[BTS] SGOTM 26 - Home Slices

[Mitchum]

How many hammers is a harbor for Peter again? We don't NEED the gold until we have to spread Sushi so we could run 0% slider for a turn or two if we wanted, right? I don't think we'll be able to keep the slider at 100% with all of the Sushi spreads so I'm not opposed to holding off another turn or two.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Caravel blocks the path and preserves the 10% defensive bonus. We don’t care about killing SBs galleys, just protecting Canal nets.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Peter’s harbor is 68h unless its cheaper in more modern eras.

 

[Mitchum]

Since Mesa Verde only has 1 LB, should we consider taking it out next turn? Next turn, we could have 2 muskets and an amphibious musket+chariot against 1 longbow.

If we wait a turn, I can pillage the incense this turn while one musket heals and attack on T156 w/3 muskets, 1 chariot and 2 more amphibious muskets.

We win either way but I'm leaning toward the second option (attack on T156) for improved odds, unit preservation and bit of pillage gold.

Mesa Verde could have about 28 in a build by T156 which is not nearly enough to finish a LB. He could finish another Dog though, right? Or does a 35 axe/dog cost more than 28. He could actually get 9/turn if he were willing to starve his city but I don't know if the AI would do that rather than working the crab.

 

[Mitchum]

Peter’s harbor is 68h unless its cheaper in more modern eras.

Which is really 34 since he's Expansive and gets double production speed.

He has 31 now so he still needs 68-31 = 37 final or 19 base (assuming a harbor does cost 68). That's a stretch based on the tiles he has to work.

We could wait one turn and see if he puts 20+ into a build and if so, he's most likely working on a harbor.

I'm fine either cashing in now or waiting but it would be shame to lose 200 when we could have waited 2 more turns.

 

[Mitchum]

Peter wants 5 gpt for a Clam resource. He's got 5 extra. Why such a hard a$$?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Why such a hard a$$?

Petrified woodie?

 

[Mitchum]

I have a conference call. Ponder and provide feedback. I can pick it back up and advance the game a few more turns tomorrow.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Since Mesa Verde only has 1 LB, should we consider taking it out next turn? Next turn, we could have 2 muskets and an amphibious musket+chariot against 1 longbow.

If we wait a turn, I can pillage the incense this turn while one musket heals and attack on T156 w/3 muskets, 1 chariot and 2 more amphibious muskets.

We win either way but I'm leaning toward the second option (attack on T156) for improved odds, unit preservation and bit of pillage gold.

Mesa Verde could have about 28 in a build by T156 which is not nearly enough to finish a LB. He could finish another Dog though, right? Or does a 35 axe/dog cost more than 28. He could actually get 9/turn if he were willing to starve his city but I don't know if the AI would do that rather than working the crab.

Attack Mesa Verde?
Perhaps if our healthy musket crossed the river and stood on the mine.
The injured musket can heal where it is.

Then on T155, we'd have 9.9 vs. 11.7 plus 1-2 first strikes.
Hmm.
7hp musket across river, full musket off boat, chariot off boat
It might work ya, would all depend on the 1st attack doing a lot of damage.

**Edit**
Wait, does that Longbow have a +25% Fortify bonus?

Which is really 34 since he's Expansive and gets double production speed.

He has 31 now so he still needs 68-31 = 37 final or 19 base (assuming a harbor does cost 68). That's a stretch based on the tiles he has to work.

We could wait one turn and see if he puts 20+ into a build and if so, he's most likely working on a harbor.

I'm fine either cashing in now or waiting but it would be shame to lose 200 when we could have waited 2 more turns.

Peter must be bribed to do his civic switch soon.
Not sure if T156 is ok?

Perhaps we bribe Peter to Slavery now on T154, get the 60, lower our slider a bit , get capture gold next turn, and then hope he whips harbor.
Might be worth it for one more shot at +200

 

[LowtherCastle]

Which is really 34 since he's Expansive and gets double production speed.

He has 31 now so he still needs 68-31 = 37 final or 19 base (assuming a harbor does cost 68). That's a stretch based on the tiles he has to work.

We could wait one turn and see if he puts 20+ into a build and if so, he's most likely working on a harbor.

I'm fine either cashing in now or waiting but it would be shame to lose 200 when we could have waited 2 more turns.

Moscow have forge? Peter running bureau and OR?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Hard to believe Moscow hasn’t selected Harbor if it’s getting 200% discount

68/3=23base-h.

 

[Kaitzilla]

The odds are not so great if the Longbow has 25% Fortify.

It is 9.9 vs. 12.9
16% chance to win.

10% chance to do no damage.
17% chance to do 83hp
18.5% chance to do 66hp

Those are the bad outcomes. (10+17+18.5 = 45.5% chance if Fortified)
With 4/6 hp left on the Longbow, it is guaranteed to promoted to City Garrison 3 and heal if we do not kill it.
Next up is Musket on boat vs. Longbow.
Assume it went to 66hp.
It is 9.9 vs. 10.6
Again, good odds to do damage, but bad odds to win.

Once the Longbow wins that fight, it is the 7/9 hp musket across the river.

If everyone dies attacking and we fail to take Mesa Verde, we will lose the Worker too.


If the Longbow is not Fortified, then our odds get much better.

 

[Mitchum]

Moscow have forge? Peter running bureau and OR?

Good points. Peter is running Bureaucracy and OR. I don't see a forge though.

However, if he only has 31 after 1 turn (and may have had some OF from last turn's Caravel), he likely wouldn't have more than 62 after this turn, right? The planned Slavery switch on T155 slows the build down yet another turn unless we do the Slavery bribe this turn and hope he whips whatever he's building as Kait suggested.

Kait, didn't you calculate that the harbor was already nearly done several turns ago when he switched to the Caravel?

 

[Mitchum]

If the Longbow is not Fortified, then our odds get much better.

The LB has 5% fortification bonus this turn, 10% next turn.

Our wounded Musket needs 6 turns to heal so will only go from 6.6 to 7.0 if he heals this turn. If we were to attack next turn, wouldn't it be better to not have him heal and move this turn to avoid the 25% river penalty?

 

[LowtherCastle]

For a difference of 5% fornification bonus, I’d go with your later plan.

 

[Kaitzilla]

The LB has 5% fortification bonus this turn, 10% next turn.

Our wounded Musket needs 6 turns to heal so will only go from 6.6 to 7.0 if he heals this turn. If we were to attack next turn, wouldn't it be better to not have him heal and move this turn to avoid the 25% river penalty?

If he moves, the Catapult might roll back into the city and make a 2nd defender.

10% hmm

 

[WastinTime]

Caravel blocks the path and preserves the 10% defensive bonus. We don’t care about killing SBs galleys, just protecting Canal nets.

Agree

We win either way but I'm leaning toward the second option (attack on T156) for improved odds, unit preservation and bit of pillage gold.

Agree. unit preservation. He's gonna be in anarchy anyway.

Perhaps we bribe Peter to Slavery now on T154, get the 60, lower our slider a bit , get capture gold next turn, and then hope he whips harbor.
Might be worth it for one more shot at +200

seems wise.

it's still 154, right? Are we killing the Cat? then move back 155, 156 capture? We don't want it to run away after we raze.
Does the cat battle get us a promo?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Unless we’re thinking the capture gives us another turn at a Moscow harbor. If Moscow whips something next turn, the harbor could complete in one turn with OF.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Kait, didn't you calculate that the harbor was already nearly done several turns ago when he switched to the Caravel?

I think he switched builds from Harbor, but maybe I made a mistake.

Anyway, it was:

Moscow has 19
I'm not sure why it went down.
Did he switch builds from harbor to something else?
He had 46 in Harbor? on T149.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Are we dead certain Moscow doesn’t have a harbor (ie GM is still 1300g)?