[BTS] SGOTM 26 - Home Slices

[WastinTime]

So refuse to cancel deals with SB.

let's just not make a rule here. Depends.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Is a GM 1500g trade mission in the near future worth more than a GE for Eiffel?

Eiffel is nice because all our cities get 1 happiness and it saves us a whole tech if we are doing conquest.

But without iron, Eiffel and conquest both get harder.
Hmm.

Might have to wait 2 turns to decide.

 

[Kaitzilla]

We can bribe him to Slavery T128, before we revolt, if he’s not teching Optics.

Or bribe him to Slavery between GAs.

I think we might be committed to caste between golden ages.

Slavery would be T128 before civic switch only.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Solution!

Settle Confu in Yekaterinburg (Iron City) NOW! Vladivostok is just as food-starved. It’s closer but big whoopee.

Buy Compass now. Wait till next turn to see what Peter is teching and how fast.

Are we in a huge hurry for Optics? Can’t we wait for Peter to tech it for us?

 

[WastinTime]

Are we in a huge hurry for Optics? Can’t we wait for Peter to tech it for us?

maybe you're right. I think we're just excited to meet the others.

Settle Confu in Yekaterinburg

Clever thinking! I wasn't considering that, cus I was assuming Vlad will get autospread too easily. What's the formula? is it just distance? or is it also different landmass matters?

Still undecided.

 

[LowtherCastle]

It is as 7pop on T127.
The only way to know for sure the hammers per turn is to record the espionage values each turn.

I would estimate 12 to 24 per turn with bureau bonus.
The city tiles is 2 hammers, the horse is 4, and the cow is 2 which will all get worked at all times.
Silver mine and plains hill mine and plains farm are all optional.

15hpt at p7 unless he’s starving himself. He just finished some build. Harbor costs him 68h. ~4t. I predict he’ll complete it T131 without revolt.

If we want Peter to REX and stay in Confu, I think we should revolt him to Slavery+OR this turn, settle Confu in Moscow when the Miss gets there.

Or will Peter whip Confu misses anywhere?

 

[LowtherCastle]

When will we be back in OR, if ever?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I was assuming Vlad will get autospread too easily. What's the formula? is it just distance? or is it also different landmass matters?.

DanF:

Vlad (7) = 2% chance per turn
Yekat (12) = 0.7%

I agree that a Shrine is not optimal in a regular game or even a HOF game with selected AI opponents where you try to get the earliest AP victory date. In these games taking the 'controlled' route via perfectly timed Missionary spread through uncomplicated open borders is certainly better. But in this SGOTM the religious and diplomatic situation is very different, turning the Shrine in my view into a very useful tool.

The Kashi does increase the chances of natural Hindu spread -- it at least doubles the likelihood; due to integer math the increase is often even greater (0.1%->0.3% = factor 3 for distant cities):

View attachment 314946

Natural spread of religion solely needs connectivity of the Holy City and the receiving city, it does not require actual trade routes or open borders, it doesn't even need established contact!
In a test game I got natural Hindu spread to the green city in the NW belonging to an AI I hadn't met yet:

View attachment 314947

Connectivity to Delhi was established by the unknown AI via Sailing network through Hammu's culture and the bridge indicated by the arrows where the borders touch. In order be connected, tiles need to be either revealed or owned by anyone not hostile. So the AI got Delhi connected to its city along a path of unrevealed river tiles that are located within 'friendly' culture. Contact was made later upon construction of the AP.

The lack of control of natural spread is an issue, but it is not solely bound to the existence of the Shrine. Imho the benefit of automatic cost-free spreads into 'difficult' cities sparing us the high expenses of controlled spreads and thus saving us many turns should surely outweigh the risk of too many 'unwanted' spreads.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Btw, iiuc DanF, there may now be “connectivity” to the New World for religion spread. Unless it can’t connect across a defogged ocean tile.

 

[LowtherCastle]

WT, any chance OR influences Peter’s decision to stay in Confu or switch to Tao?

 

[WastinTime]

WT, any chance OR influences Peter’s decision to stay in Confu or switch to Tao?

small chance--I didn't study too closely, but I don't think so

When will we be back in OR, if ever?

T148 we do OR. Lots of buildings to do. I'm not sure Pacifism would yield an extra GP before the end of the game.

Vlad (7) = 2%

3 times more likely, but I suppose we could roll the dice.

 

[LowtherCastle]

3 times more likely, but I suppose we could roll the dice.

If we don’t get him spreading Confu, we’re going to lose it. Does that matter? Moscow is his hammer city. We have a 91% success chance there. Then he’s in Confu the rest of the game. No more Confu Misses.

Btw, if you buy 3 Powerball tickets, you’re 3x more likely to win tgan with one. Pro Tip.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Confu Miss at Peter’s

tl;dr:
T127 Peter into Slavery and OR
T128 spread Confu to Vlad

Refuse Peter’s demand to stop SB trading until our caravel is through SB’s Canal City (for circumnavigation)

We have three basic choices here.
1. Slavery now, next turn or later.
2. Confu Miss in Yekat now, Vlad next turn, or Moscow later.
3. OR now, next turn (w/Slavery), or later.

What do we have to lose?
1. Optics if he techs it soon and flips out of Confu.
2. Negmods if we refuse a demand.
3. Slower Optics.

We can get him back into Confu later, if needed. At some cost.

To me, the most rational choice, given our understanding of the code, is to put Confu in Yekat and revolt Peter into Slavery and OR now. That maximizes our chances of getting Optics for free.

 

[WastinTime]

a) Are you planning to give Peter Lit + Banking? cus it would take that

b) There's no need to spread to Yekat if we're going to put Peter in Anarchy. We might as well do Vlad in that case.
We only do Yekat if we leave him out of Anarchy.

 

[LowtherCastle]

a) Are you planning to give Peter Lit + Banking? cus it would take that

b) There's no need to spread to Yekat if we're going to put Peter in Anarchy. We might as well do Vlad in that case.
We only do Yekat if we leave him out of Anarchy.

Ok. Corrected above. Why not give Lit?

 

[WastinTime]

Why not give Lit?

I have no problem giving that. Just was asking if you were aware we'd use that up.
It could be good for bribing back to Confu. But more likely, He'll just wast time researching it.
He could even get it in 1 turn and we'd miss out on the +1 tech gift.

What's the # of cities/# of civic changes where Anarchy goes to 2 turns?

 

[LowtherCastle]

What's the # of cities/# of civic changes where Anarchy goes to 2 turns?

13, iirc.

 

[LowtherCastle]

<snip>.

 

[WastinTime]

Are we in a huge hurry for Optics? Can’t we wait for Peter to tech it for us?

I'm not sure why you crossed this out. You're exactly right. I think a while back when we had early Astronomy on the brain we figured, if Peter didn't do optics next we were going to, and we got excited to see the AI once borders popped and we saw HolyRome.

Seems cheap when you say it's '1 turn', but that's with overflow. It's 1000-ish We don't need it until T146, so Peter should get us that free.
We might as well take it out of the plan and put Econ in there cus I can't think of a reason to tech Optics next. We don't even need the whale happy.

I'd like to see Peter get us Engineering and Optics, so we have to hold off on those as long as possible.
Plenty to do....
Econ, Nat, GunP, Const, Corp (some Lib if we have to), PPress after we bulb it.

I don't want barracks rt now either. Hammer cities like Profit and Cows need to do mostly wealth.

I don't see any reason for a mini 2t turnset either. MG has 8 to go, that'll take us up to before civics switches.

 

[Kaitzilla]

What's the best way to get the trade mission moving if we won't have caravels?