
Ok - let's crunch some digits
Current powers:
You: 1,088,000 ( = "
MasterPower" for negotiations)
Mehmed: you/1.9 = ca. 573,000
Hatty: Rival Worst = 211,000
Rival Average: 552,142
Total Average: "
AveragePower" = (7*RivalAverage+You)/8 = 619,124
Mehmed + Hatty: "
Power_MehmedHatty" = ca. 784,000
Mehmed's VassalPowerModifier (xml): 0
Mehmed calculates his power for negotiations: "
VassalPower" = (Power_Mehmed+Power_Hatty)*(140+VassalPowerModifier)/100 = 1,097,600 (the default power multiplier 140 is hard coded!)
Check 1 - Mehmed vs Invader (=you):
+ Adjustment of MasterPower for war success (WS) ratio:
MasterPower = MasterPower * [0 ... 2]
An example: You conquer 5 cities (WS = 50) and kill 50 units (WS = 200) without losing a single unit (WS is at least 10 for everybody!)
WS_Master = 250; WS_Vassal = 10 --> MasterPower = MasterPower * 2 * WS_Master / (WS_Master + WS_Vassal) = MasterPower * 500 / 260 = MasterPower * 1.92
{If a 3rd player has a higher WS vs the target than you then the target gets the difference: WS_Vassal = WS_Vassal + (WS_3rdPlayer - WS_Master)}
+ Conditional adjustment of MasterPower for worst enemy:
MasterPower = MasterPower * 3/4
Power check: VassalPower > 2/3 * MasterPower ? -->
"We are doing fine on our own!"
Conclusion: If you redeclare on Mehmed you will be his Worst Enemy again (right now it's Augustus). Without consideration of any war successes the check goes:
VassalPower = 1,097,600 vs. 2/3 * 3/4 * MasterPower = 1/2 * MasterPower = 544,000 --> DENIAL!
But with a bit of war success decreasing Mehmed's and increasing your power you should not have any problem to pass this test.
Check 2 - Mehmed vs Average:
+ Conditional adjustment of AveragePower for Mehmed being a
LandTarget for other players (= additional threats "raise the average"; LandTarget = at least 1 city in other player's primary area + at least 8 landplots adjacent to other player's land territory anywhere on the map):
- If Mehmed is a valid LandTarget for a 3rd player who's power is greater than Mehmed's power (vassal power included for both):
AveragePower = AveragePower * 2 * Power_3rdPlayer / (Power_3rdPlayer + Power_MehmedHatty)
- If Mehmed is a valid LandTarget for a 3rd player who is your ally in your war vs. Mehmed:
AveragePower = AveragePower * (MasterPower + Power_MehmedHatty) / Power_MehmedHatty
Power check: VassalPower > AveragePower ? -->
"We are doing fine on our own!" (This is where they made capitulation easier in 3.17, check was VassalPower > 3/4 * AveragePower in 3.13.)
Conclusion: Currently Mehmed is a valid LandTarget for Saladin and Darius, but both are weaker than MehmedHatty so the AveragePower would not change unless they join you in your war vs. Mehmed.
VassalPower = 1,097,600 vs. AveragePower = 619,124 --> DENIAL!
- Killing Hatty would increase the AveragePower to 677,427 and decrease Mehmed's VassalPower to 816,200 (remember the hard coded 140!) --> still not enough to pass the test.
- Reducing Mehmed to Hatty's anemic power level but letting Hatty live would change AveragePower to 573,874 and Mehmed's VassalPower to 590,800 --> still no capitulation.
- But the LandTarget factor is quite significant. Say you ask Darius to join your war, this will increase AveragePower to 1,478,316!!! --> capitulation.
- Alternatively you could gift Konya to Augustus and thus turn Mehmed into a valid LandTarget for him. Since Augustus is stronger than MehmedHatty this would increase the AveragePower even without a war between them but only marginally to 639,338. Thus having a suitable war ally is the way to go here. Also note, that the power of this war ally is irrelevant, so a very weak ally should be optimal in order to avoid capitulation to the wrong player.
All in all I got to agree with TMIT in that the way these mechanics are coded is very intuitive and well documented.
Your game:
I think you don't need to fear any German AP cheese right now, because as you mentioned, Saladin lacks a Confu city and he is running his favorite civic Theocracy - so no spread possible (the AI is not familiar with the Missionary gifting exploit).
Ze Germans hev zeir hends full, ja!
Edit: just checked again and found that Mehmed is not a valid LandTarget for Saladin due to lacking 1 adjacent land plot.