soon as we have Lib, but to be fair I am not sure whether or not that is necessary that soon. And I am no culture expert. But if anyone is and can roadmap how to get 2 legendary cities in 100 turns it might be helpful.

EDIT: xpost with revent who is on the same wavelength

 

[neilmeister]

To get 2 Legendary cities, we will need:

- 3 Cathedrals in Paris (may be another city)
- 3 Cathedrals in Commerce (may be another city)
- 6 Buddhist temples (need 1 more)
- 6 Confused temples
- 6 Christian temples
- Sids Sushi
- 30 sushi resources (need 10 from other continent and to found a few more island cities)
- Sistines (built or captured)
- Free Speech

Lets just estimate that we have all of these in 60 turns from now.
- 30 Sushi resources will give us 60 base cpt, and 15 fpt
- 15fpt will give us 8 extra specialists (assume we run 10 in both Paris & Commerce)
- 10 Artists will give 40 base culture
- Sistines will give 20 base culture (assuming 10 specialists)
- Current Paris buildings give 32 cpt, so assume 100 cpt with more temples, theatre, wonders...

Base culture per turn is then 220cpt.

- Free Speech +100%
- Broadcast Tower +50%
- 3 Cathedrals +150%
- Hermitage in one +100%

One legendary city will get +300%, the other +400%.

So one will have 880 cpt, the other will get 1100 cpt.

40 turns of this gives 35000 culture for one, and 44000 for the other.

This is all with 0% Culture slider and no bombs. We will likely run more specialists than 10, we will likey get another religion spread. Cahokia has 'Mids, MoM & both Hindu & Judaism.
We might get less sushi resources, but we will get more religions.

 

[Revent]

Just to complicate things some more, don't forget we won't be running 100% research rate. I think it is safe to estimate long term average of 60%

But that applies linearly to both Commerce and Paris at the same rate so doesn't have an effect.

@Neil, do we really want to run those junky artists?

 

[neilmeister]

But that applies linearly to both Commerce and Paris at the same rate so doesn't have an effect.

@Neil, do we really want to run those junky artists?

True, and no we probably don't want the artists, and more to the point we probably won't need to, but it does illustrate the options we have open to us.

With the slider and 10 towns, we could also generate another 80-90 base cpt as well. edit: but that is obviously less desirable, as the slider is empire wide.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Am I green for the plan in Neil's posting? I can play in about two hours.

 

[neilmeister]

Green from me

edit: This was posted after the first draft of the plan.

Green from me. Let's try not to trade Theology away however.

 

[SteelHorse]

Green from me.
Great war analysis neil - very impressive work.

more discussion needed on legendary cities i think though before the uni/edu/oxford turnset.

 

[SteelHorse]

Silly question - Is the total for legendary 50K?

To get 2 Legendary cities, we will need:
- 3 Cathedrals in Paris (may be another city)
- 3 Cathedrals in Commerce (may be another city)
- 6 Buddhist temples (need 1 more)
- 6 Confused temples
- 6 Christian temples
- Sids Sushi
- 30 sushi resources (need 10 from other continent and to found a few more island cities)
- Sistines (built or captured)
- Free Speech

Agree on Cathedrals, temples, and Sids.
But should Paris and Commerce be culture cities or should they be dedicated as research cities to get us to FT1 ASAP.
Should instead we should look at high prod cities which can build the culture wonders (Globe, Herm, Hagia, Sistine, AP, etc) quicker and don't detract from tech. They could then build culture. High hammer -> high culture.

Lets just estimate that we have all of these in 60 turns from now.
- 30 Sushi resources will give us 60 base cpt, and 15 fpt
- 15fpt will give us 8 extra specialists (assume we run 10 in both Paris & Commerce)
- 10 Artists will give 40 base culture
- Sistines will give 20 base culture (assuming 10 specialists)
- Current Paris buildings give 32 cpt, so assume 100 cpt with more temples, theatre, wonders...

If we are producing GAs then we are not producing GS. And we are not teching as quickly as possible. I am good with running artist specialist in the culture cities, but if we do end up with a GA, the 4000 cult bomb may be a better use.

Base culture per turn is then 220cpt.

- Free Speech +100%
- Broadcast Tower +50%
- 3 Cathedrals +150%
- Hermitage in one +100%

One legendary city will get +300%, the other +400%.

So one will have 880 cpt, the other will get 1100 cpt.

40 turns of this gives 35000 culture for one, and 44000 for the other.

This is all with 0% Culture slider and no bombs. We will likely run more specialists than 10, we will likey get another religion spread. Cahokia has 'Mids, MoM & both Hindu & Judaism.

We might get less sushi resources, but we will get more religions.

I think we will need at least 2 more cathedrals as you point out. Shouldn't be hard. Poor SB, looks like he is next on the list.

We should start to start counting the sushi resource. 30 seems doable we at 12 already if we cancel some trades.

And as you say, we will need FS which means no Bureau (or at least not for half the remaining turns. Need to factor this into the Oxford discussion.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Playing

 

[neilmeister]

Silly question - Is the total for legendary 50K?

Should instead we should look at high prod cities which can build the culture wonders

I think we will need at least 2 more cathedrals as you point out. Shouldn't be hard. Poor SB, looks like he is next on the list.

Yes, 50K

Probably, but don't forget Commerce will be high hammers once it gets its levee. The exact 2 cities we choose though is still very open to debate.

Yes indeed, poor SB, but we don't want all of his cities, just 1 for now.

 

[SteelHorse]

Yes indeed, poor SB, but we don't want all of his cities, just 1 for now.

And his vote

 

[SteelHorse]

Probably, but don't forget Commerce will be high hammers once it gets its levee. The exact 2 cities we choose though is still very open to debate.

Those hammers should go to beakers though - no?

 

[ChrisShaffer]

You'll be happy to know there are no roads connecting Thebes to Brennus' empire.

 

[neilmeister]

Good news

Is that the result of you ripping them up, or them not existing in the first place?


@ SH
Once Commerce has built it Observatory & Salon, the next building to help beakers is Laboratory. I don't think we will have the cities building raw beakers, maybe at the end, but probably not.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

They just weren't there.

Hammurabi is now the worst enemy of Saladin.

 

[Trystero]

Yes indeed, poor SB, but we don't want all of his cities, just 1 for now.

You won't feel so sorry for him after he starts poisoning our water supply.