[BTS] SGOTM 26 - Home Slices

[WastinTime]

When peter gets his next tech or before meeting SB -- whichever is first,
sell him Mono, so he doesn't get if from SB or research it.
Then, when we bribe him to Confu with something, that's tech #5 (+1 diplo).
So watch peter's boat and watch if SB could sail out to meet him earlier than you think.

After the medi deal with SB, I think we try for a few coins for Math.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'm mulling updating the PPP with all the diplo stuff and playing 3 turns.

What is the team's stance on 100% slider on Peter T107?

 

[WastinTime]

What is the team's stance on 100% slider on Peter T107?

strongly

 

[Kaitzilla]

Alright.

How about gifting Peter Monotheism right now since we don't know what he is teching?

 

[MirrorGuard]

Alright.

How about gifting Peter Monotheism right now since we don't know what he is teching?

I don't think he is teching Mono. The # of turns between he switched to hereditary and he got alphabet can be used as an indicator of his research speed. Now he is boosted by bureaucracy. Is he too slow to complete Monotheism within 2 turns?

 

[WastinTime]

How about gifting Peter Monotheism right now since we don't know what he is teching?

How much can you get for it?

 

[Mitchum]

If I understand it correctly, ep expenditure is for the decision whether we should tech MC next. After Oxford starts matriculation at T111, we need to start research. So we only want to find out if Peter is in one of the following cases: straight MC/ small tech-> MC/ currency MC. Any other possibilities we don't care. How about this: we decide later at ETA of Peter's currency assuming he went straight for it after alphabet. If he completes no new tech by then, we won't use ep slider. This means he is either doing MC( we go for partial MC->Peter completes it we switch to feudal aesthetics)or feudalism( we do MC machinery). Otherwise we resort to ep slider to see what he is working on.

I don't fully understand this post but I think MG is suggesting that we can deduce what Pete is teching based on when he should learn his next tech based on his assumed tech rate. If he hasn't learned a tech by the time we deduce he could learn Currency, then we use the EP slider.

Can we figure out his burea-enhanced tech rate and then list a turn number when he'd learn each of the techs we're waiting for?

 

[LowtherCastle]

What is the team's stance on 100% slider on Peter T107?

Defer to you guys, although Peter teching Currency seems like huge waste. Or teching anything we have or don’t need.

On Mono, I think we need to focus on having something available tor Peter ToA failgold. That’s super valuable. And tradeworthy techs for Philo.

 

[WastinTime]

Peter ToA failgold.

Even if he gets failgold, I don't think he will offer much if any unless he's in anarchy.

hasn't learned a tech by the time we deduce he could learn Currency, then we use the EP slider.

I think MG said we don't use the slider if he hasn't learned a tech.
I just wanna know, on T111, what he's been doing, and we will know that without EPs, cus either
a) he will learn something between now and then, and we will see that, or
b) he is researching Feudal.

Can we figure out his burea-enhanced tech rate

Figure 100bpt. At least 90.

 

[Mitchum]

Per the PPP, T110 is when we crank up the slider to 100%, not T111. Should we make the EP slider decision on T110 instead?

 

[WastinTime]

Per the PPP, T110 is when we crank up the slider to 100%, not T111. Should we make the EP slider decision on T110 instead?

PPP T110 is debatable yet. Just trying to get to 108.
oxford is not til 111.

 

[WastinTime]

I guess Kait's just trying to start researching again ASAP as long as we don't run out of money.
Not concerned about Oxford or not.
New $$ comes T116.

 

[WastinTime]

Hey, I just realized that if we had waited to try to get free Poly (including forcing SB to meet Peter), we would have been denied cus ToA, so I'm even happier we self-researched it.
Reminds me, if we see Aes, we gotta get it fast before a wonder starts.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Peter's current tech rate?
Here are the results of the last 3 turnsets.

IBT: forest grows at Whales

T93
3 - seafood island (Peter's area) Wow. he has a lot of seafood (no fish)
Red Light

wb can see one tile farther than the chariot.
Ice blockage. And fog gazing shows the north passage is blocked too, right? Chariot woulda seen that.

resuming...

T94
We indeed see a horse blocking our wb.
Impossible to lose Mids now. Amazing that it's exactly 500h

IBT
Peter : Heriditary Rule (Monarchy!) Doh, not Alpha

Forest grows in our National Park!

T95
Scouting report
We have 100% scouted Peter's pre-Astronomy land (unless he can make a culture bridge thru the ocean.) There are 5 tiles of darkness preventing circum-nav, so even a +1 vis chariot on both ends would not help. And optics is +2 sight right? that also doesn't help. We need a caravel.
Peter has two, triple-seafood, 1-tile islands plus a third we can't see all the water yet.

There's also a report of a huge pile of stone stacked neatly in a triangle shape.

Turnset Complete. Uploaded

Spoiler Log :

Turn 91, 600 BC: Confucianism has spread in Profit.
Turn 91, 600 BC: The borders of Canal have expanded!

Turn 93, 550 BC: Cows has grown to size 4.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Canal has grown to size 5.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Canal has become unhappy.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Silver has grown to size 8.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Whales has grown to size 5.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Clearing a Forest will create 13 ℤ for Cows.
Turn 93, 550 BC: Clams will grow to size 4 on the next turn.

Turn 94, 525 BC: Science will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Canal will become unhappy on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clams has grown to size 4.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clams can hurry Galley for 2⇴ with 16ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 16 turns.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 24 ℤ for Cows.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clearing a Forest will create 13 ℤ for Canal.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 13 ℤ for Cows.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Science will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Cows will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Canal will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Silver will grow to size 9 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Profit will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clams will grow to size 3 on the next turn.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Lady Stoneheart has completed The Pyramids!
Turn 94, 525 BC: Canal can no longer work on The Pyramids. The lost ℤ is converted into 98ℴ!
Turn 94, 525 BC: Silver can no longer work on The Pyramids. The lost ℤ is converted into 62ℴ!
Turn 94, 525 BC: Whales can no longer work on The Pyramids. The lost ℤ is converted into 138ℴ!
Turn 94, 525 BC: Clams can no longer work on The Pyramids. The lost ℤ is converted into 264ℴ!
Turn 94, 525 BC: You have trained a Galley in Clams. Work has now begun on a Library.
Turn 94, 525 BC: Peter adopts Hereditary Rule!
Turn 94, 525 BC: A Forest has grown near Science!

Turn 95, 500 BC: Science has grown to size 7.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Science has become unhappy.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Science can hurry Confucian Missionary for 1⇴ with 24ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 32 turns.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Cows has grown to size 5.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Canal has grown to size 6.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Canal has become unhappy.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Silver has grown to size 9.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Profit has grown to size 4.

Turnset report T95~T105
using Kaitzilla's updated PPP

T95
The tile 1E of ice is ocean. Workboat is completely blocked. It will return to net the 3rd seafood of canal.

T96 nothing happens
Oh no. SB scout moving North..

T97
The scout immediately knew his fate when he stepped on the island. No path to new world.
....Peter's wb started sailing around Profit island....

T98~T99 nothing happens

T100
We have paper. SB's and Peter's map cost 5 gold each. A great scientist is born in Novgorod.
When the galley sailed past SB's capital, chariot driver didn't see a library in Cahokia. But the settler was found there.
SB has 1 gold/turn. I sold him a fur for gold.

T101
The largest civilizations: Peter is the 5th. SB is the 7th.
Peter probably used the great scientist to bulb alphabet.
Game paused and saved.

Spoiler Upload log :

Reference number: 16323
Game: C-IV SGOTM 26
Your team: Home Slices
Your name: MirrorGuard
Date submitted: 2020-06-18
Software Version: BtS 3.19
Game date: 350BC
Total turns played: 101
Session turns played: 6
Player race: Celt
Firaxis score: 858
Session time played (hh:mm:ss): 00:52:43
Total time played (hh:mm:ss): 26:37:11
Game status: Incomplete
Submitted save: Lady Stoneheart BC-0350_HomeSlices_Intermediate_T101.CivBeyondSwordSave
Renamed file: Home_Slices_SG026_BC0350_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

Spoiler Upload log :

Right click the Renamed File link above to copy it.
You can then paste it into your team post as the download link for the next player.


Here is your Session Turn Log from 500 BC to 350 BC:

Turn 95, 500 BC: The revolution has begun!!!
Turn 95, 500 BC: Lady Stoneheart adopts Representation!
Turn 95, 500 BC: Lady Stoneheart adopts Caste System!
Turn 95, 500 BC: Science can no longer work on The Pyramids. The lost ℤ is converted into 498ℴ!
Turn 95, 500 BC: The anarchy is over! Your government is re-established.
Turn 95, 500 BC: Sitting Bull adopts Hereditary Rule!

Turn 96, 475 BC: The revolution has begun!!!
Turn 96, 475 BC: Lady Stoneheart converts to Confucianism!
Turn 96, 475 BC: The anarchy is over! Your government is re-established.

Turn 97, 450 BC: You have constructed a Lighthouse in Profit. Work has now begun on a Wealth.
Turn 97, 450 BC: You have constructed a Lighthouse in Whales. Work has now begun on a Wealth.

Turn 99, 400 BC: Cows has grown to size 6.
Turn 99, 400 BC: Profit has grown to size 3.
Turn 99, 400 BC: Whales has grown to size 5.
Turn 99, 400 BC: Clams has grown to size 4.
Turn 99, 400 BC: The borders of Silver are about to expand.
Turn 99, 400 BC: Clearing a Forest will create 9 ℤ for Canal.
Turn 99, 400 BC: Canal will grow to size 8 on the next turn.
Turn 99, 400 BC: You have discovered Paper!
Turn 99, 400 BC: The borders of Silver have expanded!
Turn 99, 400 BC: Alhazen (Great Scientist) has been born in Novgorod (Peter)!

Turn 100, 375 BC: Canal has grown to size 8.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Will Trade Map: Peter, Sitting Bull
Turn 100, 375 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 9 ℤ for Canal.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Science will grow to size 8 on the next turn.
Turn 100, 375 BC: Whales will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 100, 375 BC: You have discovered Polytheism!

Turn 101, 350 BC: Science has grown to size 8.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Whales has grown to size 6.
Turn 101, 350 BC: Peter will trade Alphabet, Monarchy

You may wish to copy it to Notepad for reference when you write your turn set post. It includes any entries you added with the in-game Chat facility

Spoiler Peter's Techs :

Turnset report #2

continuing from #1

T101~

T102
The bribery costs 45g+Meditation. I don't add monotheism then.

Spoiler SB techs :

No wonder SB has no library...Should I sell him writing? But 10 gold is...too little.
Moscow SW and island SE corner revealed. Ocean. Only 1 tile SE of clam remains fogged.

T103
!! The GS bulbed Philosophy. Rostov is the holy city. Is there anything we can do about it?

Spoiler :

SB now has 30 gold and he wants to pay 15 for writing.
Game paused.

Sell writing to SB for 15g.

T104
No "Peter converts to Taoism" message this turn. Guess he will do it when free missionary spreads Taoism to Moscow.

T105
I made 1 extra chariot step onto the new world island. Just can't resist the temptation of a lucky draw.

Spoiler :

Beyond the ice blockage is there a world you long to see~~~~
Peter converted to Taoism. Now Moscow has Taoism.

END of turnset. Game uploaded

I tried to estimate Peter's tech earlier, but I was wrong!

Gift the scout to Russia and sail it around on our boat?
Oops, can't actually do that.

Yes, the Scout will likely be dead soon.



Sitting Bull has no Libraries.
His capital also has no Lighthouse.

Peter has 3 Libraries and 3 Lighthouses!

Spoiler :

Let's see, Peter's estimated tech rate.

Spoiler :

Alphabet will cost Emperor Peter 372

Moscow (Library): +3 from trade route to us. +8 from palace +1 from tile
Sheep, Cow, Horse, Silver, Coast? = +7
+19 commerce

Novgorod (Library): +3 from trade route +1 from tile
Clam, Coast?, Coast? = +6
+10 commerce

St. Petersburg (Library): +3 from trade route +1 from tile
Crab, Deer, Coast?, PMine? = +5
Crab, Deer, x2 Wine in the future will be +9
+9 commerce from now, +13 in future or more if city grows from higher happy cap

Yaroslav: +3 from trade route +1 from tile
unimproved/Improved Clam = +2
+6 commerce

Rostov: +3 from trade route to us +1 from tile
unimproved/Improved Clam = +2

+6 commerce



At 100% slider Russia working these tiles would do 59 per turn.

At a more realistic 70% slider, it would be 41 per turn.



Add in hidden +1 and multiply by 1.2 for knowing Writing, and Peter will have Alphabet done in 372 / 50 = 8 turns at 70% slider.

Assuming Peter converted to Hereditary Rule as soon as he got it, which is reasonable since it was his first civic change, Peter actually teched Alphabet in 6 turns.
Revise his slider rate to 80% slider (47 per turn), and he would have had Alphabet done in 372/5 = 6.52 turns.
Maybe Peter had some overflow from Monarchy?
Or Peter's cities grew after T95 and he hooked up wine fast? Hmm


Peter's Current Tech rate?
Peter teched on T101.
He was in Anarchy on T102 from our bribe.
Peter teched on T103 and T104 with Bureau bonus.

Here is Peter's Cities on T105​

Spoiler :

And here is Sitting Bull on T105 too​

Spoiler :

Moscow (Library): +3 from trade route to us. +8 from palace +1 from tile
Sheep, Cow, Horse, Silver, Coast?, PlainsRiverfarm? = +10
+22 commerce * 50% bureau bonus = +33 commerce * 1.25 from library = 41.25

Novgorod (Library): +3 from trade route +1 from tile
Clam, Coast?, Coast? = +6
+10 commerce *1.25 from library = 12.5

St. Petersburg (Library): +3 from trade route +1 from tile
Crab, Deer, x2 Wine = +10
+14 commerce *1.25 from library = 17.5

Yaroslav: +3 from trade route +1 from tile
Clam = +2
+6 commerce

Rostov: +3 from trade route to us +1 from tile
Clam = +2

+6 commerce

100% slider is 83.25 per turn estimate.
Add in 1 and multiply by 1.2 for knowing the prereq.

Assuming 80% slider
T101 - +60
T102 - Anarchy
T103 - +80
T104 - +80
+220 in something right now.
Or +256 in Currency since he knows Math+Alphabet
Maybe add on another 4% since we know Monotheism/Currency/Paper since we already know those 3.

Emperor AI techs cost about 80% of what we pay:
Currency - 496
Monotheism - 149
Paper - 744
Nationalism - 2232
Feudalism - 868
Aesthetics - 372
Calendar - 434
Horseback Riding - 310
Metal Casting - 558
Compass - 496
Construction - 434

I don't think he is teching Mono. The # of turns between he switched to hereditary and he got alphabet can be used as an indicator of his research speed. Now he is boosted by bureaucracy. Is he too slow to complete Monotheism within 2 turns?

Peter is not teching Monotheism, because he would already have it and we could not trade for it.
Good idea. ​

 

[Kaitzilla]

When peter gets his next tech or before meeting SB -- whichever is first,
sell him Mono, so he doesn't get if from SB or research it.
Then, when we bribe him to Confu with something, that's tech #5 (+1 diplo).
So watch peter's boat and watch if SB could sail out to meet him earlier than you think.

After the medi deal with SB, I think we try for a few coins for Math.

Yes, I now think we should hang on to Monotheism until Peter and Sitting Bull are about to meet.

 

[WastinTime]

Peter had another turn of anarchy for Tao (104 I think, if it matters)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Peter had another turn of anarchy for Tao (104 I think, if it matters)

Gah! I missed that.

Assuming 80% slider
T101 - +60
T102 - Anarchy
T103 - +80
T104 - Anarchy
+140 in something right now.
Or +153 in Currency since he knows Math+Alphabet
Maybe add on another 4% since we know Monotheism/Currency/Paper and Peter has met us.

Emperor AI techs cost about 80% of what we pay I think:
Currency - 496
Monotheism - 149
Paper - 744
Nationalism - 2232
Feudalism - 868
Aesthetics - 372
Calendar - 434
Horseback Riding - 310
Metal Casting - 558
Compass - 496
Construction - 434

Peter probably is not teching Monotheism since with any overflow at all, he'd have it at the start of our T104 I think. ​

 

[Kaitzilla]

I changed my mind on Paper demands. I think we have to give Peter just about anything he wants. Paper included.
Unless testing shows that the would 100% pick Edu/Lib. We should be fine. I think he will have higher priorities.
In fact, if he does choose Edu, he would need low-odds GS to bulb Edu to finish it fast enough to race us..
And what if he does get Liberalism first?
That means:
a) we get free Liberalism
b) we can probably make him take Free Astronomy and then we get that free too.

I tried to test this as best as I could.
I gave 8 Peter's 70 turns to tech what they wanted, then using world builder gave them everything our Peter has, plus Paper.

Pressing next turn a lot of times....
1) Monotheism -> Aesthetics -> Construction
2) Monotheism -> Construction -> Currency
3) Monotheism -> Construction -> Calendar
4) Monotheism -> Construction -> Currency
5) Compass -> Construction
6) Calendar -> Currency
7) Calendar -> Aesthetics
8) Calendar -> Feudalism

Not seeing a lot of Education -> Liberalism

 

[WastinTime]

Not seeing a lot of Education -> Liberalism

Right, I believe they have to do a certain amt of low level tech before they can beeline too many eras ahead.
I decided to get some exercise and do some code diving.
Finally lifting the veil on research picks.

Sometimes it's a couple lines of code. Or maybe a dozen... or 100?

about 1400 lines of code for AI_bestTech function!
Lemme skim it and see what I can find.

The first thing I noticed was the 'research depth' or 'max path' is 3 deep. I was expecting 2.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Kait, what makes you think Peter is running 80% slider? Base on maintenance costs?