SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

[ChrisShaffer]

Tech path: Math for 7 turns at 0% (check for math trades every turn). Pause when GP is born in Paris

If a GS: Bulb Machinery, and Math > Calendar at 100%, move slider to 0% for Optics until we have enough gold accumulated to research at 100%

If a GPro: Pause for more team discussion.

No need to pause if it is a scientist. Strike the line "Pause when GP is born in Paris" from the above.

(How do we respond if Brennus asks us to join the war? I would agree to the demand, but run a "phony" war. That is, send no troops)

Agreed.

GP Farm - Whip Forge in 2 turns, overflow into NE > then Harbor

Change to: Assign deer to scientist, slow grow and slow build the Forge in 3 turns -> partial NE -> Harbor turn GP will be born -> whip Harbor -> NE

Production - Whip settler for Iron Wheat > Parthenon > Caravel

Why whip the settler? Every citizen is working power tiles, and the happy cap will be 11 happy / 9 citizens in 3 turns. I prefer building two settlers and two workboats, whipping into the Parthenon only when we have 2+ population working non-power-tiles. This also gets us our second settler and two workboats for the two-fish-tundra site.

Commerce - Finish Market (12 turns) > Buddhist missionary, due in ~18 turns > Buddhist Monastery?

Build the missionary somewhere else, where there are hammers. This city should Finish Market -> Buddhist Monastery.

East Fish - Whip Forge next turn start Harbor > Lighthouse > Library > Temple

This is the only city that can build Confucian missionaries. Should we go ahead and spread Confucianism to our eventual cathedral cities now, while we are in Organized Religion and it doesn't require a monastery?

Sugar Clams - Change to WB and WHIP at pop 2 > Granary > Forge > Harbor

Is this workboat for Orleans?

Zhou - Granary > Forge > Moai

Not convinced Moai is best here, but it could be nice. I'd rather have it in two-fish-tundra.

workers on Barb island cottage Zhou (no chops until Math), improve iron, mine hillls pre-mine PHF worker is already standing on, make sure workers always road/cancel while moving.

East Fish is working a non-cottaged flood plain. I think cottaging this tile (2N of East Fish) should be high priority.

What to do with spies if we are not stealing tech? Send one to Tolosa for possible Treasury steal, and scout with the other? One could be stationed in one of our cities for counter-espionage after Ramesses is eliminated.

Pull them both back and keep them both in our cities for counter-espionage.

Pause points:

Great Person born in Paris

No need to pause if the GP is a scientist.

 

[neilmeister]

@ Maoi
It would take 6 maximum overflow whips to get Maoi in 2 Fish.
29 hammers with 50% bonus = 43. 250/43 = 5.81

2 Fish has 1 hpt, so it will take a very long time to get to the max overflow point using buildings.
- for the Granary, it will take 29 turns.
- for the Forge, it will take 29 turns.
...

What we could do is crappy Units though.
- for an Axe/Spear, 4 turns for max overflow from 2 pop whip.

We might be able to achieve this within the happy cap, especially if we get Calendar happiness.


But my main objections to Maoi in 2 Fish are
1. that at pop 10, it will have 10 hammers, Zhou at pop 10 will have 15 hammers. Maoi will make Zhou a 'production' city.
2. Zhou can whip its way to Maoi whipping Buildings.
3. 2 Fish is a specialist site, we don't really want to work that many ocean tiles, I would rather have it working 2 Fish and 5 specialists


edit: I want to run through the numbers of the GP Farm pops GS first plan, then I will respond to that idea

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Ok, Moai in Zhou is OK. I still think we should build two fish sooner.

 

[Benginal]

Why whip the settler? Every citizen is working power tiles, and the happy cap will be 11 happy / 9 citizens in 3 turns. I prefer building two settlers and two workboats, whipping into the Parthenon only when we have 2+ population working non-power-tiles. This also gets us our second settler and two workboats for the two-fish-tundra site.

I voted for whipping the settler since I want to get the Parthenon as soon as possible. Whipping isn't that costly in my eyes since we'd whip away a plains hill mine and a flood plain cottage that commerce now has the pop to work itself. And with fish, deer, sheep and a granary it will grow back pretty quickly. Whipping also gets us the settler faster. And that settler will go to mainland iron/wheat/river which I think will be a great city.

On the other hand, getting the two fish city settled sooner rather than later could be good. But I'd rather not risk losing the Parthenon than get two fish city ~15 turns sooner.

 

[neilmeister]

Ok, Moai in Zhou is OK. I still think we should build two fish sooner.

Yes I agree. The extra settler just dropped of the radar when we were discussing the PPP.

I also really like your suggestion of East Fish producing at least 1 missionary, it could perhaps do it from the whip overflow from the forge.

Still working the GP numbers...... its complicated

 

[neilmeister]

I voted for whipping the settler since I want to get the Parthenon as soon as possible. Whipping isn't that costly in my eyes since we'd whip away a plains hill mine and a flood plain cottage that commerce now has the pop to work itself. And with fish, deer, sheep and a granary it will grow back pretty quickly. Whipping also gets us the settler faster. And that settler will go to mainland iron/wheat/river which I think will be a great city.

On the other hand, getting the two fish city settled sooner rather than later could be good. But I'd rather not risk losing the Parthenon than get two fish city ~15 turns sooner.

I agree about Production, in 2 turns after whip we regain 1 pop, working the PH. The FP cottage can go to Commerce. In 7 turns from now it gains another pop, Engineer probably. Keep going until we get Parthenon in 11-12 turns from now.

2 Fish settler can come out of somewhere else. Barb City after Forge maybe.

 

[neilmeister]

Regardless of when Paris pops its GP, it will be in the 54-61% range. So poor odds either way.

It is wasteful is having Paris working 2 specialists, for an extra 12 turns, to increase the odds 7%.

If it worked cottages instead, in these 12 turns, 2 new cottages would be hamlets, Paris would be 2 population bigger and we would even almost as many beakers beakers (from extra pop working cottages).


The abbreviated tech path relies on a GS to bulb Machinery, and at least 1 to part bulb Astro.

Math > Calendar > Machinery (bulb) > Optics > Astro (bulb)

Current plan was 7 turns 0%, IF we get a GS in Paris, then 3 turns 100% to get Maths & Calendar in 10 turns. Bulb Machinery with GS, then start binary research on Optics.

If we miss a GS from Paris, then we can keep researching Maths at 0% for a few more turns, until the (more likely) GS is popped from GP Farm. Optics will be completed in the same time.

Alternate plan is 7 turns 0%, NO GS in Paris, so 3 more turns at 0%, then 2 turns 100% to get Maths & Calendar in 12 turns. Bulb Machinery with GS from GP Farm, then research on Optics, but with more money in the bank, so less turns at 0%.


Either way, we get to Optics the same turn.
edit:
IF Paris does pop GS, then the GP Farm GS can do the Astro bulb, then we have another 15 or so turns research to get Astro
IF Paris does not pop GS, then start research on Astro, and use the 2nd GP Farm GS to bulb Astro in another 13 turns when it arrives

Either way, 1 GS bulbing Machinery, another doing Astro, with ~15 turns researching Astro as well.





The numbers for those interested
All of the numbers below do not include a Parthenon, as that just further complicates things.

GP out of GP Farm first
GP Farm pops in 6 turns, at 75% odds of a GS.
Paris pops in 19 turns, at 61% chance of GS.
GP Farm also would pop in 26 turns, at 87% odds of a GS

GP from Paris first
Paris will pop in 7 turns, at 54% chance of a GS
GP Farm pops in 12 turns, at 78% odds of a GS
GP Farm pops again in 25 turns, at 87% odds of a GS



GP out of GP Farm first working
105 gpp's in bank in GP Farm
2 turns at 16gpp, assign GH Mine to specialist (gives max 2 pop whip o/f in 2 turns)
Growth, WHIP, work 2 specialists and 2 PH mines.
4 turns at 16gpp, (GP popped now at 75%)
6 turns at 16gpp, (NE finished now, 12 turns from now)
7 turns at 32gpp, GS popped if Paris doesn't

150 gpp's in bank in Paris
19 turns at 8ggp, GS at 61% odds.



GP from Paris first working
105 gpp's in bank in GP Farm
1 turns at 13gpp,
1 turn at 16gpp, any 2 mines need to be reassigned to a specialist & ocean to get 2 pop whip with o/f
Growth, WHIP, work all mines & resources and no specialists.
2 turns at 10gpp
3 turns at 13gpp, (at the end of 8 turns we have 193gpp's, Paris definitely pops first)
3 turns at 16gpp, (NE finished now, 10 turns from now)
2 turns at 32gpp, GS popped at 78% odds

150 gpp's in bank in Paris
7 turns at 8ggp, GS at 54% odds.

 

[neilmeister]

Oh, and swap Iron Clams for Sugar Clams, I got them mixed up.
Iron Clams should switch to WB and whip it, not Sugar.

We really need names we aren't going to mix up. Iron Clams could be 'Humbaba' and other city simply 'Sugar', as we already have a 'Clams' city.

Agreed that Commerce can build monasteries, not missionaries.

 

[Trystero]

Updated plan. Incorporates some of Chris' suggestions. Assumes we stick with the GP in Paris plans. Changed city names.

Other issues

-Do I build Confucian missionaries in East Fish after harbor?
-Where to insert another settler for 2 Fish Island?

PPP: t123-???

Technologies:

Math > Calendar > Machinery (bulb)> Optics > Start CoL (or Construction) > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb) (this is more aggressive, but gets us +2 happy 15 turns earlier)

Tech path: Math for 7 turns at 0% (check for math trades every turn).

If a GS: Bulb Machinery, and Math > Calendar at 100%, move slider to 0% for Optics until we have enough gold accumulated to research at 100%

If a GPro: Pause for more team discussion.

Dealing with AIs

Sell Alphabet to Ramesses this turn.

If Brennus asks us to join the war, agree to the demand but run a "phony" war (send no troops).

City placement and builds:

Paris - Finish Buddhist temple (2 turns) > Harbor > Market > Caravel (as soon as Optics is done)

GP Farm - Whip Forge in 2 turns, overflow into NE > then Harbor

Micro for GPP:
105 gpp's in bank in GP Farm
1 turns at 13gpp,
1 turn at 16gpp, any 2 mines need to be reassigned to a specialist & ocean to get 2 pop whip with o/f
Growth, WHIP, work all mines & resources and no specialists.
2 turns at 10gpp
3 turns at 13gpp, (at the end of 8 turns we have 193gpp's, Paris definitely pops first)
3 turns at 16gpp, (NE finished now, 10 turns from now)
2 turns at 32gpp, GS popped at 78% odds​

Production - Whip settler for Wheat City > Parthenon > Caravel

Commerce - Finish Market (12 turns) > Buddhist monastery

Clams - Forge > Harbor > Lighthouse > Temple

Barb City - Whip Forge for max overflow > Buddhist missionary, due in 2 turns with whip overflow > Settler for 2 Fish > Whip Harbor > Temple

East Fish - Whip Forge next turn start Confucian missionary (for Paris) > Harbor > Lighthouse > Library > Temple

Humbaba (Orleans) - Change to WB (for the clams here) and WHIP at pop 2 > Granary > Forge > Harbor

Zhou - Granary > Forge > Moai

Sugar City (Lyons) - Granary > Forge > Lighthouse > Harbor

Iron Wheat City will be settled on the riverside tile where Chariot 10 is currently positioned. Build order Granary > Forge > Library

General micro:

-2 workers at Clams finish cottage and then move to Iron Wheat: go via the last non-cottaged FP in Commerce, road to wheat, (wheat won't be in cutural borders for another 10 turns)
-workers at Commerce finish FP cottaging, road the tile they are on cottage river-side plains tiles
-workers in Paris cottage grassland tiles and river-side plains tiles, send one to Barb City, cottage riverside plains, cottage FP's when possible
-workers on Barb island cottage Zhou (no chops until Math), improve iron, mine hillls pre-mine PHF worker is already standing on, make sure workers always road/cancel while moving. Cottaging 2N of East Fish should be high priority

-spies return to Paris and Commerce for counter-espionage

Civics and religion

Ignore requests from Ramasses to switch religions.

War

see above

Bigger picture:

Get to Optics quickly and get caravels out exploring.
Build NE and Parthenon to get GS out faster. Bulb to Astronomy and pursue Liberalism.
Avoid capturing Ramesses cities now are as they are too far away.

Pause points:

Great Prophet born in Paris
Met new AIs
AI DOW

Edits in Blue

 

[neilmeister]

Updated plan. Incorporates some of Chris' suggestions. Assumes we stick with the GP in Paris plans. Changed city names.

Other issues

-Do I build Confucian missionaries in East Fish after harbor?
-Where to insert another settler for 2 Fish Island?

My votes are:

- Confused mish immediately after Forge in East Fish. I suggest sending it to Paris, as it has enough hammers, and won't be used for Wonder production.
- Settler from Barb City, after buddhist Mish (for Zhou), and before Harbor.

edit: GP Farm micro in tiny text on my last long post.
edit: Can I suggest 'Wheat' instead of 'Iron Wheat' as well.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

Happy with the plan, except for Paris GP first. Neil, can you restate your analysis of GP? As I read it, GP first in GP Farm results in higher probability of GS across the board?

 

[Trystero]

My votes are:

- Confused mish immediately after Forge in East Fish. I suggest sending it to Paris, as it has enough hammers, and won't be used for Wonder production.
- Settler from Barb City, after buddhist Mish (for Zhou), and before Harbor.

edit: GP Farm micro in tiny text on my last long post.
edit: Can I suggest 'Wheat' instead of 'Iron Wheat' as well.

OK - changes made in my post above.

 

[Benginal]

City Name Suggestions: Landlocked, West Coast Sugar, Fake Humba, Zhou, Two Fish

Question: To add to the confusion. What are we doing with the GP if it's a Great Prophet. If it's a Great Prophet we could start a golden age. Could that get us 3 Great Scientists for all the bulbs we need?

Also, I really like having Neil on our team. I feel like he's our RA (research assistant for those not in the hell that is the academy)! Thanks Neil!!

 

[Revent]

Regardless of when Paris pops its GP, it will be in the 54-61% range. So poor odds either way.

It is wasteful is having Paris working 2 specialists, for an extra 12 turns, to increase the odds 7%.
[/SIZE]

I'll be more willing to gamble on 61% Your calculations assume 12 turns of 2 scientists in Paris whilst we need only 6 turns of them. Therefore, the gain is less than half that you have mentioned and probably is outweighed by an increased 7% chance (although that no longer matters if we pop a priest).

 

[Trystero]

Question: To add to the confusion. What are we doing with the GP if it's a Great Prophet. If it's a Great Prophet we could start a golden age. Could that get us 3 Great Scientists for all the bulbs we need?

I would think we would need to save it for a shrine.

I will let you guys argue over how we are going to make the GP.

 

[neilmeister]

I have re-ordered the gp analysis, so they have the same order in both. Paris, GP Farm, GP Farm.

GP out of GP Farm first
Paris pops in 19 turns, at 61% chance of GS.
GP Farm pops in 6 turns, at 75% odds of a GS.
GP Farm again in 26 turns, at 87% odds of a GS

GP from Paris first
Paris will pop in 7 turns, at 54% chance of a GS. 7% lower odds of GS than above
GP Farm pops in 12 turns, at 78% odds of a GS. 3% higher odds of GS
GP Farm again in 25 turns, at 87% odds of a GS. same odds.

So it isn't improved odds across the board. Better in Paris, worse in GP Farm. or vice versa depending on your perspective

I'll be more willing to gamble on 61% Your calculations assume 12 turns of 2 scientists in Paris whilst we need only 6 turns of them. Therefore, the gain is less than half that you have mentioned and probably is outweighed by an increased 7% chance (although that no longer matters if we pop a priest).

I'm a bit confused. Its one or the other.
We need 2 scientists in Paris for the next:
- 19 turns to get 61% chance of GS IF we pop the first GP from GP Farm.
- 7 turns to get 54% chance of GS IF we pop the first GP from Paris.


After lots of analysis, my main argument is based on a few points:

1) the fact is we need a GS before 13 turns. If we get a GS, from anywhere, in the next 13 turns, we can research Optics at 100% and finish it in 17 turns from now.
If we do the GP Farm plan first, then we have 75% chance of getting this GS. If we get a GM (the other 25%) then we are screwed, as we have to wait another 7 turns for the Paris GP, which is still only 61%. This is a big risk.
Yes, we have roughly the same chances the other way, but at least we will know where we stand much earlier (before we even finish Maths)

2) Paris has/will have cottages, gold & mines. It is a generic commerce city. Spending an extra 12 turns to get a great person is wasting its potential to grow 2 more and develop several cottages and for what. Only 7% increase. (edit: and 3% decrease in GP Farm)
GP Farm has lots of food (and currently lots of hammers to build NE, TGL...). It is built for great people generation.

edit:
3) Think of it this way. Just assume that the Paris great person IS a prophet (which it has a very good chance of being). What plan would you take then? 'Paris first' increase the odds of a GS in GP Farm to 78%. This is the GS we really need.

 

[neilmeister]

City Name Suggestions: Landlocked, West Coast Sugar, Fake Humba, Zhou, Two Fish

Question: To add to the confusion. What are we doing with the GP if it's a Great Prophet. If it's a Great Prophet we could start a golden age. Could that get us 3 Great Scientists for all the bulbs we need?

Also, I really like having Neil on our team. I feel like he's our RA (research assistant for those not in the hell that is the academy)! Thanks Neil!!

Its my pleasure. I do quite like crunching the numbers, but I definitely need the rest of you making suggestions, so I know what to crunch. I can be a bit blinkered sometimes.

I could go with all of those names, I just want something so I know what city we are talking about without looking at the map.

I would think we would need to save it for a shrine.

I will let you guys argue over how we are going to make the GP.

Definitely save it for a shrine. If Brennus and Ramesses give us 3 shrines, we can use it for a golden age later on.

 

[Revent]

Oh sorry, you can tell, I need to get some sleep!

Yeah, you're right. My apologies.

I guess what route we take depends on how much everyone here values 7% For me, it is quite significant and worth a gamble which is why I'll go for it. Plus, a merchant will be a lot more useful than a priest since Brennus will most likely build shrines for us.

If we get the wrong great person, have we considered changing plans? For example, get CoL and then go via that route instead? Use GM to bulb CS. I think it would be a good back up plan rather than going through all that waiting for a GS wasting precious turns.

 

[neilmeister]

I posted my edit at the same time as your post, (one of the reasons edits can be dangerous).

From above:

3) Think of it this way. Just assume that the Paris great person IS a prophet (which it has a very good chance of being). What plan would you take then? 'Paris first' increase the odds of a GS in GP Farm to 78%. This is the GS we really need.


'Paris first' gives us a 89.9% (1 / (46% * 22%)) chance of getting a GS in the next 12 turns, 1 turn before we really need it.
'GP Farm first' gives us a 90.25% (1 / (39% * 25%)) chance of getting a GS in the next 19 turns, 6 turns after we really need it.

 

[Trystero]

I think Neil's arguments are pretty persuasive, so I would vote for the GP in Paris plan outlined above (if we are putting this to a vote).

And just so I am understanding this correctly: We need to research/obtain Math > Calendar in order to bulb Machinery, since both come before Machinery in the GS bulbing order, yes?

(i.e. a GS right now would bulb Math, if we research Math it would bulb Calendar. Only after researching both would a GS bulb Machinery)