SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

If we run Bur for the next 40 turns only, Paris will have generated a total of extra 1100 commerce more than Commerce will have over the life of the game. Assuming an 1800 finish date (around turn 320 I THINK?) Commerce will need to provide an average of an extra 11 extra commerce per turn on average from the moment we switch over to FS.

Looks though because Commerce won't be getting much commerce? Wrong because FS will be adding an average of +2commerce to each of its 16 cottage tiles much faster than Paris will to its maximum 12 cottages, 5 of which haven't been built and two of which still aren't hamlets! So while Paris will be enjoying an extra 10 or so commerce for a big majority of the next couple of turns alongside the growth of the cottages (which is minimal), commerce will be getting an extra 32 commerce MUCH sooner than Paris.

It was agreed that adopting FS will be a better benefit when we have around 16 towns I believe. My plan doesn't show that many. To also bear in mind is that we will be killing off AI and taking their towns as well!

Argument here tends to get wishy washy :lol: But the idea is there. Plus, I'm sleepy after an all nighter and one night of 4 hours sleep in a row :lol:

Conclusion: It seems that a sooner rather than later adoption to FS may be needed here. Following that, Commerce should build Oxford. It will probably shave 2-3 turns off of our finish date.
 
Alrighty. I'm going to mini-turn this:

part -turn mini plan copyright by Revent

Bombard Vienne with the 3 Trebs, and take it with 3 Maces.
Then ask Brennus for a cease-fire.

And then report back. We'll figure out where to move all the units in preparation for a Brennus smack down.

Much thanks to Revent for covering my butt. :goodjob:
 
Greens from me and Revent obviously for mini-plan.

I'm happy with OU in Commerce.

We should just whip the Uni in Commerce in 3 turns for max overflow into OU, and not worry about Stone. It must work both PH mines for 2 turns iirc.
Need to go round and whip any other Uni's required to allow Commerce to start OU the turn after (not GP Farm) though. Clams need to work some mines for a few turns to do less than a 4 pop whip.


edit: x-post.
 
First Part of Turn 167 (EXCELLENT NEWS)

CivFanatics Log:

Spoiler :
Here is your Session Turn Log from 1060 AD to 1070 AD:

Turn 166, 1060 AD: Paris can hurry Salon for 4⇴ with 12ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 71 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Production can hurry University for 4⇴ with 19ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 74 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Commerce has grown to size 12.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Clams has grown to size 7.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: West Fish can hurry Confucian Monastery for 2⇴ with 36ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 51 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Barb City will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: West Coast Silk has grown to size 6.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: West Coast Silk has become unhappy.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Wheat can hurry Courthouse for 2⇴ with 16ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 34 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Bibracte has been pacified.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Bibracte can hurry Forge for 3⇴ with 14ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Tolosa has been pacified.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Tolosa can hurry Forge for 3⇴ with 16ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Hammurabi has 70 gold available for trade.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Saladin has 50 gold available for trade.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Barb City will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Hammurabi has 70 gold available for trade.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Saladin has 50 gold available for trade.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: You are the worst enemy of Saladin.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Ramesses II is the worst enemy of Brennus.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus is the worst enemy of Ramesses II.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Will Trade Map: Brennus, Hammurabi, Sitting Bull
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Will Sign Peace Treaty: Brennus
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Deal Canceled: Fish to Sitting Bull for Gold Per Turn (1)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) (8.00) vs Brennus's Longbowman (1.20)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Combat Odds: 100.0%
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Longbowman is hit for 29 (0/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) has defeated Brennus's Longbowman!
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Your Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) has destroyed a Longbowman!
Turn 166, 1060 AD: West Fish will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Barb City will grow to size 9 on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Wheat will grow to size 3 on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Red Fish Blue F will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: You have constructed a Confucian Monastery in West Fish. Work has now begun on a University.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: You have constructed a Forge in Bibracte. Work has now begun on Buddhist Missionary.
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Cimmerian (Barbarian) has been captured by the Chinese Empire!!!
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme (2.20) vs Louis XIV's Caravel 1 (Clams) (3.30)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Combat Odds: 9.9%
Turn 166, 1060 AD: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: (Plot Defense: +10%)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Louis XIV's Caravel 1 (Clams) is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Brennus's Trireme is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 166, 1060 AD: Louis XIV's Caravel 1 (Clams) has defeated Brennus's Trireme!
Turn 166, 1060 AD: While defending, your Caravel 1 (Clams) has killed a Celtic Trireme!
Turn 166, 1060 AD: A Forge in Tolosa was destroyed by enemy infiltrators!

Turn 167, 1070 AD: A French Spy 2 (Production) has been stumbled upon while operating near the Arabian city of Najran!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: The enemy has been spotted near Bibracte!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Production has become unhappy.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Commerce has become unhappy.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Clams will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Barb City has grown to size 9.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Barb City has become unhappy.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Zhou can hurry Salon for 3⇴ with 32ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 46 turns.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: West Coast Silk has become happy.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Red Fish Blue F has grown to size 5.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Qin Shi Huang has 60 gold available for trade.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Hammurabi is the worst enemy of Saladin.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: The borders of Bibracte are about to expand.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: The borders of Sugar Gems are about to expand.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Clams will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Qin Shi Huang has 60 gold available for trade.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Saladin has 50 gold available for trade.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Ramesses II is the worst enemy of Brennus.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Hammurabi is the worst enemy of Saladin.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus is the worst enemy of Ramesses II.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: The borders of Bibracte are about to expand.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: The borders of Sugar Gems are about to expand.
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Will Trade Map: Brennus, Hammurabi, Sitting Bull
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Will Sign Peace Treaty: Brennus
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Trebuchet 4 (Paris) has reduced the defenses of Vienne to 52%!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Trebuchet 5 (Production) has reduced the defenses of Vienne to 44%!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Trebuchet 6 (Commerce) has reduced the defenses of Vienne to 36%!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) (8.00) vs Brennus's Archer (5.58)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Combat Odds: 85.9%
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Plot Defense: +36%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Archer is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Archer is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Archer is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Archer is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Archer is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) has defeated Brennus's Archer!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 2 (Wheat) (8.00) vs Brennus's Axeman (6.30)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Combat Odds: 75.9%
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Plot Defense: +36%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Combat: +75%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Axeman is hit for 22 (78/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Axeman is hit for 22 (56/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 2 (Wheat) is hit for 17 (83/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 2 (Wheat) is hit for 17 (66/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Axeman is hit for 22 (34/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Axeman is hit for 22 (12/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Axeman is hit for 22 (0/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 2 (Wheat) has defeated Brennus's Axeman!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Maceman 2 (Wheat) has destroyed a Axeman!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) (8.00) vs Brennus's Gallic Warrior (4.83)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Combat Odds: 96.1%
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Plot Defense: +36%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) is hit for 15 (55/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Gallic Warrior is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Gallic Warrior is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) is hit for 15 (40/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Gallic Warrior is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Brennus's Gallic Warrior is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Louis XIV's Maceman 3 (Paris) has defeated Brennus's Gallic Warrior!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: Your Maceman 3 (Paris) has destroyed a Gallic Warrior!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: You have captured Vienne!!!
Turn 167, 1070 AD: You have made peace with Brennus!


Buffy Log:

Spoiler :

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 167/500 (1070 AD) [19-Nov-2012 21:50:38]
While attacking in Celtic territory at Vienne, Maceman 1 (West Coast Silk) (5.44/8) defeats Celtic Archer (Prob Victory: 85.9%)
While attacking in Celtic territory at Vienne, Maceman 2 (Wheat) (5.28/8) defeats Celtic Axeman (Prob Victory: 75.9%)
While attacking in Celtic territory at Vienne, Maceman 3 (Paris) (3.20/8) defeats Celtic Gallic Warrior (Prob Victory: 96.1%)
Buddhism has been removed: Vienne (Celtic Empire)
Buddhism has spread: Vienne
Confucianism has spread: Vienne
Captured Vienne (Brennus)
Louis XIV (France) and Brennus (Celtia) have signed a peace treaty


Taking Vienne:

Spoiler :
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0 losses later:

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Maybe we can work us out a deal:

Spoiler :
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The save uploaded is the newest one. Again, much thanks to Revent!
 
Revent, Benginal.... I love you :love:
 
Beg for his worldmap so we can see his last city. If not buy it for 5 or 10?
Hmmm....bribing him against Rams for Paper and 360 gold DOES seem appealing, but at the same time, it's going to cost us a lot of turns tech wise since we won't be able to run deficit for even longer and the gain will be a gamble as well imo. A very likely one albeit....

Things are looking great now! :D The ceasefire was a really good idea! :)
 
DON'T beg, that will sign a peace treaty.
 
Yeah, just pay him 10 or 20 gold, do NOT beg.

It's not clear to me what we gain from bribing him into war with Ramesses. Won't that just spark Ramesses to build units? And we want to kill his stack NOW, not watch it march back to Egypt.
 
Bibracte will pop its borders next turn, CameraDumDum in 2, Tolosa in 3......

So where is the Brennus SoD going to end up?

Move all Maces/X-bows/Pikes to the plains hamelt next to the 2 pigs (2S of Tolosa) hamlet 1S of where Brennus is now (1NW of Bibracte).
Doesn't matter where he goes, we can reach it from this tile next turn without crossing a river

The ONLY exception to this is if he moves to the Copper, and our Bibracte borders then expand, forcing him into the fort. I presume he will move before our borders pop??

edit: crap, just accidentally deleted the micro....
 
Good play Benginal.

:goodjob: Great call on the Cease Fire Revent.

And I think perhaps we underestimated the gameplay of the AI a little there. It was a clever move to attack 3 cities with his stack from the forest in the middle.

The good news is that we have his big cities and the horse. I like the fact that he is pleased with us after we just conquered over half his empire. :lol:

The bad news is that his stack is still there and he will get a breather to regroup and gen a few more LBs. I am glad that we didn't spread ourselves any thinner than we did.

Hammy now has Optics so it is not long before he knows Brens and Rams. Hopefully they will not become friends. The religious difference should prevent this. But no more trading with either IMHO.
 
Yes - no benefit to bribing into war at this point. He just gets a good tech and he may trade or sell to Egypt or Hammy if he meets.
Just need to find his stack exposed after a border pop and attack. That should do it. We should not wait long as the clock is ticking and we need to start on Egypt next.
 
Micro
Sell map to Sally & Qin
Trade maps with Brennus
Work both mines in Commerce, give grass village back to Paris
Work both mines in Clams, so it can whip the 3 pop whip the Uni
Whip Barb City this turn
Libs for both West Coast Sugar & Wheat
Remove spy in Red Fish Blue F
 
If we run Bur for the next 40 turns only, Paris will have generated a total of extra 1100 commerce more than Commerce will have over the life of the game. Assuming an 1800 finish date (around turn 320 I THINK?)
I suspect that the finish will be sooner. We have conquered half of Brennus in 8 turns. Figure another 8-10 to finish him off. After a short rest (3-4 turns to regroup and heal) figure another 10 to take Egypt. After that a game plan to either conquer or capitulate SB and his religious soulmate Sally (who Qin could be bribed into war with - more diplo points) for the votes (AP or UN). Then use Qin as a trading partner to the end.

Looks though because Commerce won't be getting much commerce? Wrong because FS will be adding an average of +2commerce to each of its 16 cottage tiles much faster than Paris will to its maximum 12 cottages, 5 of which haven't been built and two of which still aren't hamlets! So while Paris will be enjoying an extra 10 or so commerce for a big majority of the next couple of turns alongside the growth of the cottages (which is minimal), commerce will be getting an extra 32 commerce MUCH sooner than Paris.

It was agreed that adopting FS will be a better benefit when we have around 16 towns I believe. My plan doesn't show that many. To also bear in mind is that we will be killing off AI and taking their towns as well!
This is correct, all the +2 commerce towns across our empire will far outweigh the 50% commerce in our capital. This make FS far more desirable than Bureau in a large empire even ignoring the culture benefit. And since Commerce can generate more raw commerce than Paris, it is the best choice for Oxford. It would be nice to get to Emancipation for faster cottage/hamlet/village growth, but I think we should let the AI research the top end of the tech tree for us.

PS. I still think we should seriously consider the AP.
 
I suspect that the finish will be sooner. We have conquered half of Brennus in 8 turns. Figure another 8-10 to finish him off. After a short rest (3-4 turns to regroup and heal) figure another 10 to take Egypt. After that a game plan to either conquer or capitulate SB and his religious soulmate Sally (who Qin could be bribed into war with - more diplo points) for the votes (AP or UN). Then use Qin as a trading partner to the end.

Yes, this all sounds about right to me. Once the SoD is hopefully crippled next turn, we can accelerate taking Brennus down. Go for Gergovia & Dunrovaria at the same time, then Isca & Bagacum simultaneously. Lastly Thebes & Duro.

Thebes will be an excellent launching point for Ramesses, simply as it allows us to have 2 SoD's in his lands heading for Memphis & Heliopolis at the same time.

This is correct, all the +2 commerce towns across our empire will far outweigh the 50% commerce in our capital. This make FS far more desirable than Bureau in a large empire even ignoring the culture benefit. And since Commerce can generate more raw commerce than Paris, it is the best choice for Oxford. It would be nice to get to Emancipation for faster cottage/hamlet/village growth, but I think we should let the AI research the top end of the tech tree for us.

PS. I still think we should seriously consider the AP.

Yep, FS will rock!

edit: I could support building AP. Zhou perhaps?
 
Micro
Sell map to Sally & Qin
Trade maps with Brennus
Work both mines in Commerce, give grass village back to Paris
Work both mines in Clams, so it can whip the 3 pop whip the Uni
Whip Barb City this turn
Libs for both West Coast Sugar & Wheat
Remove spy in Red Fish Blue F

Agree with all except Libs. At this point with 50% research they will generate +3 and +1 beaker respectively. They both have exactly 1 cottage that can be worked now and both have Forges and Barracks. These seem more like unit whipping stations. We will need more units in the short term for quicker destruction of Brens and Rams. Plus we will need more Galleons for the overseas invasion. I know the libs are cheap, but 2 LBs are worth more than 4 bpt IMO.
 
OK, I don't know if we really need more units for conquering, Vienne was a great example, no losses.
We will need MP's though, how about whipping some chariots fo MP duty.

I would like to get some more basic infra into our little cities. We aren't going to be in Slavery forever.
 
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