We need it to unlock the HE. Any battle with the odd <90% means an uncertain battle.
SGOTM 19 - Also Sprach Sid
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
We need it to unlock the HE. Any battle with the odd <90% means an uncertain battle.
You would need to run tests to show that attacking first with the City Raider II Axe works best. The only argument I can see is that the unpromoted Axe consistently fails to wound the top defender. (In that case, we might consider attacking first with a CR I or Combat I Axe.)
I offered my attack order for a few reasons. In general, the CR II Axe is best left for battles that are in the middle of the XP.
(1) Attacking the first, unwounded defender:
(2) Attacking a slightly wounded Archer:
Test 1: using the CR II = 10.6% odds increase
Test 2: using the CR II = 27.4% odds increase
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It is also better to preserve veterans wherever possible. If, in Test 2, the CR II Axe survives, he will promote to CR III. That will give us an Axe with a +75% city attack boost. If the unpromoted Axe survives, he will promote to CR I. That will us an Axe with a +20% city attack boost.
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Finally, a CR III Axe would unlock the Heroic Epic.
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As ever, I am always open to changing my mind.
But if you want to go against the team's consensus, tests or strong arguments should be offered.
And since battles are RNG based, we have to accept that even the best laid plans will sometimes go awry.
I offered my attack order for a few reasons. In general, the CR II Axe is best left for battles that are in the middle of the XP.
(1) Attacking the first, unwounded defender:
Spoiler :
(2) Attacking a slightly wounded Archer:
Spoiler :
Test 1: using the CR II = 10.6% odds increase
Test 2: using the CR II = 27.4% odds increase
---
It is also better to preserve veterans wherever possible. If, in Test 2, the CR II Axe survives, he will promote to CR III. That will give us an Axe with a +75% city attack boost. If the unpromoted Axe survives, he will promote to CR I. That will us an Axe with a +20% city attack boost.
---
Finally, a CR III Axe would unlock the Heroic Epic.
---
As ever, I am always open to changing my mind.
But if you want to go against the team's consensus, tests or strong arguments should be offered. And since battles are RNG based, we have to accept that even the best laid plans will sometimes go awry.
If we capture Constantinople, should we reconsider the location of TGL?
It could depend on whether the Granary is saved. But regardless:
Let's say that we need ~5 turns for the city to leave revolt. The timing would roughly coincide with Literature, +1/–1 turn.
The city will receive a border pop in 2 turns, as the Buddhist holy city.
Two Forests are pre-roaded. It would be easy to move Workers into the area (one is already there, we may be able to capture a second; three Workers are in the vicinity of Case Depart/Sheepish; Workers roading to the Horse site can chop northern Forests).
The city has twice as many Forests (14) compared to the capital (7).
I don't think we risk losing the wonder, since neither the Pyramids nor the Temple of Artemis (or Chichen Itza/HG/the Parthenon/SoZ) have been built.
Building a Library would be a hammer sink, and it would be a struggle to generate much in the way of
OF.
The payoff is that we have a city with +14F surplus at size 4 (Pigs/Rice/Wheat/FFPs). Compare that with the capital, which, with Civil Service, can manage +10F. I also count eight possible Grassland farms. Our capital has zero, if we cottage instead. If we don't cottage, we'd have three.
Finally, Constantinople has TGW. This is a good thing, in terms of
. This is bad, in terms of GP pollution.
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@Folket
My post explains why keeping the City Raider II Axe back increases the odds that we will capture the city. The advantage of the promotion is magnified against weaker units, in those battles where the outcome is still uncertain (i.e. those in the 50–90% victory range):
I also suggest that : "[if] the unpromoted Axe consistently fails to wound the top defender... we might consider attacking first with a CR I or Combat I Axe."
This would be a very useful test to run. If attacking with an unpromoted unit often inflicts zero damage, whereas using a promoted unit consistently inflicts some damage, then I would prefer to use a Combat I / City Raider I Axeman first.
It could depend on whether the Granary is saved. But regardless:
Let's say that we need ~5 turns for the city to leave revolt. The timing would roughly coincide with Literature, +1/–1 turn.
The city will receive a border pop in 2 turns, as the Buddhist holy city.
Two Forests are pre-roaded. It would be easy to move Workers into the area (one is already there, we may be able to capture a second; three Workers are in the vicinity of Case Depart/Sheepish; Workers roading to the Horse site can chop northern Forests).
The city has twice as many Forests (14) compared to the capital (7).
I don't think we risk losing the wonder, since neither the Pyramids nor the Temple of Artemis (or Chichen Itza/HG/the Parthenon/SoZ) have been built.
Building a Library would be a hammer sink, and it would be a struggle to generate much in the way of
OF.The payoff is that we have a city with +14F surplus at size 4 (Pigs/Rice/Wheat/FFPs). Compare that with the capital, which, with Civil Service, can manage +10F. I also count eight possible Grassland farms. Our capital has zero, if we cottage instead. If we don't cottage, we'd have three.
Finally, Constantinople has TGW. This is a good thing, in terms of
. This is bad, in terms of GP pollution.----
@Folket
My post explains why keeping the City Raider II Axe back increases the odds that we will capture the city. The advantage of the promotion is magnified against weaker units, in those battles where the outcome is still uncertain (i.e. those in the 50–90% victory range):
Spoiler :
I also suggest that : "[if] the unpromoted Axe consistently fails to wound the top defender... we might consider attacking first with a CR I or Combat I Axe."
This would be a very useful test to run. If attacking with an unpromoted unit often inflicts zero damage, whereas using a promoted unit consistently inflicts some damage, then I would prefer to use a Combat I / City Raider I Axeman first.
The problems of building TGL in Constantinople:
The major benefit of building TGL and NE there is from NE, which is not that great since we will only run limited turns of CS + Pacifism + golden age. As I said previous, the value of more GPs is uncertain, either 1 more GS or nothing, which also depends on whether the GPs or beakers are the bottleneck.
- No Academy bonus.
- GP pollution, especially for the 1st GP born there.
- Other cities may share the food with Constantinople, for instance, the horse site and the wine site.
The major benefit of building TGL and NE there is from NE, which is not that great since we will only run limited turns of CS + Pacifism + golden age. As I said previous, the value of more GPs is uncertain, either 1 more GS or nothing, which also depends on whether the GPs or beakers are the bottleneck.
I can see an argument that we want to use the CR2 against the archer that is most likley to require three axemen. But then starting with CR1 axemen should work.
Looking at procent chance to win does not tell us much expect that stronger units are better. What we should look at is the chance of an archer winning against 1 CR1 axe and 1 unpromoted axe depending on which order they attack.
I made the calculations now.
CR1 then unpromoted gives archer 22.5% chance to survive two attacks
unpromoted then CR1 gives archer 23% chance to survive two attacks.
Not a big difference but CR1 first has 4% better chance to kill the archer in one attack.
Looking at procent chance to win does not tell us much expect that stronger units are better. What we should look at is the chance of an archer winning against 1 CR1 axe and 1 unpromoted axe depending on which order they attack.
I made the calculations now.
CR1 then unpromoted gives archer 22.5% chance to survive two attacks
unpromoted then CR1 gives archer 23% chance to survive two attacks.
Not a big difference but CR1 first has 4% better chance to kill the archer in one attack.
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
Have to read new posts first
Am I still up for the battles today or is someone else doing it?
^^^^ yes, although you can post one battle at a time if you'd like and ask for feedback (although this is not necessary). My hardware caused me to make several mistakes during tests (like several units being grouped together and wandering south), which is why I am reluctant to do it myself.
If you look in the top right hand corner of my test map, you'll see some Lions that were added by accident.
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I don't mind whether a City Raider I or an unpromoted Axe attacks first. Test, if you'd like, and pick whichever you prefer.
I wouldn't spend too much time testing. Just enough to feel comfortable. There is only so much we can do to influence RNG.
I think the defenders in the real game will be a little softer than the test, because one of the Combat I barbs was built on T61, so only has a 5% fortification bonus.
If you look in the top right hand corner of my test map, you'll see some Lions that were added by accident.
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I don't mind whether a City Raider I or an unpromoted Axe attacks first. Test, if you'd like, and pick whichever you prefer.
I wouldn't spend too much time testing. Just enough to feel comfortable.
There is only so much we can do to influence RNG.I think the defenders in the real game will be a little softer than the test, because one of the Combat I barbs was built on T61, so only has a 5% fortification bonus.
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
OK I'll be active for the next 3 hours, let's do this right ^^
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
Ok I made a few tests and am fairly compfortable to try it out.
Folket convinced me about going with the CRs I first.
So it would go:
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
If an Archer is unwounded, unpromoted attacks, if not CRII attacks if chance of winning > to ??, otherwise CbI attacks
Then go from there (I'll probably make sure with you beforehand and also a this point)
What are the odds with which we should attack with CRII? (not sure I understand Duckweed's 2:1 ratio thing)
Green light?
Folket convinced me about going with the CRs I first.
So it would go:
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
CRI attacks
If an Archer is unwounded, unpromoted attacks, if not CRII attacks if chance of winning > to ??, otherwise CbI attacks
Then go from there (I'll probably make sure with you beforehand and also a this point)
What are the odds with which we should attack with CRII? (not sure I understand Duckweed's 2:1 ratio thing)
Green light?
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
OK 2 first battles are over. Not gonna lie, it went kossinly
First battle, promote to CRI:
Axe dies leaving a 1.9 Cb I Archer. Not great but not bad.
Second battle, promote to CRI:
And unfortunately Axe dies without wounding:
Next in line also has ~23% winning odds (18.5% if unpromoted).
It's tough luck but I don't see any reason to not stick to plan for now... will wait for feedback
First battle, promote to CRI:
Spoiler :
Axe dies leaving a 1.9 Cb I Archer. Not great but not bad.
Second battle, promote to CRI:
Spoiler :
And unfortunately Axe dies without wounding:
Spoiler :
Next in line also has ~23% winning odds (18.5% if unpromoted).
It's tough luck but I don't see any reason to not stick to plan for now... will wait for feedback
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
Ugh.
2 more Axes die. The first one leaves a 1.9 Archer and the second a 2.5 Archer...
Now we're down to 5 Axes : 1 CRII, 1 CbI, 1 CbI/Shock (4.5/5), 1 Unpromoted, 1 WII - facing:
The full health Cb1 Archer has 10% fortify bonus, the wounded 25%.
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CbI as suggested by DW? Retreat??
2 more Axes die. The first one leaves a 1.9 Archer and the second a 2.5 Archer...
Now we're down to 5 Axes : 1 CRII, 1 CbI, 1 CbI/Shock (4.5/5), 1 Unpromoted, 1 WII - facing:
The full health Cb1 Archer has 10% fortify bonus, the wounded 25%.
------------
CbI as suggested by DW? Retreat??
pomthom
Drive & Reverb
OK. BTW Doshin was this the other Longbow you mentioned?
